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  • PERU: Democracy gets vote of no confidence

    12 July 2010 Hits: 241

    Development: A massive 73.5% of Peruvians who responded to a national survey on democracy in Peru said they felt that Peru needed an authoritarian government and 90% blamed politicians for the failure of democracy in the country, according to the 2006 human development report released on 22 March.

    Significance: The Peruvian media is getting worked up over the findings of the report, the release of which coincides with the rise of the nationalist candidate Ollanta Humala to the top of the polls ahead of presidential elections on 9 April. Several politicians and influential Peruvians have warned that Humala's brand of authoritarianism is a threat to democracy. The latest warning came from the president of congress, Marcial Ayaipoma, on 22 March. He said that an Humala victory would be a "national disaster". He also said that there was no provision in the constitution for Humala's plans to call a constituent assembly to redraw the constitution and that this was an attempt to legitimise a coup.

    Humala, meanwhile, claims that he is the victim of a fear campaign. "If Lima ´s Stock Market falls or the US dollar raises prices with regard to the Nuevo sol, the country blames Ollanta," he said on 22 March, adding that "the only ones who should be afraid are those who do not fulfil budgets and steal from the country."

    Humala went on to outline his plans to boost the agriculture sector by promising investment of US$5bn a year (including, significantly, foreign investment) and the creation of an agrarian bank for small producers. He also repeated the "Coca yes, cocaine no" slogan used by Bolivia's president Evo Morales. He said he was against coca eradication but would look for a profitable alternative to coca to give coca growers the choice. Previous governments have searched exhaustively for such a crop but nothing is as profitable as coca.

  • COSTA RICA: Arias announces cabinet

    12 July 2010 Hits: 282

    Development: On 27 April the president-elect, Oscar Arias, announced the members of his cabinet.

    Significance: The new president is going to downsize his cabinet from 19 to 17 posts. Of these, 11 have served in previous administrations as ministers or vice-ministers. They will be charged with fulfilling Arias's promise to be the scourge of monopolies, both public and private. Despite his self-confessed "humbling", by the slim nature of his victory over Ottón Solí­s, Arias appears determined to push ahead with the Central American Free Trade Agreement (Cafta) as a way of realising his goal of reducing poverty levels in the country from 21% to 17% by 2010.

    When the new cabinet takes over on 8 May (the new legislature takes up office a week earlier), it will be led by the president's brother, Rodrigo Arias, minister of the presidency. According to Oscar, Rodrigo will be in charge of "fighting corruption ceaselessly, setting up a dialogue between the social sectors and politicians and ensuring better levels of governability in the country."

    The two vice-presidents, Laura Chinchilla and Kevin Casas will serve in the ministries of justice and planning, respectively. A prominent businessman, Marco Vinicio Ruiz, will be in charge of foreign trade; Bruno Stagno, a career diplomat, will take over at the foreign ministry, and the finance minister will be the economist Guillermo Zúñiga who will be charged with trying to reform the country's tax system. Interestingly, Arias has chosen to stick with the current president of the central bank, Francisco de Paula.

  • BRAZIL: Alckmin, the optimist

    12 July 2010 Hits: 258

    Development: The presidential candidate for the opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), Geraldo Alckmin, gave an optimistic interview on 3 June.

    Significance: Talking to (the strongly anti-government) "Veja", Alckmin said to he is not worried about the results of opinion polls putting President Lula da Silva well ahead in the race for the presidency in October. Alckmin warned the President that "training is altogether a different thing than the proper match, which will only start once the [free televised slots reserved for parties] start" in July.

    Alckmin, however, recognised he had some "difficulties" at the start of his campaign. He referred to the tough alliance negotiations with the rightwing Partido da Frente Liberal (PFL), in which the PSDB had to agree to withdraw its candidates from local elections in favour of PFL runners. Yet he said that two parties have now "adjusted" to each other and are "now dancing to the same tune".

    Alckmin took a swipe at Lula, saying that unlike the President he would "not enter any accord to save either family or friends" [if they are] accused of corruption if he is elected in October. He continued by saying that he will present Brazilians with "a project centred in economic development and moral reform". Alckmin also said that if elected he would end the south-south foreign policy pursued by the current government and that he will be tougher with the landless movements which support squatters on farmland.

  • ECUADOR: Cabinet offers resignations

    12 July 2010 Hits: 192

    Development: On 6 July almost all of the Ecuadorean cabinet formally offered their resignations.

    Significance: The move appears to have been orchestrated by the presidential secretary, José Modesto Apolo, to get rid of the economy and energy ministers, Diego Borja and Iván Rodrí­guez. Both are suspected of frustrating the plans of President Alfredo Palacio, who has a little over six months left of his mandate.

    With the exception of the ministers of defence, foreign relations and the interior, all of the cabinet offered their resignations to Palacio. The minister of labour, Galo Chiriboga, said there was no crisis and denied Modesto Apolo had asked him to offer his resignation. "There is no presentation of resignations, there is no cabinet crisis, what is happening is a demonstration by ministers to ask the president if he wishes to change his government he should feel free to do so," Chiriboga said.

    Borja, one of the ministers who looks set to lose his position, gave a different version of events. "The presidential secretary asked me to offer my resignation to the president, so that the president can govern for the next six months with ministers who have his confidence," he said. Various rumours are circulating in the local press as to why Borja and Rodrí­guez are out of favour.

    Apparently, Palacio is annoyed by Borja's decision to veto the suggestion of the foreign trade minister to lift tariffs on imports from Andean countries to offset potential problems caused by the end of the Andean Trade Promotion and Drug Eradication Act with the US at the end of 2006. As regards Rodrí­guez, the president is thought to be unhappy with the final text of the hydrocarbons law the minister has been working on, which will grant 50% of foreign oil companies' windfall profits to the state.

  • MEXICO: Protester shot dead in Oaxaca

    12 July 2010 Hits: 187

    Development: On 10 August a protester was shot dead in the troubled southern state of Oaxaca when gunmen opened fire on a march of about 8,000 people.

    Significance: For three months primary and secondary school teachers have been on strike in Oaxaca, demanding higher pay and the resignation of the governor, Ulises Ruiz, from the Partido Revolucionario Institutional (PRI). Yesterday's demonstrators came from the radical section 22 of the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de Educación (SNTE) and the Asamblea Popular del Pueblo de Oaxaca (APPO). The APPO, which supports defeated leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador, has declared itself the governing body of the state. Although Oaxaca has long been unsettled, the worry is that the protest actions that have caused havoc in Mexico City will spread throughout the country.

    The attackers opened fire as the teachers marched through the streets of Oaxaca city, killing José Jimenez, the husband of a teacher, and injuring two others. Protesters later captured four men they believed responsible for the killing, and torched the house where they had taken refuge. They also set fire to a number of ambulances outside the clinic where the dead man was taken. The shooting followed the killing, on 9 August, of three Triqui Indians, one of whom was 12 years old, who were on their way to Oaxaca city to take part in the protests.

    The initial reason for the teachers' strike, which began in late April, was simply for higher pay. Although this is an almost annual event, in the past the protests have been brief. This time the teachers wanted parity with their counterparts in neighbouring Chiapas, which would cost the state M$1.4bn (US$127m) a year. Half the money would have gone to individual teachers and half to the powerful SNTE, run by Elba Esther Gordillo, a PRI dissident engaged in a long-running feud with the governor, Ruiz. Gordillo, the first person to call the winner of the presidential election, Felipe Calderón, "president-elect", fancies herself as a powerbroker in the next congress. The speculation is that Gordillo is behind the Oaxaca protests, which are likely to further alienate would-be López Obrador sympathizers.

    Also on 10 August, gunmen opened fire in the office of the newspaper "Noticias, Voz e Imagen de Oaxaca". Two armed men stormed into the building and fired into the air. The attack happened in the alternative offices of the newspaper; the main one is currently occupied by workers affiliated to the PRI, who are protesting against the newspaper's critical coverage of the state government. President Vicente Fox's spokesman, Rubén Aguilar, condemned the attack on the newspaper. He said that it was a problem that the government of the state should resolve but that the presidency was happy to offer any help it could.

    Meanwhile, three anti-López Obrador parties in Chiapas resolved to fight the gubernatorial election together in order to beat the candidate from the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD). Calderón's Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), the PRI, and Gordillo's Nueva Alianza, agreed to back the PRI's candidate, José Antonio Aguilar on 20 August. López Obrador responded by saying he would travel to the state next week in order to ensure no "fraud" was perpetrated against his candidate, Juan Sabines. Chiapas, one of the poorest states in the country with a long history of revolutionary unrest, could become the next area of Mexico to become mired in protests.

    Two days into the partial recount of the vote that gave Calderón a narrow victory over López Obrador and contradictory accounts about the scale of irregularities are surfacing in the local press. Although none of the recount can be officially revealed, party activists are leaking claims and counter-claims to the papers. The press supporting Calderón claims that there are very few changes to the original tally, while López Obrador's supporters say the discrepancies so far provide a compelling case for extending the recount.

  • BOLIVIA: Soliz resigns as energy minister

    12 July 2010 Hits: 354

    Development: Andrés Soliz Rada resigned as energy minister on 15 September.

    Significance: Soliz went because he was unhappy that his decision to issue a ministerial decree on 12 September which stripped Petrobras, the biggest foreign investor in the country, of a lot of its downstream business in Bolivia, had been countermanded by the increasingly influential vice-president, Alvaro Garcí­a Linera. Garcí­a Linera replaced Soliz with the planning minister, Carlos Villegas, promoting Villegas's deputy Hernando Larrazábal to head the planning ministry.

    Garcí­a Linera made the decisions because President Evo Morales is on a trip to the Non-Aligned summit in Cuba and then the UN in New York.

    The resignation of Soliz should help negotiations with foreign energy companies. The government "nationalised" the energy industry on 1 May but wants to negotiate with the energy companies about how this will work in practice. The government set itself a deadline of the end of October to agree new "partnerships" with the foreign energy companies.

    Garcí­a Linera warned the energy companies that the government would be tough in its negotiations: the departure of Soliz, however, belies his words. The government has meetings scheduled for this week with foreign energy companies, notably Repsol-YPF, TotalFinaElf and British Gas.

  • MEXICO: Oaxaca teachers split over going back to work

    12 July 2010 Hits: 205

    Development: On 22 October striking teachers in the southern state of Oaxaca said that they would hold a second ballot on whether to go back to work.

    Significance: The 70,000 teachers in the state are divided over whether to continue their five-month strike which has brought the state to the edge of anarchy. There are also signs that Enrique Rueda, the leader of the radical Section 22 of the teachers union, is losing control of his members. He was accused of being a traitor for arguing that the teachers should now go back to work. This is what Elba Esther Gordillo, the dominant force in the national teachers' union, the SNTE, had ordered on 18 October. 

    In the first ballot of teachers, on 22 October, a majority of teachers (25,692 to 17,483) voted to start teaching again from today, 23 October. The hardliners, however, pointed out that 12,179 teachers had refused to make the choice (go back or stay out) offered by the ballot. These hardliners said that they would not return to work while Ulises Ruiz remained governor. The radicals forced the union to hold a second ballot on 23 and 24 October to decide what to do. The result of this ballot will be announced on 26 October.

    What is clear from the vote by the teachers is that the divisions in the teachers union are geographic. Teachers in indigenous areas, especially around the Isthmus of Tehuantepec voted heavily to go back after big demonstrations in favour of Ruiz last week. Teachers in and around Oaxaca City voted to stay out. The polarisation of the state increases the risk of further violence: so far six people have been killed in confrontations between the state authorities and the teachers and their supporters in the Asamblea Popular de los Pueblos de Oaxaca (APPO). The APPO has barricaded itself into the centre of Oaxaca, holding 2,000 people hostage and thus deterring the federal authorities from using force to end the anarchy.

  • BRAZIL: New investigation as another ends unpunished

    12 July 2010 Hits: 207

    Development: On 28 November the Brazilian senate decided to open an investigation over allegations that non-governmental organisations (NGOs) were being used to finance electoral campaigns illegally.

    Significance: According to a report from the independent ombudsman, up to 54% of NGOs that received government funds in the last three years do not have the capability to provide services they were supposed to. The report led to suspicion that these NGOs were being used as a facade to channel public money to finance the electoral campaigns of allied parties in a scheme similar to the one uncovered last year in public companies. 

    The senate's decision was welcomed by the Brazilian press. Yet many commentators doubt whether there is any real point in parliamentary investigations. The latest investigative committee in the senate was set up on the same day three senators were cleared by their peers over allegations of corruption. 

    Senators Ney Suassuna, Serys Slhessarenko and Magno Malta were implicated in the so-called sanguessuga corruption scandal. According to the police, the three and other 70 or so congressmen presented bills favouring a private supplier of medical material in exchange for kickbacks. Investigative committees were set up in both houses of congress. Despite evidence found by the police, the senate decided to clear the accused senators. Congressmen have immunity from common prosecution. The senate's pardon means the three accused will not go to court.

  • NICARAGUA: Ortega names cabinet

    12 January 2007 Hits: 644

    Development: The Nicaraguan president, Daniel Ortega, who was inaugurated on 10 January, announced the names of his cabinet on the same day, with the exception of the position of defence minister.

    Significance: Ortega was sworn in at the inauguration ceremony alongside cabinet members who had not been officially named. The list of ministers he announced on 11 January was notable for the number of loyal Sandinistas appointed to high profile positions. In keeping with Ortega's pledge to promote sexual equality in his cabinet, five women were given key roles. 

    The foreign minister will be Samuel Santos, a Sandinista and the former mayor of Managua while Ortega was in power in the 1980s. Santos is an outspoken supporter of the Nicaraguan canal project and has already met with delegates from Japan and Korea to discuss it.

    The economist Alberto Guevara will be in charge of the treasury. Guevara, who won a study grant from the Inter-American Development Bank, has studied in Chile, Barcelona and Mexico. The ex-guerrilla Ana Isabel Morales will lead the ministry of the interior.

    On 11 January Nicaragua formalised ties with Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia by joining Alba, a trade bloc set up by Venezuela as an alternative to the US-led Free Trade Area of the Americas. Nicaragua will also remain in Cafta-DR.

  • MEXICO: Government claims unlikely narco success

    19 February 2007 Hits: 230

    Development: The security minister, Genaro Garcí­a Luna, claimed on 18 February that the federal government's anti-drugs offensives had delivered results in Michoacán and Tijuana. 

    Significance: Garcí­a Luna relied on statistics showing an increase in the number of arrests to justify his claim. The problem is that the statistics for arrests may look impressive, but the government's claims for drug eradication look preposterous. The government claimed to have eradicated virtually as much opium poppy as marijuana: 3,873 hectares of marijuana and 3,324 hectares of opium poppies since the offensives started on 6 December. 

    The figure for opium poppy eradication looks wildly inaccurate. The US government estimated in 2005 that 3,300 hectares were devoted to opium poppy cultivation in Mexico. The UN's Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC) noted that Mexico did not provide any cultivation data for UNODC's 2006 report on opium cultivation. 

    On 18 February the Mexican government also announced that it was extending its anti-drugs offensives to Nuevo León and Tamaulipas. The interior minister, Francisco Ramí­rez Acuña claimed that the government's offensive was unprecedented. This week 2,035 soldiers; 750 marines and 516 officers from the Policia Federal Preventiva have been dispatched to Tamaulipas and Nuevo León.

  • Central America & Uruguay

    23 March 2007 Hits: 148

    CENTRAL AMERICA: The Central American Economic Integration Bank (BCIE) approved loans worth US$2.24bn last year to finance projects in the region, US$1.65bn of which has already been disbursed.

    URUGUAY: Uruguay's economy grew by 7% in 2006 boosted by the communications and transport sectors. The economy in the fourth quarter of the year was up 1% on the third quarter. The central bank forecasts the economy will grow 4.5% in 2007. In 2005 the economy grew 6.6%.

  • BRAZIL-BOLIVIA: Gas still causing rifts

    27 April 2007 Hits: 207

    Development: On 26 April the Bolivian press reported that the Bolivian government has offered less than half the amount sought as compensation by Brazil's energy company, Petrobras, for two refineries expropriated under last year's “nationalisation programme". 

    Significance: According to the Bolivian daily El Deber, the Bolivian government offered to pay Petrobras US$70m for two refineries, one in Cochabamba and the other in Santa Cruz. Petrobras wants US$160m for them. Petrobras argues that apart from the installations themselves, the Bolivian government should also pay for all the capital invested to build the refineries. 

    It seems that the Bolivian government does not have the money to compensate Petrobras and may have to offer an “operational partnership". Under the scheme the Bolivian state-owned YPFB would share the operational management of the two refineries with Petrobras but control their commercial and administrative management solely. Brazilian representatives have been in Bolivia since 24 April to negotiate the terms of compensation. 

    Petrobras does not see Bolivia as a trustworthy partner anymore. Indeed, the company has sought new gas suppliers to compensate for the Brazilian government's acceptance of higher prices for the gas the company imports from Bolivia last February. Petrobras announced on 26 April it had signed a “master agreement" with the Nigerian company LGN to supply liquefied gas. Petrobras has already leased two Norwegian ships to transport the gas from Nigeria as from 2008. The Nigerian gas would provide 21m cubic meters of Brazil's daily demand. In February Brazil consumed 38m cubic meters of gas a day.

  • Guyana and Trinidad tied to New York plot

    04 June 2007 Hits: 232

    Development: On 2 June the US authorities accused three Guyananese and one Trinidadian of plotting to blow up fuel tanks and pipelines at New York's John F Kennedy Airport.

    Significance: The Federal Bureau of Investigations (FBI) says the four men are Islamic extremists who belong to a Caribbean terrorist cell. The FBI claimed that two of those accused - Abdul Kadir and Abdel Nur - belonged to the Jamaat Al Muslimeen radical group which had disappeared after allegedly orchestrating a coup in Trinidad and Tobago in 1990.

    Kadir and Nur are both from Guyana. Kadir, a member of parliament until last year's elections and erstwhile mayor of Linden, was arrested by Trinidadian officials on 1 June at the island's international airport before he boarded a flight for Venezuela. Nur is still at large and thought to be hiding in Trinidad. The other two men are Kareem Ibrahim, a Trinidadian, and Russell DeFreitas, a naturalised US citizen originally from Guyana.

    The FBI claims that DeFreitas, who used to work at JFK airport, told one of its informants about the plot and said it would be bigger than 9/11. The four men reportedly started plotting the attack in January 2006 but had not yet acquired any explosives.

  • Mexico tribunal approves Hank

    09 July 2007 Hits: 299

    Development: On 7 July the federal electoral tribunal overruled a state tribunal and declared that Jorge Hank Rhon could stand in the gubernatorial elections in Baja California Norte.

    Significance: The federal decision is good news for the national government. Hank's party, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), had threatened to break off relations with the government of President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa if Hank was barred from the 5 August election. The government, which has only 206 of the 500 seats in the lower chamber of congress, would like PRI support in congress for its fiscal reform package but this appears to be less essential following a decision on 8 July by the leftwing Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) to take a constructive attitude to the reform proposals in congress. Hardliners in the PRD, led by the party's defeated presidential candidate, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, had wanted the PRD to oppose the reforms.

    Hank, a hugely controversial figure, had been lagging in opinion polls behind José Guadalupe Osuna Millán, the candidate for the governorship from the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN). Millán tried to get Hank barred from the election. The PAN, to which President Calderón belongs, has ruled Baja for the past 18 years. It is not clear whether the voters will punish the PAN for trying to deprive them of their right to choose their governor.

    The decision to allow Hank to run for the governorship was unanimous at the Tribunal Electoral del Poder Judicial de la Federación (TEPJF). The tribunal's reasoning was that the federal constitution which allows eligible citizens to run for public office overrides Article 42 in the Baja California constitution which excludes people who have been elected to public offices standing for election to other public offices. Hank was elected mayor of Tijuana in 2004 and though he has obtained leave of absence from that post he is in clear breach of the Baja California rules. The TEPJF ruled that the Baja California constitution did not comply with the international treaties Mexico had signed and therefore had to yield to the provisions of the federal constitution.

    The president of TEPJF, Flavio Galván, enunciated two interesting constitutional principles when announcing the verdict. The first is that in cases where federal and state rules are contradictory, the more liberal rule (the one that allows a citizen to do something) should take precedence over the rule that restricts.

    The second significant juridical interpretation is that commitments enshrined in international treaties are part of the national legal system and take precedence over state rules and regulations. This interpretation, if applied to human rights, has major implications for the Calderón government. The government's deployment of troops to support the police may well breach Mexico's international commitments. So it may not just be a coincidence that the defence ministry announced on 7 July that it was withdrawing 5,000 troops from the government's antidrugs offensives.

  • Drop in popularity for Bolivian president

    07 August 2007 Hits: 229

    Development: A survey published on 6 August revealed that the popularity of Bolivian president Evo Morales has dropped to 49%.

    Significance: The poll, undertaken by Captura Consulting and published in local newspaper El Deber, showed Morales' approval rating to have declined to 49% while criticism of his leadership increased to 41%. The survey also exposed the increasing divisions within the country.

    Just 27% of those questioned in the wealthier eastern department of Santa Cruz backed the president while at the other end of the spectrum, 78% of interviewees in the El Alto township overlooking La Paz, declared their support for Morales. The poll bears a marked contrast to a previous survey undertaken by Ipsos, Apoyo, Opinion y Mercado and published in newspaper, La Razón, on 27 July, which showed Morales to have a 61% approval rating nationwide.

    Meanwhile on 6 August, the anniversary of Bolivian independence, Morales presented his annual report of the nation before congress, in a speech lasting nearly four hours. Rather than dwelling on the recent tension surrounding the constituent assembly, the redrafting of the constitution, demands for autonomy and the proposed capital switch, Morales focused instead on Bolivia's economy.

    The president emphasized Bolivia's surplus and "record" international reserves and he identified "dignity, sovereignty, democracy and productivity" as the four components determining the work of the government. He added that, in 10 or 20 years, the country could surpass Switzerland, which in 2006 had the most competitive economy in the world - statements which were dismissed as absurd by the opposition.

    After referring to the nationalisation of hydrocarbons and mining, he acknowledged economic difficulties - namely inflation. According to local daily, Los Tiempos, the rate of inflation will reach 6.43% by the end of the year, up from 2.5% in 2006.

  • Argentina; Chile & Region

    12 September 2007 Hits: 143

    ARGENTINA: 3.5m foreign tourists are expected to visit Argentina this year, bringing some US$3.2bn in revenues. The government wants to double the number of visitors by 2016.

    CHILE: Nearly 15% of the work force earns a salary that is less than the legal minimum wage of US$480, according to the latest Survey of National Socioeconomic Composition (CASEN).

    REGION: Argentina's president Nestor Kirchner is the most popular leader in Latin America, with 71% approval rating according to Consulta Mitofsky, Mexican public opinion consultant. Colombia's Alvaro Uribe and Mexico's Felipe Calderon come second with 66%. They are followed by Panama's Martin Torrijos with  60%; and El Salvador's Antonio Saca; Honduras's Manuel Zelaya and Bolivia's Evo Morales all with 57% approval. Ecuador's Rafael Correa is sixth with 56%, followed by Uruguay's Tabare Vazquez 51%, and Venezuela's Hugo Chavez 50%. Brazil's Lula da Silva is ranked tenth with 48%, ahead of Guatemala' s Oscar Berger 42%; Chile's Michelle Bachelet 39% and Dominican Republic's Leonel Fernandez, 38%. Bottom of the list are Peru's Alan Garcí­a 32%; Nicaragua's Daniel Ortega 26%; and Paraguay's Nicanor Duarte,11%.The poll was conducted in between July and August.

  • Chile & Ecuador

    15 October 2007 Hits: 271

    CHILE: The central bank kept the interest rate at 5.75% on 11 October. It has crept it from 5% over the last five months in order to contain inflationary pressure. Inflation in September was 1.1% and 6.2% for the first nine months of the year. This is already greater than the government's annual prediction of 5.5%.

    ECUADOR: The economy minister, Fausto Ortiz, said that the government plans to reduce the fiscal deficit and debt by means of increased oil earnings after its decision last week to increase the tax on windfall profits of foreign oil companies from 50% to 99%. The government expects to get an extra US$840m a year, of which US$500m (1% of GDP) will be ploughed into the fiscal deficit.

  • New penal code approved in Nicaragua

    14 November 2007 Hits: 221

    Development: On 13 November the national assembly approved the new penal code in its entirety.

    Significance: The question of the penal code has been key to the continued pact between the ruling Frente Sandinista Liberación Nacional (FSLN) and representatives of former president Arnoldo Alemán, unofficial leader of the opposition Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC).

    Under the new penal code, which takes effect next March, Alemán could be free by the end of 2008. The code stipulates a maximum 10-year sentence for money laundering (the charge against Alemán for which he began serving a 20-year sentence in 2002). According to the new law, prisoners can appeal to be released for good behaviour after serving half of the sentence.

    Nevertheless, Alemán's case for "good behaviour" will be decided ultimately by the judicial power - one of the public institutions politicised under the FSLN-PLC pact in which posts were divvied up between both parties. The former president's freedom therefore remains very much in the hands of the FSLN.

    The manoeuvring between Alemán and President Daniel Ortega is likely to have an impact on the dispute over congress's attempts to sever links between the executive and citizen power councils (CPCs). Ortega vetoed the legislature's plan, a decision which was itself condemned by a congressional committee earlier this week.

    Ortega maintains that the CPCs are a means of encouraging popular participation and will simply co-ordinate the work of NGOs and public institutions in each of the country's 15 departments, but his critics argue that the FSLN will use the councils to consolidate its power. With Alemán pushing for his liberty, he is expected to pressure the PLC deputies into supporting Ortega's position and back the presidential veto.

  • Tax reform in Ecuador 'by end of year'

    18 December 2007 Hits: 535

    Development: The constituent assembly said on 17 December that it expected to approve a tax reform by the end of 2007.

    Significance: The constituent assembly wants to get some results on the board before moving on to more controversial issues, such as electoral reform and the reorganisation of congress. The problem is that the government is talking about the constituent assembly approving a new law by the end of year, which will then come into force on 1 January 2008. This is likely to set off a confrontation with congress, which, constitutionally, is the only body with the power to pass laws and which the assembly placed in "indefinite recess" on 29 November.

    One problem that is emerging with the constituent assembly is that its working week is pretty short: members seem to like their long weekends. The assembly rarely gets started much before 5pm on Monday afternoon, and even then the vagaries of air travel in the country mean that some members are still not present. On 17 December, for example, Ximena Bohórquez (from the Honradez Nacional group), wife of the last elected president Lucio Gutiérrez, did not get to Montecristi where the constituent assembly is meeting until 6pm.

    The tax reform proposal, which will be considered by the Mesa de Legislación y Fiscalización, has already required expert advice from the tax service. The committee expects to distribute the proposal to all 130 members of the assembly for their comments. Assembly members then have three days to make comments which are considered by the 10-person committee responsible for that part of the constitution. The president, Rafael Correa, will then be invited to comment, probably on 21 December, when the majority report from the committee is published. The President has 10 days to consider his response to the reform. The government wants the new tax reform approved by the constituent assembly by Saturday, 29 December.

  • Region

    30 January 2008 Hits: 103

    REGION: Panama is the Latin American country that most reduced its unemployment rate in 2007, from 10.4% of the working population to 7.7%. Argentina came second (from 10.7% to 8.8%), followed by Uruguay (from 11.9% to 10%), Venezuela (10.5% to 9%), Chile (8.4% to 7.1%), Colombia (13.2% to 12%), Costa Rica (6% to 4.8%), Brazil (10.2% to 9.7%), Ecuador (10.3% to 9.8%) and then Peru (8.8% to 8.7%). Mexico's the unemployment rate, although the lowest in the region, increased in 2007 from 3.6% to 3.8%.