Development: On 28 November the Venezuelan opposition
rejected the government's decree prohibiting any kind of public assembly on 3
December.
Significance: Most polls point to a comfortable win for President Hugo
Chávez on 3 December. Those commentators who prefer the polls which point to a
close finish, or even a possible victory for the president's main challenger,
Manuel Rosales, believe the government is gearing up to commit fraud. The most
optimistic among the opposition think that abstention has been massively
underestimated in the past, and that this time it is the government which will
suffer the consequences of lackadaisical supporters. Although there are plenty
of questionmarks around the nature of Chávez 's next term, the most pressing
imponderable is how the opposition will react after losing, fairly or unfairly,
on 3 December.
The government's decision to ban public meetings on Sunday follows an
editorial in the Caracas daily El Nuevo País, in which the editor Rafael Poleo
urged opposition supporters to back a plan to take to the streets following the
elections in an attempt to bring down Chávez . Poleo, whose wife was accused of
masterminding the murder of Danilo Anderson, the state prosecutor investigating
those behind the 2002 coup against Chávez , said he was basing the plan on the
events in the Ukraine in 2004, when opposition supporters occupied the streets
in Kiev to reject the results of a fraudulent election.
Poleo expressed his confidence that the defence minister, General Raúl
Baduel, "was not a communist" and would not use weapons against
"citizens who have the right to protest enshrined in the
constitution". However, Baduel has said he would act
"monolithically" against those who tried to undermine public order.
Around 110,000 troops are due to guard 11,118 polling booths around the country
on 3 December along with 18,900 reservists, labelled by the opposition as "Chávez 's
paramilitaries". None of the military personnel are allowed to ask voters
for ID, organise voter queues or ask for their fingerprints.
The opposition complained that members of the armed forces (FAN) have been
helping the government's cause by transporting Chavista supporters to his
rallies and intimidating Rosales's. They are also concerned that the decree
preventing meetings on election day will prevent the opposition from monitoring
developments at the polling booths.
Voting on Sunday will be done electronically, with a counterfoil to be placed
in the ballot boxes. Fifty-four per cent of the ballot boxes will be audited to
check for any inconsistencies between the electronic vote and the manual
receipt. One question raised by the opposition is whether the voting machines
will be connected to the National Electoral Council (CNE) system before or after
they have printed the original vote. The opposition believes the government
could be gearing up to commit fraud by connecting the machines beforehand. There
will be a 45-day period after the elections in which to challenge the results.
In total there will be 130 election observers from the EU, the Organization of
American States (OAS), the Carter Center and Mercosur but the CNE (four out of
five of whom are government supporters) has refused to allow an observer mission
from the Spanish parliament.
If the elections are fair and transparent, the main threat to Chávez appears
to be abstention. At the start of his campaign, the president's slogan was
"10 million votes down their throats" (there are only 16 million
voters in Venezuela), but this has gradually been phased out. Abstention has
been consistently underestimated in previous Venezuelan elections. In 1998 when
Chávez was first elected at the height of his popularity, abstention stood at
33%, when he was re-elected under the new constitution it was 43.7% and during
the recall referendum it was 30%. If Rosales has successfully convinced his
supporters he could win and Chávez voters think the president's a shoo-in for
another term, the opposition could have a chance.