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Weekly Report - 04 September 2025 (WR-25-35)

BRAZIL: Government’s 2026 budget proposal raises doubts

The government of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva submitted its proposed 2026 budget legislation (PLOA) to congress on 29 August. In 2025 the government aimed for a zero primary deficit, but in 2026 the target will be a primary surplus equivalent to 0.25% of GDP. Given that Brazil will hold presidential and congressional elections next year, it is doubtful that the Lula administration will prioritise fiscal restraint. If Lula announces a re-election bid, he would likely need to boost his popularity by investing more in social programmes and infrastructure projects rather than reducing spending and making cuts to public services.

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