Turning pink again

The second wave of the pink tide is a reality and, as we’ve mentioned, there is a strong possibility that Brazil will add momentum by electing Lula in October of this year. Yet the outlook for the second wave is at best mixed. This is because in Latin America, as a rule, it is easier to win elections than to govern effectively. In addition, there is a fundamental disconnect of time scales. Most of the key problems – from poverty and low competitiveness, through to corruption, high crime rates, and low-quality education – will require persistent attention over the medium to long term, most likely measured in decades. Yet political leaders get elected between every four and six years, and, including mid-terms, elections occur roughly every two years. As a result, politicians face an enormous temptation to adopt populist approaches, using misinformation and ‘post truth’ marketing techniques.

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