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Development: The candidates for the presidential elections in the Dominican Republic (DR) on 16 May closed their electoral campaigns last weekend, with incumbent President Leonel Fernández still by far the favourite to win.
 
Significance: Electoral opinion polls in the DR have consistently given Fernández the lead over his main rival, Miguel Vargas Maldonado of the opposition Partido Revolucionario Dominicano  (PRD). The third candidate, Amable Aristy Castro of the Partido Reformista Social Cristiano (PRSC) comes a distant runner-up but his alliance may yet prove important if the vote should go through to a second round.
 
The numerous opinion polls which have been released between March and April placed President Fernández firmly in first place with 56.0% (Penn and Schoen), 54.0% (Noxa-Clave), and 53.0% (Greenberg). Other pollsters, such as Gallup, put him on 51.7%, Hamilton, on 48% and CID the lowest, on 40.6.

In no independent opinion poll has Vargas Maldonado managed to obtain more than 40% of voter support. Aristy Castro's support has wavered between lows of 5-8% and highs (according to poll published by Hamilton between 27 and 30 March) of 19%.

The three candidates closed their campaigns with large election rallies in a final show of voter support this weekend. On 16 May a total of 5,764,387 Dominicans will be able to go to the urns to choose their favourite candidate; 154,789 of them are registered to vote abroad.

Development: On 16 June Colombia's foreign minister, Fernando Araújo, said that his government will not restore relations with Ecuador during a meeting of foreign ministers from the Andean Community (CAN) which began in Lima the same day.

Significance: Colombia and Ecuador were expected to restore relations, which Ecuador severed in March, this week. The CAN meeting was the obvious opportunity, especially as it coincided with a soccer match between Colombia and Ecuador today (17 June).

Araújo said that there were still some issues to resolve before ties can be restored, though he stressed that Colombia is simply waiting for Ecuador to decide when this is. The Colombian foreign minister, who is expected to hold formal talks with his Ecuadorean counterpart at the end of this month, also said there was no reason to hope for a meeting between the presidents of Colombia and Ecuador.

Colombia's president, Alvaro Uribe, announced on 14 June that he will soon meet his Venezuelan counterpart, Hugo Chávez . Chávez and the Ecuadorean president, Rafael Correa, fell out with Uribe in early March after Colombia attacked a base in Ecuador belonging to the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). This month both Chávez and Correa have called on the Farc to abandon their armed struggle.

Development: On 18 July the economy minister, Carlos Fernández, announced that the government has scrapped the sliding tax-scale for agricultural exports.

Significance: The government had no choice but to scrap the sliding-scale taxes, which it introduced in March. Last week the senate voted against the taxes after President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner agreed to allow congress to decide on their fate in a bid to end the highly disruptive dispute with the countryside, which began in mid March.

President Fernández herself has yet to offer any official response to her crushing defeat in the senate. However, sources suggest that she is about to relaunch her presidency barely seven months after she took office in December. Fernández is expected to announce an increase in the minimum wage and increase benefits for families and retirees, although there are major concerns about how she will afford such largesse now that her government's tax-take from the rural sector has been sharply reduced.

It is also likely that she will change her cabinet. The agriculture secretary, Javier De Urquiza, is expected to step down very shortly, to be replaced by Carlos Cheppi. Cheppi is the president of the National Institute of Agricultural Technology.

Apart from De Urquiza, however, there is no obvious scapegoat for the four-month farming fiasco. The only other people involved in the dispute were the president; her husband and predecessor, Néstor Kirchner; and the cabinet chief, Alberto Fernández. The president sacked Martí­n Lousteau, the economy minister who announced the new tax scheme for rural exports, over an unrelated dispute in late April.

There is also speculation that President Fernández will try to put some distance between herself and her husband, who will concentrate on his job as president of the Partido Justicialista. The longer the dispute with the farmers lasted, the more prominent Kirchner became. By the time the matter reached congress, Fernández had withdrawn from view while Kirchner strived unsuccessfully to secure the support of allied legislators.

It was almost certainly Kirchner who instructed Fernández to take such a hard line with the farmers during the dispute, and indeed on other issues during the first months of her presidency. If Fernández is to restore her credibility and put the rural row behind her, she will have to change the style of her government as much as its content and conduct.

Development: On 20 August Uruguay's Frente Amplio collation government endured its first 24-hour national strike. The strike was called by the country's largest trade union Plenarios Intersindical de Trabajadores (PIT-CNT) in demand of changes to the government's economic policy.

Significance: Union leaders deemed the strike a success as Montevideo, home to half of the country's 3.5 million inhabitants, ground to a halt yesterday. The PIT-CNT had been frustrated by the lack of progress in their negotiations with the government.

The union has demanded an increase in public employee wages to US$8,500/year, an increase in pension payments, additional funding for education and a reduction in the VAT level, which currently stands at 23%. The social security and labour minister, Eduardo Bonomi, talked down the significance of the strike. He reiterated that whilst progress has so far been slow, negotiations remain on track and will not be effected by yesterday's strike action.

The strike has exposed rifts within the union movement.  Moderate fractions have seen their authority eclipsed by the unions' more radical elements, who successfully pushed for a 24-hour stoppage, instead of the 12-hour strike proposed by the moderates. 

The streets of Montevideo were deserted as activity in the financial and banking sector came to a halt, schools and universities closed and public transport was severely limited. The effects of the strike were less apparent in the rest of the country.

Despite this latest strike action, support for President Tabaré Vázquez remains strong, with an unprecedented 57% public approval rating. However, his ruling coalition has seen its support dwindle to 42%, with support for the opposition on the rise.

Development: On 24 September the Instituto Federal Electoral (IFE) concluded its investigation into the protests after the presidential election in 2006.

Significance: The IFE executive wants to fine the leftwing Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) M$57m (US$5.4m) for the post-election protests. Its decision, contained in a 367-page judgement, risks tipping congress back into a party-political standoff. The final decision will be made by the IFE board at its meeting on 29 September.

The 2006 election was the closest in Mexican history and the result, a victory for the rightwing candidate Felipe Calderón Hinojosa, was not accepted by the leftwing candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador. He launched a series of protests to demand a full recount. The electoral authorities allowed only a partial recount and Calderón was confirmed as the victor by a margin of 0.6% of the total vote.

The IFE also wants to fine the PRD another M$16m for seizing the rostrum in congress in an effort to prevent Calderón from being inaugurated. López Obrador has already complained that the fines are unfair and excessive. The IFE executive argues that the protests led by López Obrador exceeded the right to demonstrate because they infringed the rights of other citizens and impeded the working of the government.

Development: On 27 October President Fernando Lugo met United States President George W. Bush in Washington.

Significance: Lugo has made it clear that he will be his own man when it comes to foreign policy. Within a day of coming to power in August, Paraguay's left-leaning president signed a series of bilateral agreements with US nemesis, President Hugo Chávez , proposing a “process of integration and union" between Venezuela and Paraguay. Nevertheless, Lugo has resisted aligning himself with the “Bolivarian" attitude of his Venezuelan counterpart, preferring instead to tread a more moderate path. He has since signed agreements to co-operate with Colombia's rightwing president, Alvaro Uribe, and is now visiting the US.

Bush said after yesterday's meeting in the White House that he had been impressed by the former-bishop's “corazón grande" [big heart] and praised the “strong stand" that Lugo - who ended the 61-year hegemony of Paraguay's Partido Colorado when he came to power in August - is taking against corruption. “There's nothing more discouraging than to have the government of a people steal their money", said Bush, adding, “we [the US] stand with you".

Meanwhile, Lugo remarked that it was “a joy" to be able to reinforce Paraguay's “historic relationship" with the United States.  “We have said since the very beginning that if anything were to distinguish our government, it would be international solidarity", he declared, adding that working together to eradicate poverty is more important than political alignment.

Development: On 30 November Colombia withdrew its consul from the Venezuelan city of Maracaibo, capital of the Western state of Zulia (bordering Colombia), at the request of President Hugo Chávez .

Significance: President Chávez demanded the withdrawal of the consul-general, Carlos Galvis Fajardo, after Venezuelan intelligence sources claimed to have intercepted a “worrying" phone call between Galvis and a Colombian presidential aide, José Obdulio Gaviria. According to Chávez , who said he would expel Galvis if he was not withdrawn, the call suggested that the consul had plans to leverage recent victories by the Venezuelan opposition in regional elections (on 23 November) to destabilize the government.

In the recording, which was aired on 29 November on the state news channel, Venezolana de Televisión, the man identified by the TV station as Galvis said that the result of local and regional elections on 23 November, in which the opposition won five important governorships (of a total of 22), were “strategically favourable to the opposition". He added that two ardent anti-Chávez governors in his area - Pablo Pérez (the new governor of Zulia state) and Manuel Rosales (the former state governor and now the new mayor of Maracaibo) - were “very good friends" and would be “marvellous" for “our work here".

In an interview with the private TV station, Globovisión, Galvis denied that he was involved in a possible plot against the Venezuelan government and said that the conversation represented "a very basic analysis of the election process". He said that the recording of a private conversation was a "violation" of his human rights and of international law.
 
A diplomatic rift emerged between the two neighbour countries, who are also important trade partners, after Colombia bombed a Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia camp on Ecuadorean soil in March, prompting  Chávez to move tanks to the Colombian border.  Relations have since thawed and the speed of the Colombian government's response to Chávez 's request suggests that it is keen to avoid further diplomatic conflict. Yesterday (30 November) Colombian government sources said that its swift response was evidence of “the excellent level of dialogue" between both governments.

Development: On 14 January Jorge Arrate, a longstanding stalwart of the Partido Socialista (PS), one of the four parties comprising the ruling centre-left Concertación coalition, left the party to stand as a presidential candidate for the extra-parliamentary Left.

Significance: Arrate's decision is a blow to the PS and the Concertación and points to rising disillusionment with the ruling coalition as a vehicle for the Left and a corresponding rise in extra-parliamentary left-wing movements ahead of the December 2009 general elections. 

In a letter to the PS president, Camilo Escalona, Arrate explained his decision in terms of the party's failure to reach an agreement with the extra-parliamentary left - namely the Juntos Podemos movement. Arrate had been a member of the PS for 46 years, serving at times as its leader and deputy leader. He is due to be named presidential candidate by the “socialistas allendistas" on 18 January.

His departure from the party also follows that of Alejandro Navarro who left the PS last November to join the Movimiento Amplio Social (MAS), a leftwing party founded in March 2008 as a “return to the grassroots".  Navarro has since been declared MAS presidential candidate. At the time Navarro had said his “regretful" decision to leave the party owed to Escalona's abandonment of longstanding principles and disregard for the opinions of the party's grassroots. He also claimed to have taken with him 135 members of the party, including seven members of the central committee.

Arrate's decision to leave the PS is the second setback in recent weeks for the party, after the secretary general of the Organization of American States (OAS), José Miguel Insulza, announced he would not be standing as a pre-presidential candidate in the Concertación primaries, due to take place in April.

While Socialist deputy Marco Enrí­quez-Ominami has since said that he would run for the Concertación nomination, the party is unlikely to back him, inclining instead towards the pre-presidential candidate for the Partido Democracia Cristiana (PDC), Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle. Frei, a former president (1994-2000), is currently front-runner for the Concertación nomination. He faces José Antonio Gómez, a senator from a smaller Concertación party, the Partido Radical Socialdemócrata, who is also running a low key campaign for the ruling coalition nomination.

Development:  On 21 February a new report by the UN Development Program and the National Autonomous University of Honduras highlighted the continuing problem of violence in Honduras.

Significance:  According to the report, there is a homicide every two hours in Honduras (12 a day). There is a growing fear that the failure of official efforts to combat gang violence may lead Honduras in the direction of Mexico, where the government has called upon the army to combat both corrupt local police forces as well as criminal gangs running drug-funded organised crime rings.

The official murder toll was 4,473 in 2008 (up 25.2% on 2007), according to the report, giving a homicide rate of 57.9 per 100,000, in a population of only 7.0m.

The overall death toll for last year, which includes deaths relating to traffic accidents and suicides (both of which rose in high double digits in 2008 [24% and 25%]), came to 7,235, up 25% (or by 1,448 cases) on the previous year.

The 15-44 age group is in the frontline of the country's violence: 80.4% of all homicides occurred in this bracket.

Men (particularly young men) remain the most vulnerable group: they accounted for 93% of all homicides, although 506 children and teenagers were also killed in 2008. 

Similarly to previous years, 78% of homicides were the result of fire arms, with 16% caused by knives and other weapons. The number of kidnappings has also risen: the authorities report 16 to date in 2009.

The fear locally is that the longstanding gang problem in Honduras, is growing again despite recent renewed efforts by the government to crack down on both gangs and police corruption.

US moves to repatriate Central American gang members arrested there has also exacerbated the problem in recent years.

Development: On 1 April the local press in Chile published a poll which showed the presumptive presidential candidate for the righting opposition Alianza pro Chile, Sebastián Piñera, tying with the former president Eduardo Frei (1994-2000)of the ruling Concertación, ahead of the December elections.

Significance: This is the first time that polls have put Piñera and Frei neck and neck, with Piñera having had a comfortable lead for several months. The latest poll movement reflects the growing momentum behind Frei's candidacy, and suggests that the December vote will be close. In this context, whoever wins may have a fairly weak mandate.

The poll by TNS-Time, published by the national daily, El Mercurio, showed the opposition candidate ahead of Frei by 41%-39%. However this is within the 2.6% margin of error. At the end of February, polls had put Piñera ahead by at least ten percentage points. Notably, the percentage of undecided voters has risen, indicating that there is still a lot of play for, and independents may yet prove decisive.

Piñera has taken a hit from a scandal that broke on 24 March when Farmacias Ahumada (Fasa), one of Chile's leading pharmacy chains, admitted to colluding with rivals to push up prices between November 2007 and March 2008 and agreed to pay a US$1m fine, triggering angry denials from the competitors and government indignation.  

Piñera acknowledged that through his Santa Cecilia investment fund he controls a small stake in Fasa “just like millions of Chilean [investors] and individuals whose pension funds hold stakes in the company." Unsurprisingly the case was seized upon by Frei, leading Piñera to decry suggestions that he held some responsibility for the affair as an unfortunate “abuse of power".

Meanwhile, Frei has more immediate battles at hand - he will face José Antonio Gómez in the Concertación primaries on 5 April. A separate 1 April poll by El Mercurio-Opina also suggested a positive outcome for the former president.

According to the survey, Frei - who has the backing of three of the four Concertación parties (the Democracia Cristiana [DC], of which he is a member, the Partido Socialista and the Partido por la Democracia) - is on 49%, compared to 23.9% for Gómez, of the Partido Radical Socialdemócrata, well above the 20 percentage point lead required for the winner to be automatically declared official candidate. The poll was taken after the first televised debate between the two nominees.

Pointer: The question of politicians' business interests has never been far from the media limelight, with a bill currently in congress requiring those seeking public office to place their business interests in a so-called "blind trust", whereby a third party administers assets while the owner holds public office.   Piñera, a billionaire businessman with a 27% stake in the flagship Chilean airline LAN and control of the television channel Chilevisión among other interests, complained that the push to approve the bill was a personal attack.

Brazil: Taking advantage of a recent rally in emerging-market debt, Brazil sold US$750m of 10-year bonds on US and EU markets, at a yield of 2.52 percentage points over US treasuries.  It's the second sale this year: in early January the treasury sold US$1.03bn in 2019 bonds.

Brazil: The National Industry Confederation (CNI) reported that installed capacity use rose in March, after five months of decline. It stood at 78.7%, compared to 83% a year ago. Industrial sales and employment fell 7.6% and 1.4% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter, the worst results in the current series (2003). The CNI said the economy had stabilised, but was not yet in recovery mode.

Chile: The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low of 1.25%, citing growth concerns.

Peru: The central bank cut the benchmark interest rate for a fourth consecutive month to 4.0%, from 5% previously, in bid to boost flagging domestic demand.

Venezuela: New car sales fell 44.5% year-on-year to 60,486 units in the first four months of the year.

Development: On 15 June the government said that it now wanted to rescind, rather than suspend, the controversial decrees which ended indigenous peoples' rights over their areas in Amazonia.

Significance: President Alan Garcí­a and his government appear to be focused entirely on gaining short-term political advantage rather than producing a coherent strategy to end the unrest in Amazonia. This unrest resulted in the confrontation in Bagua on 5 June which left 24 policemen and at least nine indigenous protesters dead.

On 10 June the government used its majority in congress to suspend, rather than rescind, the two decrees against which the indigenous groups were protesting on 5 June. The radical opposition Partido Nacionalista Peruana argued that the decrees should be rescinded, and at least seven of its deputies broke congressional rules by demonstrating against the government's suspension policy. These deputies were then suspended and excluded from congress.

Yet on 15 June the prime minister, Yehude Simon, who is not a member of President Garcí­a's Apra, promised indigenous leaders that the decrees, 1090 and 1064, would be rescinded and signed an agreement with the leaders of 390 indigenous communities to that effect, adding that he would propose this to congress today (16 June). The decrees ended indigenous groups' rights to be consulted on mining, oil and lumber projects on their lands.

Separately the foreign minister, José Antonio Garcí­a Belaunde, accused President Evo Morales of trying to become the leader of Peru's indigenous groups. Peru has again recalled its ambassador from Bolivia to underline its displeasure with Morales.

Development: On 22 July the delegations representing the deposed president, Manuel Zelaya, and the de facto administration that replaced him, led by Roberto Micheletti, rejected a fresh proposal put forward by the mediator, Costa Rica's President Oscar Arias.

Significance: The talks have hit a brick wall over the issue of Zelaya's reinstatement as president, which the de facto government and, more pertinently, the Supreme Court, still refuses to accept under any circumstances. Diplomacy is not dead yet (Mexico and Brazil's foreign ministers will discuss the crisis today), but it needs to be backed up with some serious strong-arming and economic muscle (in the form of trade isolation), principally on the part of the US government. The prospect now, which Arias had been trying to avoid, is of further radicalisation on both sides.

The head of the Micheletti delegation and interim foreign minister, Carlos López Contreras, remained adamant last night that he could not accept any solution that involved the imposition of Zelaya, “much as one imposes a governor on a colony".

Arias presented an amended 12-point proposal yesterday, which added to and refined his original seven-point plan. That plan was accepted by Zelaya but rejected by the Micheletti administration on 19 July.

The revised 'San Jose Accord' included some additional concessions to the de facto administration, such as the immediate removal of all international sanctions. Arias said it was more “reasonable, equitable and balanced", with “more bridges".

Under the plan:

• On 24 July (Friday) Zelaya would return to preside over a national unity government of reconciliation until 27 January 2010 (and the government would work with the 2009 budget passed by the de facto administration);  
• Both sides would receive an amnesty for political crimes, with a guarantee that no other pending judicial processes be opened for a period of six months;
• All mention of a constituent assembly or constitutional reform would be dropped;
• The elections would be brought forward a month to 28 October (with the campaign beginning on 1 August);
• The armed forces/police would support the elections;
• Congress would agree to retroactively restore the legal situation as it was on 28 June before the coup - effectively allowing for Zelaya's return to complete his term, and presumably, for Micheletti to return to his earlier post as head of congress;
• A verification commission, led by the Organization of American States (OAS) would oversee the agreement, while a truth commission, led by the Inter American Institute of Human Rights, would investigate the events leading up to the coup;
• The international community would restore relations with Honduras and lift the suspension of financial aid.

It is questionable whether the Micheletti side ever intended to do a deal. Arias signalled yesterday that he was close to washing his hands of the entire process, warning the Tegucigalpa administration that it was doing a lot of harm to the Honduran people, and that the country had become the “North Korea or the Albania of Central America".

He urged both sides to go away and think carefully about the agreement on the table, and said that otherwise they could return to the OAS.

It all ended on a very sour note, with both sides trading recriminations and mutually accusing the other of hobbling the talks.

“The San Jose process has failed because of the intransigence of the coup government," Zelaya declared, reiterating that he had already accepted the first proposal.  

He said he intended to stick to his plan to cross the Nicaragua/Honduras border tomorrow (24 July), unarmed.

Pointer: The heavily politicised Supreme Court has re-emerged as an important actor in this crisis and any further negotiations may have to deal with the court, headed by Jorge Rivera Avilés, directly. The secretary general of the OAS, Jose Miguel Insulza, had little success when he paid it a visit on 3 July. Last night, López Contreras repeated that any decision taken had to be based on the Constitutional separation of powers in Honduras, “which cannot be ignored or reversed", and said he would submit the latest proposal to the court and the attorney general's office for consideration. However on Monday night, (20 July) the Supreme Court reiterated that there are charges pending against Zelaya (18 in all, political and criminal), and noted that he had been formally deposed by congress on 28 June and, therefore, could not return to his post. López Contreras subsequently admitted to the daily La Prensa that this was “a barrier".

Development: On 1 September a former prefect of Cochabamba, Manfred Reyes Villa, officially launched his presidential campaign and announced that a jailed former Pando prefect, Leopoldo Fernández, would be his running mate.

Significance: Reyes Villa's campaign launch highlights the failure of the rightwing opposition to unite around a single presidential ticket.

Reyes Villa's surprise announcement that Fernández would stand as his running mate (reportedly after efforts to strike an alliance with a former vice president, Ví­ctor Hugo Cárdenas, failed), is controversial, because  Fernández is currently incarcerated in a La Paz prison, awaiting trial for his alleged role in the September 2008 Pando massacre, in which at least 16 people were killed.

Fernández is the first Bolivian politician to run for office from prison, although the electoral authority (OEP) has said that there is no constitutional impediment to his bid.

The Reyes Villa-Fernández ticket represents little threat to Morales. The most recent survey by pollster Gallup International, at the end of August, showed Morales with 57.7% backing, pretty identical to the 57.3% support he won in the 2005 election.

His closest competitor is president of the centre-right Unidad Nacional (UN), the cement mogul Samuel Doria Medina, with 9.7% support, while Reyes Villa received 8.6% backing.

Under the new constitution, over 50% of the vote or a minimum of 40% with a ten percentage point margin is required to win the presidency in the first round on 6 December.

Aside from the Reyes Villa-Fernández ticket and Morales (running with current vice president Alvaro Garcí­a Linera), a Quechua mayor of Potosí­, René Joaquino, from the leftist group Alianza Social, together with Pastor Charles Suárez, have formally registered ahead of the 7 September deadline.

Friday 9 October

Colombia-Ecuador: The foreign ministers of Colombia, Jaime Bermúdez, and Ecuador, Fander Falconí­, will meet in Ipiales, on the Colombian side of the shared border, as part of a recently-agreed dialogue process to re-establish diplomatic ties, severed since Colombia's March 2008 bombing of a Colombian guerrilla camp on Ecuadorian soil. The Organization of American States secretary general, Jose Miguel Insulza, will attend.

Brazil-South Africa: The president of South Africa, Jacob Zuma, will conclude an official visit to Brazil (from 8 October).

Chile: The five presidential candidates for the forthcoming elections on 13 December will take part in a debate organised by the Asociación de Radiodifusores de Chile (ARCHI).

Saturday 10 October

Ecuador: March for peace, to be held in Quito.

El Salvador: Opening of the Central American tourism fair in San Salvador.

Panama: A free wireless internet service will be launched in 10 cities across the country.

Monday 12 October

Panama: Indigenous groups will march to the presidential palace to protest energy and infrastructure projects carried out on their territory.

Tuesday 13 October

Argentina-India: Argentina's President Cristina Fernández will lead a trade delegation to India, where she will meet India's Prime Minister Manmohan Singh.

Bolivia: Representatives from peasant, indigenous and ecological organisations will attend meetings as part of the international climate justice tribunal, a platform of social, indigenous and popular organisations that is independent from the formal justice system.

Thursday 15 October

Nicaragua: Legislators in the national assembly will begin discussing the bill for the 2010 state budget.