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  • BRAZIL: Hopes for beef sales to China

    12 July 2010 Hits: 169

    President Lula da Silva began his trip to China on 23 May. The visit has sparked great media interest and the pressure is on both countries to show that it will deliver tangible results. The Brazilian minister for foreign trade, industry and development, Luiz Furlan, floated the idea on 23 May that China is likely to allow Brazil to export beef and other meats to China.

    Furlan and the Brazilian agriculture minister, Roberto Rodrigues, met officials from the Chinese quarantine ministry to discuss the fito-sanitary rules on meat exports to China. China stopped importing Brazilian beef three years ago because of fears about foot-and-mouth disease.

    The Brazilian ministers are also pressing the Chinese to review the ban on soyabean imports from Brazil. The Chinese say that they banned the soya because it was riddled with pesticides and herbicides: although Rodrigues apologised officially for the dirtiness of the shipments in question, he said that this was a one-off occurrence.

    The Brazilians believe that the Chinese are also exploiting the issue because of the recent slide in soya prices on the international markets. The Chinese want to try to get Brazil to lower the prices at which the soyabean deals were done.

  • BRAZIL: IAEA demands inspection

    12 July 2010 Hits: 208

    Development: The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency said on 29 June that Brazil had to allow its nuclear facilities to be inspected by the IAEA. By refusing Brazil was breaching the IAEA rules designed to ensure that nuclear power was used only for peaceful ends.

    Significance: The demand by the director general of the IAEA, Mohamed El Baradei, for unfettered and full inspection of its facilities increases the pressure on the government. The government argued that its decision to ban IAEA inspectors from bits of its research station at Resende, Rio de Janeiro, was to preserve the commercial confidentiality of its proprietary centrifuge technology. The Brazilians say that they have spent US$1bn developing their own centrifuge to enrich uranium and they do not want their technology stolen by US inspectors. Brazil says that it wants to export its low-cost efficient centrifuge to other countries.

    El Baradei says, essentially, that the government is talking nonsense. He said that the IAEA had inspected other facilities without technological secrets leaking. He added that only by inspecting the centrifuge could the IAEA certify that Brazil was declaring all its enriched uranium.

  • Latest data

    12 July 2010 Hits: 107

    ARGENTINA: The IMF has delayed a US$728m loan payment to Argentina after it failed to approve the third review of its current agreement. Approval is now not expected until September, when the fourth review is scheduled to take place.

    ARGENTINA: The rate of inflation rose 0.5% in July from the previous month according to the state statistics department, Indec. Retail prices rose 3.8% over the first seven months of 2004.

    COLOMBIA: Exports rose 12.6% year-on-year to US$5.92bn in the January-May period helped by the high price of oil and other commodities. Over the same period, imports rose 12.2% to US$5.90bn, leaving Colombia with a surplus of US$15.8m in the first five months of the year against a deficit of US$8.1m in the same period of 2003.

    COSTA RICA: Inflation has reached 7.64% for the first seven months of 2004, according to the National Institute of Statistics (INEC).

    PERU: Tourism increased by 23.4% in July compared to the same period in 2003. The increase in the number of arrivals (88,452 for the month) is attributed to the Copa América football tournament, which Peru hosted from 6 July to 25 July.

    URUGUAY: The rate of unemployment stood at 13.1% in the second quarter. This is 0.7 percentage points below its level at the end of the first quarter.

  • COSTA RICA: Quits Iraq war coalition

    12 July 2010 Hits: 238

    Development: On 9 September Roberto Tovar, Costa Rica's foreign minister, asked the US to remove his country's name from the list of nations backing the occupation coalition in Iraq.

    Significance: The request followed a decision by Sala IV (the country's constitutional court) that described as unconstitutional the moral support given by the government of President Abel Pacheco to the US for its invasion of Iraq. The court's decision is another blow to the government that has been rocked by a series of ministerial resignations over the past week.

    Sala IV's decision, announced on 8 September, was unanimous, stressing that Pacheco's support 'went against the Constitution, the Principal of Perpetual, Active and Non-Armed Neutrality [of Costa Rica], international law, and the United Nations system'. Costa Rica is one of a handful of countries that has no standing army.

    The court's ruling came despite the fact that both Pacheco and Tovar have repeatedly argued that Costa Rica's support was not for the invasion of Iraq, but for the US's so-called 'war on terrorism'.

  • BRAZIL: Brazil tumbles down FDI ranking

    12 July 2010 Hits: 245
    Development: A study by A. T. Kearney, a management consultancy published on 12 October puts Brazil in 17th place in the global ranking of foreign direct investment destinations.

    Significance: According to the survey, which polled executives from the 1,000 biggest global conglomerates, Brazil is still perceived as a country of high investment risk. Although the study praised the 'gigantic efforts' made by the government to guarantee macroeconomic stability, it reveals investors are still 'very preoccupied' with the Brazilian market regulations.

    This was the worst result for Brazil since A. T. Kearney started its survey in 1998. Last year Brazil was in ninth place. According to the analysis, in 2003 FDI fell 39% to US$10.1bn. In 2002, FDI reached US$16.6bn.

    Latin America did not rank well in the survey. The next best Latin American positioned country is Mexico, which fell from third place in 2003 to the twenty-second position in this year's survey. According to A. T. Kearney the next few years will show a migration of resources to Asia, mainly China and India, which scored first and third place respectively.

  • Latest data

    12 July 2010 Hits: 152

    ARGENTINA: The number of Argentines between the age of 15 and 29 living in poverty rose to 59% in 2003 from 31% in 1999.

    DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Tax collections for October were RD$4.6 billion (US$18m). This is RD$933.5m more than the tax take in October 2003. The increase has been attributed to the tax reform passed by congress in September.

    PERU: GDP increased by 4.52% year-on-year in September driven by fishing and gas production, especially increasing demand from China for Peru's farm produce, fishmeal and metals. Fishing expanded 29.8%. Hydrocarbons increased by 23.6%. GDP expanded 4.4% in the first three quarters.

  • HAITI: Minustah evicts rebels from Aristide's house

    12 July 2010 Hits: 410

    Development: Soldiers from the UN stabilisation mission, Minustah, drove out some 50 Haitian rebels from the house of former President Jean-Bertrand Aristide in the suburb of Tabarre in Port-au-Prince on 17 December. The rebels, who participated in the uprising that removed Aristide from power in February, had seized the house and threatened to use its grounds to train a new army.

    Significance: Minustah had not challenged the rebel soldiers since it took over peacekeeping duties in Haiti despite the fact that it was charged with disarming them. The rebels offered no resistance. This was not the case elsewhere in the country. 

    On 18 December, Minustah soldiers came under fire from rebel former soldiers and armed residents in the southwestern town of Petit Goave. The Minustah soldiers were attempting to take control of a police station in Petit Goave, which has been in the hands of rebels since Aristide was driven from power. The Minustah soldiers were eventually forced to retreat. Rebel soldiers tried to seize control of a police station in the southern town of Miragoane on 18 December but they were repelled by the Haitian police.

  • CHILE: PS picks new president

    12 July 2010 Hits: 242

    Development: On 30 January the Partido Socialista (PS), one of the four parties in the ruling Concertación coalition, elected senator Ricardo Núñez as party president.

    Significance: Núñez used his first speech as president to call for the party to rally around the PS candidate for the presidency, Michelle Bachelet. Bachelet, who is also supported by another of the governing parties, the Partido por la Democracia, will run against Soledad Alvear, of the Democráta Cristiano party, for the Concertación nomination. Whoever wins will face Joaquí­n Laví­n, the rightwing Alianza por Chile candidate, in the presidential elections set for 14 December 2005.

    On taking up his appointment Núñez denied that his election was indicative of party discontent at the leadership of his predecessor, Gonzalo Martner, but his explanation that the party was suffering from a "strictly statutory problem" seemed weak. Núñez won by 274 votes to 104 for Martner. The new party leadership includes as vice-presidents Isabel Allende, daughter of Salvador, and Juan Pablo Letelier, son of Orlando, the former Chilean foreign minister assassinated by Pinochet's secret police in Washington D.C. Núñez reaffirmed his party's intention to push hard for an open primary between Bachelet and Alvear. Bachelet, a long way ahead of her rival in the opinion polls, would probably win in a popular vote. However, the Concertación has no formal selection process and a closed meeting of leaders within the coalition would be more likely to favour Alvear.

    Meanwhile, also on 30 January, Laví­n attacked both leftwing candidates, describing them as "more of the same". Bachelet and Alvear were ministers in President Lagos's administration until October 2004, holding the portfolios of defence and foreign affairs respectively. Laví­n criticised the current government's record on delinquency, lack of housing, drug-trafficking, tax rises and unemployment, which remains stubbornly high (at an average of 8.8% in 2004) despite the generally healthy state of the economy. The difficulty for Laví­n, however, is that Lagos's government, and the president himself, retains a high level of popularity; "more of the same" is probably an appealing notion.

  • Brazil; Colombia; Costa Rica; Ecuador; Mexico; Peru

    12 July 2010 Hits: 105

    BRAZIL:  The civil construction sector generated 64,600 new jobs in 2004, it was reported on March 2, 2005.

    BRAZIL: The Sao Paulo Stock Exchange received R$3.7bn (US$1.4bn) in February, the highest monthly foreign investment on record.

    BRAZIL: Expenses on travel abroad increased 51% in January when compared with the same period last year, reaching US$296 million. 

    BRAZIL: FDI in January reached US$1.2bn, a 22.7% increase in comparison to January 2004. 

    COLOMBIA: Colombian industrial output expanded 4.87% year-on-year in 2004, the national statistics institute DANE said on March 2, 2005. The figure does not include the coffee processing industry.

    COLOMBIA: Colombia's external public debt grew 5.38% to US$25.5bn as of November 2004 compared to US$24.2bn in November 2003, the central bank said.

    COSTA RICA: In the first two months of the year, inflation reached 3.08%, according to the national institute for statistics.

    COSTA RICA: The consumer price index (CPI) of Costa Rica grew 1.09% month-on-month in February 2005, the national statistics institute INEC said on March 2, 2005.

    ECUADOR: Unemployment rate rose to 11.5% in January from 9.9% in December, the central bank said on Wednesday.

    MEXICO: Mexico posted a fiscal surplus of M$1.2bn (US$108.3m) for January 2005, much lower than the fiscal surplus of M$25.9bn (US$2.34bn) for January 2004, the finance minister, Francisco Gil Dí­az, said on March 2.

    MEXICO: President Vicente Fox reported that in February 12.55 million formal jobs were registered in the Mexican Social Security Institute (IMSS), "the highest figure in the country's history."

    PERU: The tax revenue in February 2005 totalled P$1.927bn (US$590.8m), up 6.9% from the same month of 2004; and imports totalled US$838m, an increase of 23.7% year-on-year the national tax administration Sunat said on March 2, 2005

  • Argentina; Brazil; Chile; Mexico; Venezuela

    12 July 2010 Hits: 510

    ARGENTINA: The price of basic food that a typical family in Argentina would eat has risen by 3% last March compared with February and by 8.1% compared with March 2004, official sources indicate.

    BRAZIL: Varig, the troubled Brazilian national carrier, has announced losses of R$870m (US$328m) in 2004. The losses are, however, much smaller than the R$1.83bn (US$703m) registered in 2003. 

    CHILE: On 7 April the Central Bank of Chile decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points, to 3%.

    CHILE: Chile's trade surplus reached US$2,470m in the first term of this year, a figure slightly lower than the same period in 2004, informed the central bank.

    MEXICO: Remittances from Mexicans rose by 25.17% during the first two months of the year compared with the same period of 2004, official sources announced on 7 April.

    VENEZUELA: Car sales during the first quarter of the year reached 42.642 units, 82% more than in the same period in 2004, the automotive board of Venezuela announced on 7 April

  • DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Army deports hundreds of Haitians

    12 July 2010 Hits: 229

    Development: The Dominican army repatriated at least 500 Haitians on 13 May four days after a Dominican man was allegedly murdered by Haitians in the north-eastern town of Hatillo Palma de Montecristi.

    Significance: Although the government of President Leonel Fernández has stepped up the repatriation of illegal immigrants from Haiti this is the largest single round up since Fernández came to office in August last year. The Dominican senate unanimously passed a resolution calling for the 'cleansing and deportation' of illegal Haitian immigrants last December. 

    The army has deported Haitians in the past in the wake of crimes perpetrated by Haitians. The murder of the Dominican man, who died from machete wounds, triggered a riot, with Dominicans torching shacks in a slum populated by Haitians. The army claims that it only rounded up illegal migrants but human rights groups insist that it acted indiscriminately, sending back Dominicans of Haitian descent.

    The head of the Jesuit Service for Refugees and Migrants, Regino Martí­nez, said that more than 600 people were deported including boys, girls and pregnant women. “The worst is that many Dominicans of Haitian descent and Haitians who have legal status were included," he said. NGOs estimate that there may be as many as 500,000 Haitians living illegally in the Dominican Republic. Many have been there for a long time: large-scale migration began in the 1960s, when Haitian cane cutters flocked to Dominican sugar plantations, providing a steady flow of cheap labour.

  • ARGENTINA: Confusion over Duhalde and Kirchner talks

    12 July 2010 Hits: 296

    Development: Argentina's two leading dailies, La Nación and Clarí­n, arrived at two different conclusions from the same source material in their lead articles on the Duhalde-Kirchner saga in their 20 June editions. La Nación runs with the headline “Duhalde: I am not negotiating any agreement with the president"; Clarí­n, “Duhalde confirmed that an agreement within the PJ is being negotiated".

    Significance: The Argentine media has put a gloss on platitudes uttered by President Néstor Kirchner and former president Eduardo Duhalde for months to try and stir up interest in the legislative elections in Buenos Aires province, which is billed as a clash of wills between the two PJ strongmen and a struggle for influence. The rivalry in Buenos Aires province is best illustrated by the contest for the first seat in the federal senate. Kirchner's wife, Cristina Fernández, wants it, but so does Hilda 'Chiche' González, Duhalde's wife.

    Neither of the seemingly contradictory headings is inaccurate. La Nación reports an interview with Duhalde in the lobby of the Excelsior hotel, where the Mercosur summit is being held in Asunción . It quotes Duhalde as saying “I have to say it over and over again because you don't believe me. I am not negotiating a deal with President Kirchner in the style that the media is reporting." He also said that the PJ could head into the legislative elections in Buenos Aires province on 23 October with two separate lists and that he would support his wife if she decided to run. “In 2003 there were three Peronist lists. If there are two now, that would be progress," he told La Nación.

    Clarí­n chose to pick up on Duhalde's comment that “talks are going on" and that there are “still two weeks to reach a deal on the PJ lists". When pushed about the talks Duhalde said that there are many very important figures in the PJ, such as the party president, José Marí­a Dí­az Bancalari, and the secretary general, Juan José Alvarez, who are in talks. Last night the state-run news agency Télam reported Duhalde as saying that he had not met Kirchner for two months.

  • MEXICO: Fox defends Marta

    12 July 2010 Hits: 294

    Development: On 21 July President Vicente Fox accused legislators in the Permanent Commission of falsifying information over the expenditure of the first lady, Marta Sahagún. 

    Significance: On 20 July the commission, which sits in lieu of congress during recess, recommended that the chamber of deputies strike the word “spouse" from the budget allocating money for the presidency's living expenses. The legislators claimed that Sahagún's expenses had shot up over the past year. The first lady is widely disliked by Mexico's political classes for her supposed abuse of her position.

    The president's office released a statement saying: “The presidency of the republic rejects as calumny, falsehood and lacking in truth the suggestion put forward by some media sources that the President and his wife 'have spend excessively on personal items.'" The statement went on to argue that this administration had been far more frugal than any previous one, particularly as regards clothing, one of the charges levelled against Sahagún. 

    In 2001 the office of the Mexican Presidency had a budget of M$248,900 (US$23,500) to spend on clothing for official visits and receptions. By 2004 this budget had reached M$1.4m (US$132,000). The figures do not divulge how much was spent by the president and how much by his wife.

    Meanwhile, conscious that time is fast running out for his presidency, Fox promised, on 21 July, to leave office “without a single national crisis". It appears the president is scrabbling around for something to redeem a period in office widely regarded as ineffectual and disappointing. On the same day a Mexican graduate, Rodrigo Contreras, announced the forthcoming publication of a book on the “achievements" of President Fox. All the pages will be blank.

  • COLOMBIA: More paramilitary demobilisations

    12 July 2010 Hits: 210

    Development: On 23 August 150 paramilitaries belonging to the Bloque Pací­fico demobilised.

    Significance: The demobilisation of the Héroes de Chocó faction of the 500-strong Bloque Pací­fico took place in the department of Chocó near the border with Panama. The Bloque Pací­fico is led by Francisco Javier Zuluaga (alias Gordo Lindo), who is also one of the chief negotiators for the Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) umbrella paramilitary organisation in the current peace process with the government.

    Zuluaga's status both within the Bloque Pací­fico and the AUC is the matter of much controversy. Due to his allegedly extensive links to the illegal narcotics trade, Zuluaga is often used as evidence by critics of the peace process that known drug lords are buying their way into the AUC in order to benefit from the legal framework for the demobilisations which will most likely spare them from prosecution. The US issued a request for Zuluaga's extradition for drug smuggling in 1999.

  • REGION: Venezuelans step up pressure on Posada Carriles

    12 July 2010 Hits: 270

    Development: The Venezuelan embassy in Washington issued a statement on 26 September calling for Luis Posada Carriles to be extradited to Caracas from the US and promising that he would be "tried not tortured".

    Significance: The Posada Carriles case will have a major bearing on US-Venezuelan relations and should be decided within the next month. The Venezuelans want to try Posada Carriles, a 77 year-old anti-Castro activist, for his part in bringing down a Cubana airliner which killed 76 people in 1976. Posada Carriles has asked for asylum in the US, though he arrived in the US illegally after escaping from a Venezuelan jail in 1985.

    It appears that the US government is swinging behind the Venezuelan plea for Posada Carriles to be handed over. The US Department of Homeland Security is now trying to demolish the contention of Posada Carriles's lawyers that he will be tortured if he is returned to Caracas. At a hearing on 26 September, the judge, William Lee Abbott, gave Homeland Security two more weeks to gather evidence.

    The key defence witness for Posada Carriles was Joaquí­n Chaffardet, a Venezuelan lawyer. He claimed that three "political" prisoners in Venezuela, accused of blowing up Danilo Anderson, a prosecutor investigating the background to the attempted coup against President Hugo Chávez in 2002, had been tortured, notably by injecting iodine into their penises.

    Significantly, the Venezuelan statement did not deal with this particular charge on 26 September but made wild accusations about the scale of torture perpetrated on prisoners at US bases in Guantánamo and Abu Ghraib. Judge Abbott has made it clear that he will not allow Posada Carriles to be extradited to face possible torture.

  • BRAZIL: Lula starts fight back

    12 July 2010 Hits: 187

    Development: On 31 October President Lula da Silva instructed his government to go on the offensive against opposition claims of corruption.

    Significance: Lula has sensed an opportunity to draw a line under a six-month period in which his government has devoted most of its energies to repelling a series of corruption scandals. His opportunity was created, ironically, by another allegation: a 29 October report in the weekly magazine Veja claiming that Lula received funding from the Cuban government for his 2002 election campaign.

    The opposition jumped on the Veja story, confident that it finally had a scandal which would get Lula; hitherto the allegations have tainted almost everyone in his government but the president has remained untouched. Several opposition legislators even talked about impeaching Lula and suggested that he may not finish his term in office.

    The Veja story is too flimsy to achieve this. Pro-government legislators pointed out that the magazine offers no physical evidence of the money transfer from Cuba to Lula. They have also jumped on disparities in the testimonies of Veja's two witnesses to the payment: both agree the money was transported to Brasí­lia in cases of whisky and rum but they don't concur over the amount. One claimed Lula's Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) received US$3m from Cuba; the other put the figure at US$1.4m.

    The story's credibility is also diminished by the fact that Veja has already tried, and failed, to expose irregularities in Lula's campaign for the last presidential election. In April the magazine, drawing on secret police sources, reported the PT had received US$5m from the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). This story died, eventually, because of a lack of evidence. As Arlindo Chinaglia, the head of the PT in the chamber of deputies put it, "All it needs now is for the opposition to say the PT took money from [Osama] bin Laden."
    The president of the PT, Ricardo Berzoini, said on 31 October that the party had decided to take legal action against 'Veja' for libel. Lula doesn't want the response to stop there, however. After a meeting between Lula and his inner circle the government came out fighting its corner in congress.

    The opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) called for Lula's impeachment and demanded that his finance minister, Antonio Palocci, be interrogated over the Cuban financing as part of the current investigation into illegal gambling. The government not only said it was absurd that this investigation be extended to include every accusation of corruption against the government but also went on the offensive by reviving the Cayman Dossier. This dossier holds allegations that PSDB ministers held bank accounts in the Cayman Islands during the presidency of Fernando Henrique Cardoso, Lula's predecessor.

    The government is still not out of the woods. Congressional investigations and impeachment hearings against members of the PT and the government - most notably Lula's former chief-of-staff José Dirceu - still loom. However, even before the 'Veja' story broke there were already signs that Lula may be over the worst: an opinion poll published by Ibope in mid-October showed his approval rating is on the rebound. Confidence in Lula rose three percentage points in October to 46% from 43% in September.

    More importantly, the economy is beginning to create a feel good factor. The Fundação Getúlio Vargas published its first consumer confidence index on 31 October. This showed a 1.5% jump compared with September. The direction of the index is not absolutely certain: the proportion of people expecting things to improve rose from 24% to 28% while the percentage who feared that things would get worse fell from 21% to 16%.

    The economy is likely to do even better in 2006, as local interest rates fall and the government's robust fiscal position allows it to spend more money. This combination, of political and economic momentum, is likely to tempt Lula to run for, and win, re-election.

  • BOLIVIA: New poll puts Evo five points ahead

    12 July 2010 Hits: 307

    Development: A new poll, published on 4 December, puts the leftwing candidate Evo Morales five points ahead of the centre right candidate, Jorge Quiroga.

    Significance: The large poll (3,248 respondents) by Ipsos Captura shows Morales's vote rising to 32.8% while Quiroga's has fallen to 27.7%. The other right wing candidate, Samuel Doria Medina, is now down to below 10% of the vote. The pollis the third in a series: the first was taken at the beginning of October; the second at the end of October and the third between 22 and 27 November. The other significant aspect of the poll is the rise in the "don't knows": these are up from 9% at the beginning of October to 13% now.

    Another interesting finding from the poll is that 46% of Bolivians now believe Morales will win, while only 32% believe that of Quiroga.

    Opinion polls in Bolivian are blunt instruments: they were a poor guide to what actually happened in the last presidential election in 2002, underestimating Morales and wildly overestimating a rightwing candidate, Manfred Reyes Villa. The polls were wrong, in both cases, by about 10 points in 2002: if they are out by as much this time, Morales is very close to winning the presidency without having to go to a congressional election.

    The Ipsos Captura poll is heavily urban, covering the nine departmental capitals and 37 other cities. Morales's support is heaviest in rural areas. Nevertheless the pollsters say that their survey is 95% accurate with a 2% margin of error.

  • COLOMBIA: Parties pledge paramilitary purge

    12 July 2010 Hits: 268

    Development: The main political parties have vowed to cut any links to paramilitary organisations ahead of this year's legislative elections.

    Significance: There is a widespread fear in Colombia that paramilitaries whose slates are being wiped clean by the peace process with the government are going to infiltrate the political system. The Autodefensas Unidas de Colombia (AUC) has already boasted that it controls 35% of legislators in congress, and the organisation has made it clear that it wants to transform itself from a paramilitary into a political force.

    A couple of stories in the media over the weekend of 14-15 January have demonstrated the increased concern over paramilitary participation. According to a story in the El Tiempo daily, Gina Parody, a legislator who supports President Alvaro Uribe, refused an invitation to run as senator for the pro-Uribe Partido U until it removed three legislators from its party list who have links to the paramilitaries: Dieb Maloof, Habib Merheg, and a third legislator whose name has not emerged.

    Another story in El Tiempo revealed that President Uribe himself has ordered an investigation into Juan Manual López Cabrales (from the Partido Liberal, PL) and Miguel de la Espriella (an Uribista) after he get wind of a row between the two in which they accused each other of being allied to paramilitaries. Meanwhile, it has also emerged that a court in the US has linked another legislator from the PL, Vicente Blel from Cartagena, to the AUC.

    The PL's president, Cesar Gaviria, vowed on 14 January to purge his party list of any paramilitary connections, while the Partido Conservador, Colombia's other traditional party, has also said it will look into its own candidates. President Uribe seems at pains to eliminate all links to the AUC from his support for fear that age-old rumours about his paramilitary connections will come back to haunt him or his allies come election day.

  • VENEZUELA: Referendum, if opposition withdraws?

    12 July 2010 Hits: 334

    Development: On 19 February President Hugo Chávez said that if the opposition did not present any candidates for the presidential elections in December he would hold a referendum on his rule.

    Significance: The referendum would include an article on presidential re-election; at present the constitution only allows two successive terms, but Chávez wishes to allow indefinite re-election "like Tony Blair". Chávez also used his weekly broadcast Alo, Presidente! to emphasise the only real opposition to his re-election in December is the US.

    Chávez repeated his line that the US will try one of two different tacks to unseat him in December. The first would be to back an opposition candidate to such an extent that he starts to get close to Chávez , allowing this candidate to cry fraud when Chávez wins. The second would be to order the opposition to withdraw from the elections, allowing them to say they are not democratic because there are no opponents. In this case, Chávez , said he would hold a referendum on presidential re-election.

    The government is also mobilising a campaign to get 10m votes cast in December. In part, this seems to be in response to the 75% abstention rate in the legislative elections in December, when even committed chavistas stayed away from the polls following the withdrawal of the opposition. Given that Chávez is highly likely to win in December, the 10m target gives his supporters something to aim for. It seems a tall order; as the president of polling firm Consultores 21, Luis Christiansen, pointed out, if 80% of the electorate votes, Chavez would need 75% of that vote to get his 10m.

    In the same broadcast, Chavez once again threatened to cut off oil supplies to the US and said he had taken measures to enable this.

  • VENEZUELA: Government puts off threat to ban US flights

    12 July 2010 Hits: 233

    Development: On 23 March Venezuela reached an agreement with the US not to restrict or ban flights by US airlines, the US ambassador to Caracas, William Brownfield, said.

    Significance: The agreement does not end the dispute between Venezuela and the US over aviation rights; it merely provides some breathing space for the two governments to hold negotiations. Venezuela had threatened in February to restrict flights by American Airlines, Continental Airlines and Delta Air Lines from 30 March unless the US Federal Aviation Administration agreed to remove limits on Venezuelan airlines flying to US airports.

    Brownfield said that the FAA would send a technical team to Venezuela at the weekend and that the team would not leave until a solution to the dispute had been found.