Latinnews Archive
Andean Group - 17 May 1985
Bolivian elections in doubt againPAZ ESTENSSORO OVERTAKES BANZER
The future of Bolivia's elections scheduled for 14 July is still in the balance. Edgar Oblitas Fernandez, president of the electoral court (CNE), says that 30% of the electorate at best will still be unregistered by the 13 June deadline. (The previous roll was destroyed in the 1980 coup.) Fernandez complains that the court is starved of funds (WR-85-11) and has asked aloud if Bolivia's current political climate is too unstable for elections.
In early May the dollar black market rate was climbing again and topped 230,000 pesos -- and banks have closed their doors due to a shortage of paper money (WR-85-18) Amid rumours of another austerity package, labour is again trying to flex its political muscle, despite the collapse of the March general strike. The unions are trying to scare the private sector and the Central Obrera Boliviana (COB) has demanded state intervention of the Totoral and South American Placers mining companies. Political analysts believe that this new wave of social unrest will climax in the next few weeks.
To make matters worse for the private sector and the right, the candidate tipped to win the elections, General Hugo Banzer Suarez, has slipped to second place in the polls. The new favourite is wily septuagenarian Victor Paz Estenssoro, leader of the Movimiento Nacionalista Revolucionario (MNR-H). Paz has emerged as a safe and healthy alternative to Banzer in the absence of a strong centre-left coalition such as the once-formidable ruling Unidad Democratica Popular (UDP).
Now Banzer says he is not prepared to lose, and threatens to declare himself President in his eastern lowland stronghold of Santa Cruz. The hard-line military are strongly rumoured to be planning yet another coup, despite repeated failures, including last year's kidnapping of President Hernan Siles.
The main election candidates are=
* Victor Paz Estenssoro, 77, former President (1952-56, 1960-64). His age prompted the choice of a 'younger' running mate, congress president Julio Garret Ayllon, 60 -- although schoolmates say he is really 68. Garret has been in politics since the '40s as a member of the now defunct marxist Partido de Izquierda Revolucionaria (PIR). He was a minister in general Rene Barrientos' cabinet (1964-69), and Hugo Banzer's ambassador to Moscow.
* Hugo Banzer, 57, the right-wing Accion Democratica Nacionalista (ADN) candidate and previous frontrunner, was President from 1971 -78. Banzer handpicked US-educated Eudoro Galindo, 43, from his coterie of brusque young men as his running mate (SR-85-01). Galindo, who resembles EI Salvador's Roberto D'Aubuisson, also acts as tough. He fought in Vietnam, is a karate expert and three times national fencing champion. An ADN government would hit both the left and the unions hard.
* Jaime Paz Zamora, 43, the candidate of the now divided Movimiento de la Izquierda Revolucionaria (MIR), is hoping for third place. His chances were threatened at the end of April when two MNR-H lawyers asked the supreme court to annul his candidature as an outgoing Vice-President. Paz Zamora struck a deal with congress last year to secure his candidature,
* Roberto Jordan Pando, 55, is the ruling MNR-I party candidate. His recent nomination triggered a walkout at the party convention by factions who accused President Siles of stage-managing the event. The split has almost certainly damaged the party's chances of coming third.
The left has not decided whether to present a common front -- a Frente del Pueblo Unido under peasant leader Genaro Flores -- or let each party make smaller alliances.
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