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Development: On 23 June, Dora Irrazábal the state prosecutor of Horqueta (Concepción), announced that ballistics and gunpowder tests confirmed that three of the eight people detained after a confrontation between members of the special forces (Fope) and suspected members of the Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP) on 17 June, in which two officers died, had fired weapons before their detention.

Significance: The dual use of so-called 'urban militias', large support networks of sympathisers that generally do not take part in direct confrontations with the authorities, and of 'troops' that do engage in combat, echoes the structure of the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc), which is presumed to have trained the EPP.

Although all eight denied being members of the criminal group, Irrazábal insisted yesterday that “[three] are members of the EPP, it is confirmed [by the tests]". The arrests are the first to result directly from a shootout and the fact that all three men are local inhabitants from Kurusu de Hierro, where the confrontation took place, would suggest some of them may be members of the EPP's support network if not EPP 'troops'.

The presumed EPP members are Gabriel Bernal and Mariano Martí­nez, while the identity of the third person could not be disclosed because he is a minor. Of the eight detained, two are under house arrest because they are underage.

According to Irrazábal, the ballistics tests also confirmed that the two shots that killed officer Lilio Giménez were fired by the suspects; she did not confirm if the shots came from the same weapon or if the men could be linked to the killing of the other officer, Carlos Cardozo.

Development: On 3 August the violent mobilisation in Cusco against the exporting gas from Camisea's, Peru's largest natural gas deposit, entered its eighth day.
 
Significance: The leaders of the protest will decide (today, 4 August) whether to call the mobilisation off. The leaders are hoping for a concession from congress, but congress set the ending of the demonstrations as a precondition for dialogue.

The prime minister, Javier Velásquez Quesquén, is warning of the politicisation of the social conflict. Quesquén pointed the finger at 'leftist' congress members who seek re-election in the regional and municipal election on 3 October. He said that those seeking to exacerbate the protests for electoral gain would only damage the region.

Transportadora de Gas del Perú (TGP), the company that runs the gas monitoring, processing and transportation stations, (including the PCP 2, which was attacked on 30 July), have removed all but security staff from the installation. 

More federal police and military personnel have been drafted into the region. This is response to the continued attacks on sections of the pipeline that carry the gas to the control and monitoring centres.

Simultaneously in Quillabamba, the second biggest city in the department of Cusco, hundreds of agricultural workers, small scale traders and retailers, and teachers added weight to the roadblocks. Since 29 July communications to  Quillabamba have been cut. Markets and schools in the city have closed.

Development: On 9 September, the police arrested three people presumed to be Ejército del Pueblo Paraguayo (EPP) collaborators, in relation to the murder of Hugo Julián Ortiz on 1 September.

Significance: Cristóbal Espí­nola Benitez, Sonia Espí­nola Benitez, and Daniel Gauto were arrested in the Sidepar Settlement, department of Canindeyú, after police found that they had purchased the weapon used by EPP member 'Simón' or 'Junior' (Gabriel Zárate) to kill Ortiz, a police informant. According to prosecutor Francisco Ayala, the three presumed collaborators have been charged with manslaughter (homicidio culposo) and criminal association. The latest in a long series of EPP-related arrests shows that the Paraguayan authorities have increased their efforts to tackle the group, but also exposes the ineffectiveness of the security forces in capturing the leaders of the organization.

Cristóbal and Sonia are the cousins of 'Ramón' (Oscar Benitez) presumed to be a member of the EPP. It is believed that 'Ramón' was the mastermind behind the murder, as Ortiz was the father of his former girlfriend.

The police searched two properties linked to the suspects and believe to have found further proof of their connection to the EPP. In Cristóbal's house the police found letters and pictures which appear to suggest his romantic involvement with Vidalina Cardozo, presumed to be an EPP member and sister of Nimio Cardozo, a known member of the group. Nimio is also wanted in connection with Ortiz's murder and is presumed to be hiding in the area.

In a search of the Cardozo family home, according to prosecutor Sandra Quiñonez, the police found letters, pictures and uniforms believed to belong to Nimio Cardazo and EPP leader, Magna Meza.

The director of intelligence at the ministry of interior, Carlos Altenburger, stated that the capture of the three suspects was the result of intelligence work that began after the kidnap of rancher Fidel Zavala last October. However, he also declared that intelligence gathering is tough because the criminal organization works undercover. “Guerrilla groups are like that, you don't know who is who. It might be the person beside you" he added.

Development: On 21 October the opposition candidate José Serra was hospitalized after he was allegedly hit on the head with a heavy object during a campaign rally in Campo Grande, in eastern Rio de Janeiro.

Significance:   Serra, 68, accused “fascist PT shock troops" of the attack. His rival Dilma Rousseff repudiated the attack. The second round run-off is getting tenser by the day. Latest polls have added to the confusion - Ibope yesterday put Rousseff on 56% of the valid vote, compared to 44% for Serra, while CNT/Sensus put the contest at 52.8%-47.2%.   Nearly all the pollsters miscalled the first round, completely underestimating the support for the third placed candidate Marina Silva, so nerves are fraying heading into the final week of the campaign. The 31 October run-off is decided by a simple majority.

Things got out of hand as Serra was on a walkabout in Rio as militants from the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) clashed with members of Serra's Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB). Rousseff was also taken by surprise yesterday when Greenpeace activists interrupted her as she was accepting the adhesion of six deputies and 20 regional leaders from Silva's Partido Verde (PV) at a ceremony in Brasí­lia.

President Lula da Silva has celebrated the fact that the second round is so closely fought. Yesterday in Brasí­lia, however, he accused Serra of making “irresponsible promises" and called on him “to explain to the Brazilian people" his call the previous day for “a major shift in economic policy. "And at a time when Brazil serves as an example to the world", Lula fumed. Lula dismissed Serra's promises to lift the minimum wage to R$600 in 2011 (from R$510), give pensioners a 10% rise and award an extra cash bonus to beneficiaries of the Bolsa Famí­lia as “irresponsible, because he is not going to comply with them".

Rousseff picked on this, telling the Greenpeace activists demanding zero deforestation that she was not going to make promises she couldn't keep and pointing out that Brazil's proposal at the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen in December 2009 (to reduce deforestation in the Amazon by 80% by 2020), a proposal she oversaw as minister of the presidency, was ambitious, but one she intended to meet. She also claimed that her project, in contrast to Serra's, privileges sustainable social and economic development and not just faster GDP growth.

Rousseff is slowly picking up the Greens. Yesterday Ângela Mendes, the daughter of Chico Mendes, declared her support for Rousseff, as did Marina Silva's campaign coordinator, Pedro Ivo, who like Silva is an evangelical.   Echoing Lula's anger over a recent vicious telemarketing and leaflet campaign against Rousseff, Ivo slammed the Serra campaign team for promoting “the worst web of rumours, slander and insults I have ever seen". Curiously yesterday, it emerged that the 'dodgy dossiers' campaign by the PT against Serra earlier this year, which involved the breach of banking secrecy and tax laws, may have originated in the PSDB itself, during its internal process to decide on a presidential candidate for 2010.

Who is he? Madero was chosen as the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN)'s new party president on 4 December.

Why watch him?   Madero, currently a PAN senator for Chihuahua, will steer the party through the July 2012 presidential and congressional elections. The party has no obvious presidential candidate. In a recent opinion poll, voters said that they intended to vote PAN in the presidential election but, most unusually, when given the option of various PAN candidates they changed their minds.

Born: 16 December 1955.

Place of birth: Chihuahua. He is the grandson of Evaristo Madero González, the younger brother of the ill-fated Francisco I Madero, whose challenge to President Porfirio Dí­az set off the Mexican Revolution in 1910.

Education:   Madero has a degree in communications from Instituto Tecnológico y de Estudios Superiores de Occidente in Jalisco.

Public life:   Madero has only been in politics for the past 11 years, having spent most of his career in business. He previously served on the board of Vitro, the country's main glassmaker, and was a senior figure in the employers' organization, Coparmex, in Chihuahua.

Madero first became involved politics in 1992 in Chihuahua, during Francisco Barrio Terrazas's victorious campaign to become the state's first PAN governor. Barrio had made his name in 1986, in a campaign in which he denounced the widespread fraud of the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), which had ruled the country from the end of the Mexican Revolution. Barrio was probably cheated of victory in 1986. Barrio's 1992 to 1998 administration was disastrous and focused on score settling. Since then, the state has reverted to the PRI's control. Madero was head of planning during the whole of the Barrio administration.
 
In 2001, Madero was defeated for the mayoralty of Chihuahua City;
In 2003, Madero narrowly won a federal congressional seat, for Chihuahua's Sixth District. While in congress he pushed (unsuccessfully) for Value Added Tax to be levied on food and medicine, currently zero-rated.

Timeline:

1999: Joins PAN.

2001: Loses election for mayor of Chihuahua City.

2003: Elected to the lower house of congress.

2006: Elected to the senate.

2007: Considers running for the governorship of Chihuahua in 2010, but (wisely) drops the idea, as the PAN is again roundly defeated in the state.

2008: Becomes leader of the PAN in the senate, as part of President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa's campaign to marginalize Santiago Creel, President Vicente Fox's preferred candidate for the PAN nomination for the 2006 presidential elections, eventually won (very narrowly), by Calderón.

2008: Becomes president of the senate for the legislative year (September 2008 to August 2009).

26 August 2010: Decides to run for the PAN presidency.

4 December 2010: Elected party president of the PAN. He says that he will now resign as a senator.

Strengths:   Madero's rise up through the PAN has been impressive. He is right-wing, but independent of President Calderón. He did not play any significant part in Calderón's 2005 (primary) or 2006 (presidential) election campaigns. He is a supporter of the 'Stop the PRI' cross party political alliances, which performed well in the gubernatorial elections in 2010 and may yet embarrass the PRI's presidential front-runner, Enrique Peña Nieto, in the Estado de México in 2011.

Weaknesses: His enemies in the PAN dismiss him as a 'Johnny-come-lately', who was not involved the PAN's long years of political struggle against the PRI. The fact that Calderón ended up endorsing him as his candidate for the party presidency, despite Madero's apparent distance from the inner circles of Calderonismo, shows how weak Calderón now is in the party. Previously, Calderón was able to impose (and remove) party presidents.

Prospects:   Not good. The PAN has lost virtually every significant election it has fought since Calderón won the presidency. The party was humiliated in the mid-term elections in 2009 and Calderón is now pretty much a lame-duck. The PAN has no obvious candidate to succeed Calderón, but then Calderón himself was barely rated by commentators as a potential president 18 months from the 2006 elections.

Development: On 25 January a new and unexpected electoral issue made its way to the top of the Peruvian campaign agenda - same sex marriage.

Significance: Same sex marriage and same sex civil union are heavily politicised and incredibly divisive issues in Peru - not least because of the conservative, right-wing stance of the Peruvian Catholic Church which holds both political sway and pulpit power. The left-wing nationalist Ollanta Humala, of Alianza Gana Perú, and the incumbent Mayor of Lima, Susana Villarán, of the Alianza Fuerza Social, are likely to gain electorally from this issue, as it begins to divide the right and centre-right alliances.

Key points:

Like the issues of abortion and the morning after pill, publically supporting same sex marriage is a risky tactic, especially in the midst of a presidential campaign, since much of the electorate remains heavily influenced by the position of the Church. 'La República',   the centre-left national daily, raised the issue on 24 January and since then, civil union and same sex marriage has snowballed into a key campaign issue.

The archbishop of Chimbote, Luis Bambarén, triggered a backlash from gay rights groups when he said “The word [for homosexuality] isn't gay, it's faggot", having just encouraged the presidential candidates to run decent campaigns and lead by example. Cardinal Cipriani, leader of the Catholic Church and head of Opus Dei (the highly secretive, often controversial international network that promotes traditional Catholic values in day-to-day professional life for both clergy and laity) said “[they] have a hidden agenda that goes against natural rights...some candidates want to change the very fabric of [Peruvian] society".

The debate now centres on the details. Many candidates, including former Lima mayor Luis Castañeda Lossio, presidential candidate for Alianza Solidaridad Nacional, has said he is in favour of civil union but not same sex marriage. Article 5 of the constitution would have to be amended for same sex marriage to be implemented. Carlos Bruce, the vice-presidential candidate for Alejandro Toledo's Alianza Perú Posible, which currently tops the polls, took a less nuanced, more pragmatic position saying he felt same sex marriage was an issue that was important to significant sectors of the population, but trying to implement the reform would be a “pointless battle".

Development: On 15 March a car bomb went off in Ciudad Victoria, Tamaulipas.

Significance: The car exploded in a parking lot used by a nursery, opposite the state public security office in Ciudad Victoria and slightly wounded two people. There was a spate of car bombs in January this year and December 2010 in at least two other states, Hidalgo and Nuevo León.

Key points:

Tamaulipas has become one of the most violent states in Mexico. According to the Federación de Cámaras Nacionales de Comercio (Fecanaco) in Tampico, one of Tamaulipas's biggest cities, 40% of 3,000 shops have closed in the past two years.  Fenaco said that the deteriorating security situation was the usual reason. Fenaco said that employers were being driven away from the state and this was depressing domestic demand.

Fenaco said that 4,000 people joined the ranks of the unemployed in Tampico in 2010, in a year when the national economy grew by 6.5%.

The big worry for business in the state is what will happen during Holy Week (17 to 22 April) a key public holiday. In 2010 Holy Week was disastrous for business because of a series of attacks by narco gangsters. This led to the cancelled of the traditional “Fiestas de Abril Tampico 2010" for the first time in 50 years.

Development: On 5 May, Paraguay's supreme electoral tribunal (TSJE) set 9 October 2011 as the date for a referendum on a constitutional amendment to allow Paraguayan nationals living abroad to vote in national elections.

Significance: This will be the first referendum vote in Paraguay for over 70 years. Moreover, should the result be positive, the amendment would be the first to the 1992 constitution. The initiative reflects a regional trend; with similar moves in Chile and El Salvador. The staging of the referendum could be a positive for President Fernando Lugo and his political organisation, Frente Guasú, as they recently launched a campaign for another constitutional amendment to allow presidential re-election.

Key points:

Plans to amend constitutional article 120, which declares the country's electorate as composed of “Paraguayan citizens living within the national territory", were first introduced in congress in October 2010 and received final approval by the senate on 15 April. Under the constitution this particular amendment must be upheld by national referendum.

The initiative has been hailed by millions of Paraguayans living abroad and local political leaders, who describe it as “historical reparation". During the country's military dictatorship (1954-1989), many Paraguayan nationals were either exiled or forced to flee the country. The Paraguayan population in neighbouring Argentina alone is estimated at close to 1m.

Although the wording of the amended text has been carefully discussed in congress, the actual mechanisms by which “foreign" votes would be processed remain largely undefined. Authorities contemplate changes to the electoral code in order to draw up a register of Paraguayans living abroad, or alternatively, allowing them to register by post.

Paraguay could look to Peru. In the first round of this year's presidential elections, there was high turnout by the 754,154 registered voters living abroad. Peru's electoral body, ONPE, praised for its handling of expat votes, recently presented a project in congress to allow Peruvian nationals living abroad to submit electronic votes.  

Paraguay's last referendum was held in 1940, after President José Félix Estigarribia dissolved congress and introduced a new constitution. Although the 1992 constitution also provides for referendums on civilian initiatives, this avenue has never been used, after various proposals failed to prosper.

Colombia's President Alvaro Uribe went in search of investment from China and Japan at the start of April. The importance the president afforded to the visit, which also took in the 46th annual governors meeting of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), was indicated by his delegation: accompanying Uribe were his foreign minister, Carolina Barco, the communications minister, Marta Helena Pinto, the education minister, Marí­a Cecilia White, the trade minister, Jorge Humberto Botero, and the minister for mines and energy, Luis Ernesto Mejí­a.

China

Uribe's first port of call was Beijing on 6 April, where he became the first Colombian president to visit China. His intentions were clear: to make sure Colombia did not miss out on the billions of dollars China is currently investing in Latin America, chiefly in Argentina, Brazil and Venezuela. However while those three countries have left-wing governments (albeit of differing natures), Colombia's is arguably the most right-wing in Latin America.

With this in mind, Uribe's trip to Beijing can be considered a success. Following a meeting with his Chinese counterpart Hu Jintao on 11 April, the two countries established the so-called "Association in Progress", a bilateral commission which will seek to enhance business ties between the two countries. Colombia is most keen to attract Chinese investment in two sectors: oil and telecommunications.

The oil sector in Colombia is suffering from chronic underinvestment, and Colombia is set to become a net importer of oil within the next two years. Given that securing energy supplies to fuel its economic growth is one of China's main foreign-policy priorities, the mutual advantages seem obvious. "There must be oil in Colombia since next door to us Venezuela produces 3m barrels a day and Ecuador 600,000," Uribe told Chinese businessmen. "But 87% of Colombian territory has yet to be explored." The Colombian president invited Chinese firms to invest not only in exploration, but also in a pipeline project taking Venezuelan oil across Colombia to its Pacific coast.

In other agreements, President Hu said that he would consider whether to make Colombia an authorised travel destination for Chinese tourists. Uribe said that were China to do so his government would make it far easier for Chinese companies to get visas to come to Colombia.

Japan

President Uribe meanwhile took the message to Japan that Colombia is now a safe place to invest funds. "Restore your confidence in my country," Uribe told Japanese businessmen in Okinawa on 10 April. "Please go to Colombia and see with your own eyes the progress we have made in security."

Uribe's focus was not just on convincing Japan that he is winning the war against left-wing insurgent groups, but also on stressing that Colombia's financial situation is also clear of its former uncertainty. The president said that he would push forward with financial and judicial reforms until the last day of his presidency, and that he respected the Colombian central bank's independence to shape the country's exchange-rate policy.

At a meeting with Japan's Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi, Uribe proposed a free-trade agreement (FTA) with Japan. The president said the deal could follow a similar framework to FTAs Japan has completed with Mexico and is discussing with Chile.

The centrepiece of Japan's investment plans in Colombia is the Túnel de La Lí­nea, a government project to dig a tunnel through the Andes in order to link the west of Colombia to the centre. Uribe said that his government is close to having an official estimate on how much the project will cost and that he is confident Japan will finance the tunnel.

On the political front, Uribe said he would consider backing Japan's bid to gain a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Given this very issue partly lies behind a recent deterioration in relations between China and Japan, the lack of commitment seemed diplomatic in the circumstances.

• Malaysian embassy sought
  Colombia wants Malaysia to open an embassy in Bogotá. The Colombian ambassador in Kuala Lumpur met the Malaysian foreign minister, Hamid Albar, on 20 April to discuss the issue. The Colombians say that there is plenty of scope for increasing trade in petrochemicals and plastic; palm oil; textiles and information and communication technology. The Colombians and also interested in going into joint ventures in the energy industry with the Malaysian state oil company, Petronas.

IMMIGRATION: Mexican consulate ID cards approved

VENEZUELA: Government irked by US people-trafficking criticism

PANAMA: Agriculture minister stresses importance of sector ahead of FTA

PINOCHET: Ex-executive of Riggs Bank key to 'pinocuentas'

CENTRAL AMERICA-TRADE: Rightwing think-tank supports CAFTA

ANDEAN TRADE: USAID help to improve public sector competitiveness

HURRICANE: Gulf states brace themselves for Ivan

IMMIGRATION
On 14 September the House of Representatives voted to allow ID cards issued by Mexican consulates to be accepted in the US as proof of identity for financial transactions. The vote was 222 to 117. The move was strongly backed by Hispanic members of congress and local police forces who said that it would be helpful in the struggle against terrorism. The vote is a setback for Tom Tancredo, the Californian Republican congressman, who is vehemently opposed to improving the rights and status of migrants from Latin America. He wanted to neuter the proposal by refusing to allow federal money to be spent on making it work. Other opponents argued that there were not enough checks by consular officials on those people to whom they were issuing cards. The backers of the proposal argued that it would be much better for US security if people sending money back to Latin America could use the financial system. Latin Americans are reckoned to earn and spend US$400bn in the US. The idea of the proposal is to prevent this money being handled by criminal money-launderers.

VENEZUELA
The US antagonised the Venezuelan government by ruling that it was not cooperating sufficiently with a US measure to reduce trafficking in people. The Venezuelan foreign ministry said that the US claim was malicious. It pointed out that the US criticised Venezuela yet it did not criticise other countries that had not signed international conventions to combat people trafficking and especially the trafficking of minors. The Venezuelan deputy foreign minister, Arévalo Méndez, pointed out that the US had more than 10,000 internet sites devoted to child pornography and that Florida and California have some of the highest incidences of child prostitution in the world. Méndez said that the Venezuelan government recognised that people trafficking was a problem, but that he claimed that the scale of the problem in Venezuela was nothing compared with what went on in the US.

PANAMA
Speaking to US officials in Washington ahead of the fifth round of free-trade talks scheduled for 18-22 October, Panama's agriculture minister, Laurentino Cortizo, stated that the country's agricultural sector was a matter of 'national security'. Panama wishes to exclude 16 different products from the talks, including milk, beef, sugar, rice, corn, onions, potatoes and tomatoes, for fear of the impact subsidized US imports will have on the local market. According to reports in La Prensa on 14 September, Panamanian officials hope to complete the talks at the meeting in October.

PINOCHET
According to an article published on 14 September by The New York Times, the investigations into Pinochet's secret multimillion dollar bank accounts (the so-called 'pinocuentas'), centre around the role of Maria Carol Thomson, a former executive of Riggs Bank who had direct contact with the Chilean dictator. The paper claims that Thomson helped Pinochet set up bank accounts and transfer money from a company he controlled called Althorp Investment in a way that avoided disclosing his identity. The type of accounts Thomson set up, known as 'concentrated accounts', are often used to launder money because they can easily disguise unusual transactions. A US senate committee discovered in mid August that from 1994-1998 Pinochet had hidden between US$4m and US$8m in the Washington-based bank.

CENTRAL AMERICA-TRADE
The conservative think-tank, The Heritage Foundation, has thrown its weight behind the US-Dominican Republic-Central American Free Trade Agreement (DR-Cafta). The agreement's passage through congress is problematic and has been delayed until at least after the presidential elections in November. In a report published on 14 September, The Heritage Foundation said that DR-Cafta, which was signed on 5 August, was significant for both trade and security purposes. 'Approval of DR-Cafta is essential for both the long-term interests of the U.S. and maintaining America's commitment to free trade throughout the world,' the report claims. 'It would also promote America's long-term national interests by bolstering political stability_ and encouraging economic liberalization in countries in which growth could supply jobs to workers who would otherwise migrate illegally to the United States.'

ANDEAN TRADE
USAID signed an agreement with the Andean Community providing US$6.2m to improve the competitiveness of public sector enterprises looking for a global outlet. The US ambassador to Peru, James Curtis Struble, said that the aid would help prepare small and medium sized businesses to prepare for the free-trade agreement currently being negotiated between the US and the Andean Community. The fourth round of negotiations between Ecuador, Colombia and Peru with the US began on 13 September in Fajardo in Puerto Rico.

HURRICANE IVAN
The Gulf states of Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana are bracing themselves tonight for the impact of Hurricane Ivan which has wreaked havoc on a number of Caribbean islands, including Grenada, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over the last week, claiming at least 68 lives and inflicting millions of dollars of damage. USAID has sent several hundred thousand dollars worth of assistance to support local purchase and distribution of emergency relief supplies, in-country air transport and aerial assessments of affected areas.

Guatemala: On 6 February, the central bank (Banguat) reported that remittance inflows from the US were worth US$246.1m in January 2010, a 15% decline on the same month of the previous year. The fall is attributed to the global economic crisis. Guatemalan migrants sent a total of US$3.9bn overall in 2009, 9.3% less than in 2008. According to figures from the foreign ministry, there are some 1.2m Guatemalans living in the US, 60% of which are illegal.

Region: A report published by the US National Office for Statistics on 9 February revealed that the number of illegal immigrants in the US has dropped by 7% to 10.8m in 2009, down from 11.6m in 2008. Of these 62%, or around 6.7m, are thought to originate from Mexico. It is estimated that El Salvador has the second highest number of illegal immigrants, at around 530,000, followed by Guatemala with 480,000 and Honduras with 320,000.

El Salvador/Panama: The US assistant secretary of state for economic, energy and business affairs, José Fernández, visited El Salvador on 4 February and met President Mauricio Funes. The two discussed ways of strengthening trade relations between the two countries. Fernández was visiting the country following a trip to Panama. He warned of the “obvious" negative effects on private investment caused by the grave insecurity issues faced by the country.

FRIDAY

ECUADOR: Fifth Solidarity Conference with the Cuban regime.

HONDURAS: Third Conference of the First Ladies & Women Leaders of Latin America Coalition, regarding women and Aids.

SATURDAY

CHILE: European Science and Investigation Commissioner, Janez Potocnik, will begin a 3-day official visit to Chile, where he will meet with economy and education ministers.

VENEZUELA: Venezuelan President, Hugo Chávez , will inaugurate an ammunition and AK-103 rifle manufacturing company, with help from Russia.

SUNDAY

ARGENTINA: Presidential, gubernatorial and legislative elections will take place.

COLOMBIA: Municipal and departmental elections will take place.

CUBA: Second round of national elections for municipal assemblies.

More than 700 arrests in a single day, plus an unknown number of people bruised or suffering the effects of teargas, was the outcome of the first day of the 'Revolution of the Penguins' in Chile's capital, Santiago, staged by secondary-school students aged between 15 and 18. Admitting that repression had been excessive, the government ordered the dismissal of several high-ranking officers of Carabineros, the paramilitary police. A second day of disturbances introduced a worrying new element to the confrontation: the appearance of adults and hooded persons intent on provoking a major riot.

The 'Revolution of the Penguins' has been so labelled in allusion to the typical dress of secondary-school students: blue blazers, white shirts and tie. It had been brewing since the beginning of May in the state schools, as student leaders ranging across the political spectrum demanded a reform that would raise the quality of teaching to those in the private schools, as well as such concessions as free bus passes. The lack of response from the authorities moved them to schedule, for 30 May, mass demonstrations in Santiago and other cities.

The one in the capital, the biggest in 34 years, attracted about 600,000 students, plus more than 100,000 university students, teachers and assorted sympathisers. There was no indication that the demonstrations were meant to be anything other than peaceful, but the Carabineros decided to break them up. They laid into the protesters with teargas, water cannon and batons, as they marched through the avenues or congregated in front of their schools. Journalists covering the event and bystanders were not spared.

By the end of the day some 730 arrests had been reported. Clear evidence that much of the police action had been unprovoked led President Michelle Bachelet to describe the police action as 'reprehensible' and the students' protest as 'legitimate'. She summoned the director of Carabineros, General José Bernales, for a dressing-down. As he emerged from the meeting, Bernales announced that he was relieving the chief of Carabineros special forces, Colonel Jara. Within hours he had also relieved Jara's deputy, and eight other officers directly involved in the repression.

The student protests continued on 31 May. For the most part they were peaceful, but as night fell groups of adults and hooded protesters turned up in central Santiago, at different points along the Alameda, wrecking telephone booths, smashing shop windows, in some cases looting, and attacking the police with barrages of stones. The police isolated the area, cut off all traffic and closed down the Metro stations, and laid into the rioters — though this time their action was much more carefully targeted. By the time calm had been restored, 50 people had been arrested.

Wary of seeing their protest action hijacked by 'infiltrators', the student leaders announced that they would be extending their protests indefinitely, but confining them to closing down their schools.

Underlying the protests is the fact that the poor quality of the state-sector secondary schools acts as a consolidator of the income disparities that make Chile the second most unequal society in South America (the first is Argentina). This is best illustrated by the results of the PSU, the university selection exam. Last year, 70% of those with the highest marks came from private schools, which are attended by only 10% of the students; 20% came from mixed public-private schools; and only 10% from the state schools where almost 90% of the students study.

President-elect Martí­n Torrijos will seek membership of the Mercosur trading bloc when he comes to power on 1 September. That, at least, was the essence of Torrijos's message in Buenos Aires during the second leg of his four-day tour to the Southern Cone between 5 and 8 August.

Torrijos, who met Brazilian counterpart Lula da Silva, Argentina's Néstor Kirchner and Chile's Ricardo Lagos in addition to the president of Mercosur's political commission, Eduardo Duhalde, said that membership of Mercosur would complement Panama's expanding relations with the US. Panama is in the process of negotiating a free trade agreement with the US. 'Panama could be a centre of product distribution' Torrijos said.  

Panama would dearly love to export more services (its strongest export) to the Mercosur region. Panama has a negative trade balance with Mercosur member countries. In the whole of 2003, it exported just US$300,000 of goods to Argentina, while importing US$55m worth of goods.  

There is another reason for Panama's sudden interest in enlisting in Mercosur. An FTA with the US and closer ties with Mercosur would strengthen Panama City's bid to hold the headquarters of the Free Trade Area of the Americas. Panama is competing with the US cities of Miami, Houston and Atlanta; the Mexican cities of Cancún and Puebla; Port-of-Spain, Trinidad & Tobago, and San Juan, Puerto Rico.  

PEOPLE PROFILE is published every Tuesday and describes the professional background of key people emerging in the political and economic scenario.

Who is Romeo Jucá?
He is a senator from the Brazilian state of Roraima. The state is at the heart of the Amazonian region of the country. He is one of the main leaders of the swing parties in the Brazilian congress, the Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB).

Why watch him?
He is the PMDB’s leader in the Brazilian senate and thus is a key ally for the government. President Lula and his Partido dos Trabalhadores emerged as the biggest party in the lower chamber of congress, but with a weaker position in the senate. The PMDB has supported the government’s key reforms to tax and pensions in the lower chamber and is behaving constructively in the senate where the bills are now being considered.

Jucá is one of the most prominent proponents of sustainable development in Amazonia. He has supported indigenous communities against loggers and other quick-buck merchants.

The File

Born: 30 November 1954.

Place of birth: Recife, Pernambuco.

Education:
Economics degree from Universidad Católica de Pernambuco and mining engineering degree from the Universidad Federal de Pernambuco
Married to Teresa Saenz Surita Jucá, with four children: Luciana, Ana Paula, Rodrigo and Marina.

Public life:
His career has been based around federal institutions in a neglected Amazonian region. He spent 10 years building up relations with the federal government for the area for which he is now senator. He is close to former President José Sarney

Timeline

1979: Chief of staff in the housing department in Pernambuco, nominated by the then-governor, Marco Maciel.
1983: Director of special programmes in the housing department in the state of Pernambuco: he managed state programmes to refurbish slums and villages.
1984: Regional sales manager for the northeast for COBAL, the state basic food company, covering the states of Bahia, Sergipe, Alagoas, Pernambuco and Paraíba.
1984: Worked as policy coordinator in the mayor’s office in Recife.
1984: Member of urban services committee in Recife
1985: President of the “Projeto RONDON”, nominated by the President.
1985: Executive secretary of the interministerial committee on education and development.
1986: President of the Fundação Nacional del Indio - FUNAI, nominated by President José Sarney.
1988: Governor of the federal territory of Roraima, nominated by President Sarney.
1992: Director of supply at the Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento - CONAB, which is part of the agriculture and agricultural reform ministries.
1994: Senator for the state of Roraima.

Strong points
He is known in Roraima as a strong defender of indigenous peoples and their interests and of the environment. He advocates strong and careful controls on the way Amazonian areas are developed. Across the country he also has a high profile as a defender of indigenous peoples’ rights.

Weak points
He is accused of being an opportunist on the environment. He has made political capital from high profile confrontations with Brazilian and international companies interested in exploiting the riches of Amazonia.

Prospects
He commands a lot of key votes from the PMDB, which the government needs. His profile is rising and his influence is waxing. His support of the Amazon’s indigenous people has given him national recognition. He could well get one of the cabinet posts, in one of the development ministries, which Lula will offer to the PMDB towards the end of the year.

Who is he? Johnny Araya is the former mayor of San José and current front-runner in the race to become the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN)'s nomination for the 2009 Costa Rican elections.

Why watch him? With the two opposition parties, Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC) and Partido Unidad Social Cristiana, well behind in early election polls, the winner of the party primaries will be in a strong position to succeed President Oscar Arias, also of the PLN.

Born: 29 April 1957

Education: Araya graduated in Agricultural Engineering from the University of Costa Rica (UCR) in 1982. In 1992 he attended a course at Harvard University designed for Latin American mayors.

Public Life: Politically active from a young age, Araya hails from the leftwing of the PLN. Like his brother Rolando, the PLN's presidential candidate in the 2002 elections, he is a member of Socialist International.

After graduating, Araya went straight into municipal politics, an area he describes as one of his passions. In the late 1980s he worked in the policy unit of the PLN, during which time he embraced the ideals of social democracy and liberation theory.

In 1991 he was elected as 'Municipal Executive' for the capital, San José, but in the Municipal Code of 1998 the position was renamed mayor and subject to direct election. Araya has since run two very successful election mayoral election campaigns.

Timeline:

1976: Elected representative of High Student Council of UCR.
1982: Graduates in Agricultural Engineering.
1982: Worked at the Municipal Council of San José.
1986: Worked in the policy unit of the PLN, representing the Professionals Sector.
1991: Appointed Municipal Executive for San José.
2002: Elected Mayor of San José.
2006: Re-elected as Mayor of San José.

Strengths: Within the PLN, Araya presents himself as the candidate of change, whilst his main opponent, the former vice president and justice minister, Laura Chinchilla, President Arias's favoured nominee, is seen as the candidate of continuity. With Chinchilla running as more of a centrist candidate, this has created space for Araya to run on a conventional left-leaning social democrat platform.

Heavily reliant on trade with the US, Costa Rica is enduring a difficult year in the current economic climate. However, polls suggest that the electorate trusts the incumbent PLN more on the economy than the opposition, which veers towards populist responses.

Araya has tried to differentiate himself from the Arias administration by criticising its bureaucracy and inefficiency, with particular emphasis on the tardy introduction of a series of economic stimulus measures to combat the financial crisis. As a leftist candidate, he is also more overtly focused on social issues.

He has proposed the creation of a public agency to ensure that the public investments envisaged in the stimulus package are implemented quickly and efficiently.

Weaknesses: Many commentators are sceptical of the ability of a leftist candidate to win the nomination of a party dominated by arismo (the heavy hitting political grouping centred around the current president and his brother Rodrigo Arias).

Arias openly favours Chinchilla and Araya has spoken-out against official 'favouritism' towards his opponent.

Even if his anti-bureaucratic, pro-poor message finds resonance with the electorate, in Chinchilla, Araya is facing a politician with excellent communication skills and a strong support base amongst young and urban voters. According to some polls, she is the most popular politician in the country.

Prospects: Araya has been praised by many for the strength of his anti-poverty policy promises and several PLN deputies that had originally announced their support for Chinchilla have publically switched their allegiances.

The electoral authorities have ruled to censure Arias for comments he made suggesting a woman should succeed him, making the president's explicit support for Chinchilla more problematic moving forward.

According to local pollsters Unimer, in February Chinchilla had the support of 39% of PLN members, compared to 50% for Araya. That support broadly splits along age, income and urban/rural lines, with first time/younger, urban and more educated voters favouring Chinchilla, who also attracts more of the female vote. Araya picks up the middle-aged and working class segments in the metropolitan area,

With the 7 June primaries fast approaching, it promises to be tight race.

CENTRAL AMERICA | Regional security centre. On 18 April, Sica's new operational regional security centre (COSR-Sica in the Spanish acronym) was formally inaugurated on the site of Senan, Panama's aeronaval service, on the banks of the Panama Canal. Its task will be to exchange information and provide follow-up for coordinated operations against organised crime carried out in fulfilment of the Central American security strategy (Esca). The decision to create this centre was taken at a meeting of Sica's security officials in Antigua, Guatemala, last September. An international conference to support the Esca will bring together the region's security officials and representatives of donor countries — which so far include Canada, Chile, Colombia, the EU, Finland, Germany, Italy, Israel, Mexico, the Netherlands, South Korea, Spain, the US and Taiwan.

CUBA | Prisoner releases. Following the arrival of a batch of 37 released Cuban prisoners on 8 April, the Spanish government announce that the Cuban government had completed its release of political prisoners and prisoners of conscience. It noted that of 115 prisoners released, 103 had gone to Spain, accompanied by 647 relatives. Of the 155, only 12 members of the Group of 75 had chosen to stay in Cuba.

The Spanish government's claim has, however, been challenged by José Gabriel Ramón Castillo, a released member of the Group of 75 who has been in Spain since 2008. He said that at least 55 ‘political prisoners who virtually nobody knows' are still being held in confinement. Of these, 52 are on a list compiled by the Council of Rapporteurs on Human Rights in Cuba, and three more, who are imprisoned in eastern Cuba, he knows personally.

Castillo's claim has been endorsed by another member of the Group of 75, Julio César Gálvez, who arrived in Spain last July. He mentioned the cases of three persons, imprisoned, respectively, in 1994, 1995 and 1998, whose situation had been ‘eclipsed' by the attention focused on the Group of 75.

GUATEMALA | Decrease in violent deaths reported. The Grupo de Apoyo Mutuo (GAM), an NGO that monitors human rights, reported on 13 April that in the first quarter of this year there were 874 homicides, compared with 909 in the same period of 2010. The GAM has noted, though, that the monthly death toll this year has been rising: 275 cases in January, 295 in February, and 304 in March.

In Q1 2011, there were 56 lynchings, 15 of which ended in the death of the victims. Of all the homicide victims in the first quarter, 35 were killed in nine incidents classified as ‘massacres' (collective killings). Typical of these was the 7 April attack on a bar in Chiquimula, in which five were killed and 12 injured.

Prominent among the homicide victims were 28 bus drivers and 20 public transport auxiliaries, killed by street gangs for resisting extortion. The next largest group of victims was shopkeepers, most of them presumed to have been killed for the same reason.

Development: On 8 July Costa Rica received an invitation from Venezuela to join Petrocaribe, the energy cooperation agreement which offers Venezuelan oil to Central American and Caribbean countries on preferential financing terms.

Significance:  Apart from El Salvador, the US-allied Costa Rica is the only remaining Central American country not to have signed up to Petrocaribe. However, with the local economy struggling to cope with soaring oil import costs, the government of President Oscar Arias may find the temptation of cheap oil too hard to resist, even at the risk of irking the US, its main trade and investment partner.

According to Costa Rica's environment and energy minister, Roberto Dobles, the invitation to join Petrocaribe came from his Venezuelan counterpart, Rafael Ramírez.

A high level Costa Rican delegation will have observer status at the upcoming summit of the heads of state and government of Petrocaribe this weekend in Maracaibo, Venezuela, with a view to exploring Costa Rica's potential adhesion to the group. The delegation will consist of external relations minister, Bruno Stagno, and executive president of Costa Rica's state oil company, Recope, José León Desanti. According to Dobles, the delegation will "take a thorough look" at the facilities offered by Petrocaribe.

The minister issued a statement noting that the rising cost of fuel had prompted the authorities to explore the Petrocaribe option. According to the government, Costa Rica's fuel import bill will double this year to reach US$2.8bn. In recent weeks the Arias government has taken various coping measures to reduce fuel usage, including restrictions on the use of cars locally.

Under Petrocaribe, launched in June 2005 with 15 Caribbean states, Venezuela's state oil firm Pdvsa sells oil to other state-controlled entities on soft financing terms, which typically stipulate that 50% be paid within 90 days and the rest over a 25 year period at an annual interest rate of  1% (with a two-year grace period). On 3 July Guatemala became the 17th country to sign up to the alliance.

Development: On 7 May, Venezuela's energy minister, Rafael Ramírez, said that the government would invest BF60bn (US$14bn) in the construction of 350,000 new homes in 2011-2012, noting that the state is preparing to move to seize urban lands deemed idle.

Significance: To the chagrin of his opponents, President Hugo Chávez is heading into the presidential election with tail wind in the form of a fresh oil price windfall. He remains popular with around 48% of the population, including a large section of loyal low-income voters. His nearest rival for 2012, Henrique Capriles Radonski, the state governor of Miranda, has an approval rating of about 55%, going on two recent polls, but Radonski has his work cut out to: a) become the main opposition candidate; and b) to mount a national challenge against Chávez and his well-oiled and efficient electoral machine.

Key points:

• The Chávez government can afford a pre-electoral spending spree, with treasury coffers given a double injection thanks to a fresh devaluation of the Bolívar in January and the added bonus of soaring oil prices. Chávez last week awarded fat pay increases for mid ranking public sector workers. Ramírez stressed that funding for the housing program is guaranteed (in part thanks to agreements with other countries) and insisted that oil price movements would not affect the scheme. Venezuela's housing deficit is 2.0m homes, requiring some 34,000 hectares of land, according to Ramírez.  In the past 12 years, the Chávez government has only managed an annual average of 35,000 new homes.

• The additional oil dollars flowing into the economy seem to be helping to ease supply pressures, with inflation dipping to 1.5% month-on-month and 22.9% year-on-year in April. 

• Moving forward, however, it may head back up as the government puts its foot on the accelerator for 2012. Moreover, opposition economists say that proposed new presidential decree legislation aimed at capping inflation and ending alleged market speculation  –Ley de Costos, Precios y Protección del Salario,  which would give the state price control over all locally produced goods-  could actually have the reverse effect by acting as a further disincentive to national production. The Chávez administration has imposed an array of price controls and has intervened across a range of designated key sectors, with mixed results.