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Security & Strategic Review - November 2012 (ISSN 1741-4202)

MEXICO-US: Mixed reactions to cannabis votes

The Mexican reaction to the votes in three US states on propositions to legalise cannabis has been varied, with some officials saying that the results will impact policymaking while others tried to work out what the effect would be on Mexico’s role as the main supplier of cannabis to the US.

Former interior minister Alejandro Poiré (the incumbent the time of the votes) said that the changes in the US make necessary a global debate on the legal status of marijuana in order to establish a “coherent stance”. The now former president, Felipe Calderón (2006-2012) said it demanded a ”fundamental rethink of drug policies across the hemisphere”. Luis Videgaray, the chief coordinator of President Enrique Peña Nieto’s transition team (and now finance minister), expressed “concerns” about the outcome.

The analyst Alejandro Hope, co-author of a study published by the Instituto Mexicano para la Competitividad (IMCO), calculated that if legalisation were approved in Oregon, Washington and Colorado, the earnings of Mexican traffickers from marijuana could shrink by 30%. Hope later qualified this, saying that consequences for Mexico would depend on how the federal government in the US reacted to the outcome of the votes. Among the options he lists are seeking the repeal of legalisation laws in the courts and increasing federal anti-drugs operations in the legalising states.

As it turned out, broad legalisation was approved only in Washington and Colorado - decriminalisation of medical marijuana was approved in Massachusetts and voters in Montana approved the tightening of restrictions on medical marijuana.

Raymond Yans, head of the International Narcotics Control Board (INCB), said, “Legalisation of cannabis within these states would send wrong and confusing signals to youth and society in general, giving the false impression that drug abuse might be considered normal and even, most disturbingly, safe. Such a development could result in the expansion of drug abuse [...] The cannabis on the illicit market today is much more dangerous than that seen in the 60s and 70s”. He added that he expected US Attorney General Eric Holder to “take all the necessary measures” to keep cannabis illegal throughout the country. The Justice Department has limited its reaction to stating that its policies had not changed.

Voters' verdicts

Approved

Colorado: legalising marijuana for over-21s, regulating and taxing it like alcohol and tobacco.

Washington: easing restrictions on production sale and use of marijuana, imposing 25% excise tax on sales.

Massachusetts: decriminalising medical marijuana.

Montana: Tightening restrictions on cultivation, distribution and use of medical marijuana.

Defeated

▪  Oregon: Legalising cultivation and use; regulation of commercial growing and sale.

Arkansas: Legalising medical marijuana and sale through non-profit outlets.

Note: 18 states plus DC allow medical use of marijuana in some manner (14 of them allowing limited growing). Five of these states accept registry ID cards issued by other states.

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