Latinnews Archive
Latin American Weekly Report - 26 August 1983
ANDEAN AGRICULTURE: Potato shortage forecast for 1984
Farmers throughout the Peruvian and Brazilian altiplano are waiting to see if in October rains will put an end to the worst drought in living memory. By October, too, they will know -- even if it does rain -- the size of the shortfall in the supply of seed potatoes for next year's sowings. The potato is the region's staple agricultural product.
Foreign disaster-relief specialists working in the Puno area of southern Peru say they are pessimistic, both about weather prospects and about the availability of seed potatoes. They say meteorological data shows that droughts in the region tend to last several years in succession, and they also expect the warm El Nino sea current -- the cause of this year's freak conditions -- to persist into 1984. At the same time they say this year's potato failure means there will be an acute shortage of seed potatoes, and that the gap between supply and demand cannot be bridged by imports since European and US varieties will not grow at altitudes ranging between 3,500-5,000 metres above sea level.
There has been no rain on the altiplano since hail storms last October washed away recently planted crops. No rain fell at all during the usual wet season between November and March. The main affected area stretches in a belt from central Peru southwards as far as the southern tip of Bolivia. USAID figures -- the most reliable available -- suggest that in southern Peru as much as 30,000 square miles were 'severely hit', mostly in Puno department. In Bolivia USAID puts 70,000 square miles (16% of the country's total surface area) in this category.
The drought has had a catastrophic effect on harvests this year in the altiplano. According to Peruvian officials 70% of all crops harvested were lost in Puno, while Bolivian church organisations put the loss rate even higher -- at close to 80% -- in the departments of La Paz, Oruro and north of Potosi. USAID puts the value of agricultural and livestock losses at US$151.8m for Peru and US$417.2m for Bolivia while lost agricultural production will bring Peru's GDP this year down by 0.8% and Bolivia's by 5.6%.
Up to now farmers have staved off hunger by consuming the leftovers from last year's ample potato crop. Now, however, food is running out and farmers are beginning to migrate in unprecedented numbers. In Arequipa, for example, municipal officials report a massive influx of punenos into the city's shantytowns, and the same is happening in La Paz and Potosi, where the government and the church have set up soup kitchens to feed new migrants.
Prices of basic agricultural products -- potatoes, barley and quinua -- have increased sharply throughout the altiplano because of the shortage, and farmers are having to buy rather than sell. At Yunguyo, for example, on the frontier between Peru and Bolivia, potatoes cost 6,000 soles for a 24lb bag (US$1 = 1,731 soles), when at the same time last year the price was under 1,000 soles.
At the same time lack of fodder and the need for cash to buy food is forcing livestock farmers to sell their animals in spite of rock-bottom prices. A seven-year-old bull, for example, last year would have fetched 200,000 soles, but today it is going for 60,000 (in the meantime inflation has been over 100%). Similarly, sheep would have gone for 20,000 soles each, but are now fetching 7,500 soles. Most farmers have sold the majority of their animals before they became so thin as to be valueless.
The result of the drought, in the words of a USAID economist, has been 'a disastrous de-capitalisation of peasant agriculture,' which, he adds, 'will take years to overcome.' According to this source the worst hit are campesinos living at the highest altitudes, whose production is mostly livestock.
Because of lack of cash, neither the Bolivian nor the Peruvian governments have so far done much to mount emergency relief programmes for drought victims -- help has been limited to the distribution of food donated by foreign governments. These, however, are 'a drop in the ocean,' says a development official in La Paz; 'and no adequate channels exist for the distribution of aid.'
The situation is made worse by severe cutbacks in investment spending, which are holding back vital irrigation projects and preventing the creation of new jobs to absorb the unemployed and displaced. According to a recently-published report from CEDES (a Lima-based research group with an office in Puno) spending cuts have reduced Puno's investment budget -- already one of Peru's smallest -- by more than 50%: this money could have done much to help revive the drought-stricken local economy.
Crop losses due to drought
According to estimates produced by USAID up to 30 June, Peru has already lost some 578,800 tonnes of basic crops worth US$120.8m, to the drought, and Bolivia, 1.1m tonnes worth US$277.7m. These figures do not include US$31m worth of livestock losses in Peru and US$139.5m in Bolivia. Details of the losses crop by crop (percentage of national production shown in brackets):
Peru: Potatoes, 491,000t, US$94.3m (27%); maize, 24,000t, US$5.5m (6%); olluco, 16,500t, US$3.8m (48%); barley 34,000t, US$4.7m (26%); wheat, 5,500t, US$1m; other, US$8.5m.
Bolivia: Potatoes, 587,378t, US$180.5m (66%); maize, 112,476t, US$19.4m (25%); quinua, 1,065t, US$400,000 (7%); barley, 33,286t, US$6.3m (54%); wheat, 28,706t, US$11.1m (44%); rice, 25,095t, US$6.3m (29%); cassava, 91,932t, US$17m (34%); vegetables and fruit, 147,918t, US$28.7m (40%); other, 78,368t, US$8m.
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