The People’s National Congress Reform (PNCR), which was the main component in the now-ousted Partnership for National Unity-Alliance for Change (Apnu-AFC) government led by former president David Granger (2015-2020) is looking for a new leader to restore its electoral fortunes. It lost power in August 2020 to the People’s Progressive Party/Civic (PPP/C) led by President Irfaan Ali and his vice-president Bharrat Jagdeo, who was Guyana’s president from 1999-2011.
The loss of the 2020 election could not have been timed more badly for the PNCR, coming as it did just as Guyana’s newfound oil wealth was set to transform the economy. As the rest of the Caribbean (indeed, the world) has been suffering a desperate economic setback as a result of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, Guyana’s economy expanded by 43.5% in 2020 and its estimated growth for this year is 20.4%.
A World Bank (WB) study, its first systematic country diagnostic (SCD) for Guyana, dated November 2020, estimated that Guyana’s GDP could rise from US$4.3bn in 2019 to US$14.0bn in 2030, with the oil sector alone accounting for US$3.6bn at the end of the period. Assuming the population growth rate remains on its current trajectory, Guyana’s per capita GDP would exceed US$16,900 by 2030, as against less than US$5,000 in 2018.
It was precisely this prospect that motivated then-president Granger to ever more extravagant political and legal machinations to remain in power following the December 2018 no-confidence vote. It even took him five months to concede defeat after he lost the long-avoided 2 March 2020 general election.
Although the election was close, with 33 seats going to the PPP/C, 31 to Apnu-AFC, and one to A New and United Guyana, the PNCR faces an uphill struggle of fighting back against Guyana’s notorious incumbency-bias, a bias which can only have been further boosted by control of the country’s newly flowing oil wealth.
On 21 October, the current leader of the opposition, Joseph Harmon, threw his hat into the ring for a contest that will be decided at a party congress on 13 December. He did so with the launch of a 10-point agenda, but it was described in the Guyana Chronicle as “a routine, lacklustre, and basic presentation”. The same commentary added: “Harmon is no David Granger, Robert Corbin, Desmond Hoyte, or Forbes Burnham [all former leaders of the party]…He does not possess the oratory skills or disposition like previous PNC leaders.” And it concluded: “Harmon has neither the years of experience, statesmanship, intellectual aptitude, internationalism, deportment, and popularity to be successful in the race. Harmon failed in his bid to become party Chairman at the last election. He is now aiming higher and will need divine intervention to make him clinch the post of leader.”
The one commitment from Harmon that few would argue with was his pledge to try to widen the appeal of the PNCR, which is widely seen as a party of Afro-Guyanese. Harmon said: “The party must reach out to every sector of this society. They must reach out to every ethnicity and broaden that base; people must feel at home in the PNCR.”
Neither the current party leader, former president David Granger, nor current party chairman Volda Lawrence will seek election as party leader.
In addition to Harmon, one of the main contenders will be Aubrey Norton, a long-time party activist and former General Secretary of the PNCR who spent time in the foreign service. He is a strong supporter of the Apnu/AFC coalition, which he hopes to boost while rebuilding the PNCR. His main weakness (although it is perhaps not seen as such within the party) is that he is said to be highly Afro-centric. As one commentator put it, in a piece published online by DemeraraWaves: “Mr Norton comes over as too much of an Africanist for his own good, not so much as a potential leader for the PNC but for wider, diverse, and very polarised Guyana. To too many Indians, most likely others also, Mr Norton as a person and possible national political leader comes across as one very much in the mould of those notorious African dictators of old.”
This criticism of Norton has come from within the party as well as from outside. For example, one of Harmon’s prominent supporters, Roysdale Forde, pointedly said that “essential to consolidating the gains of the People’s National Congress Reform is recognising that the PNC is not a tribe…It is not a Black people party…A leader that is tribal, a leader that is tribalist cannot advance the cause of people that support the People’s National Congress.”
Norton responded by dismissing Forde’s insinuations that the PNCR would become a “Black Party” under his leadership as “laughable but mischievous”, and he listed various initiatives he had taken in the past to get the party to reach out to the Indo-Guyanese community.
The challenges ahead
No one doubts that Guyana has been highly blessed with the recent oil discoveries, but the challenges for whichever party is tasked with managing this wealth, and under whichever leadership, have been starkly highlighted by the WB and others. The WB’s SCD is “an assessment of the constraint a country faces and the opportunities it can take to accelerate progress in reducing poverty and improving living standards of its people”. As the WB points out, “Guyana is a small state with abundant natural resources, but the country has a legacy of jobless growth, and deep geographic disparities and inequalities. In 2018, Guyana’s national poverty headcount was among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean region at 43.4%.”
Another serious problem raised by the WB is that 39% of all Guyanese citizens currently reside abroad, and the rate is even higher (roughly half) among those with a tertiary education. It says that for the incoming oil wealth to translate into achieving long term and sustainable growth, that reaches all levels of the population, “good governance and strong public institutions are vital”, which is of course a major challenge for such a divided society.
The purpose of the WB’s SCD report was to map out “a vision of Guyana as a high-income economy on the path of inclusive and sustainable growth, with social cohesion and environmental resilience”. The starting point of the report is that the benefits of the newfound oil wealth will not be experienced by the majority of the population without good policy and sound governance. The report points out that, as oil exploration and production activities are currently located entirely offshore “with only modest ties to the nonoil economy”, public policy will play a major role in determining how the oil sector impacts the income levels and living standards of Guyanese households. The sector is expected to remain largely isolated from the larger economy “due to Guyana’s small manufacturing base and lack of specialized workforce skills”. Consequently, in the short-to-medium term, “public spending will be the major channel through which the oil sector impacts Guyana’s economic and social development”.
The report suggests several priority areas and related policy actions to maximise the benefits from the oil wealth for the maximum number of people, including:
- Achieving macroeconomic stability and environmental sustainability by:
- Balancing fiscal spending with the absorptive capacity of the economy and managing the exchange rate.
- Mitigating fiscal risks arising from climate change as well as ensuring environmental sustainability.
- Boosting investment in climate-resilient infrastructure and adherence to environmental protection standards to facilitate more sustainable development and urbanization.
- Establishing good public sector governance and effective management of the petroleum sector by:
- Addressing governance challenges in order to expand access to high quality public services; increasing government transparency and accountability “while sustainably managing the oil and gas sector and financial assets”; and encouraging greater public engagement and more collaboration among government agencies.
- Strengthening the public sector to deliver services and ramping up public spending on resilient infrastructure with environmental protection.
- Facilitating economic transformation and job creation by:
- Improving the business environment, maintaining public sector employment at sustainable levels, and leveraging untapped human and natural capital. (Employment rates are already relatively low in Guyana, with a 54.5% labour-force participation rate in 2017, lower than the regional average. Currently, limited competition, a weak business climate, and small, underdeveloped markets are some of the challenges limiting employment.)
- Investing in human capital through:
- Large-scale investments in education and health, along with infrastructure, to increase the opportunities for Guyanese people, including full coverage of basic services like improved water and sanitation, roads, electricity, primary and secondary education, healthcare, and financial services. Such full coverage of essential health and education services also needs to address the country’s geographic disparities. (The report notes that a child born today in Guyana will reach only 49% of their potential had they enjoyed complete education and full health.)
- Strengthening the social protection system, achieving universal health care, and developing quality systems for tertiary and technical education.
The SCD goes on to say that measures that support environmental sustainability and green growth in Guyana should underpin all these policy areas. In addition, basic conditions vary greatly across different regions of Guyana, so public policies should be adapted and prioritised to overcome these regional deficiencies and ensure successful development outcomes. The SCD suggests addressing the geographic disparities by identifying unmet development goals per region and “prioritising basic service delivery and infrastructure that match the needs in each region to support the social and economic well-being of all Guyanese”.