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Weekly Report - 6 January 2011 (WR-11-01)

TRACKING TRENDS

CUBA | Let the reforms begin. “We are not talking about the New Year but the New Country," Cuba's daily Granma announced in late December as “2010 ended with a revolution within the Revolution". The architect of the sweeping economic reforms being set in motion is the economy and planning minister, Marino Murillo. He held forth for three days in nationally televised sessions before Cuba's national assembly, which was meeting for the second of its biannual sessions, in late December.
Murillo bluntly explained why the reforms, which include slashing 1.8m jobs from the bloated state workforce over the next five years, and expanding the private sector, were needed. “Improvisation, lack of discipline, disorder in budget management and poor analysis," he said, meant that Cuba would have to find US$1.6bn on imported products to satisfy internal demand each year unless improvements (and cutting subsidies) were made. He said the economy grew by 2.1% in 2010, slightly higher than the estimated 1.9%.
The government aims to cut 351,000 jobs in 2011 starting with the sugar, agriculture, construction, health and tourism ministries. On 4 January a commission, comprised of members of the Central de Trabajadores de Cuba (CTC), and high-ranking officials, presumably politburo members, began evaluating which workers “will become available" - a wonderful euphemism. The Partido Comunista de Cuba (PCC) will then stage its VI congress in April, the first since 1997, to approve the reforms.
In his address to the national assembly, President Raúl Castro applauded Murillo, who he referred to as “comrade general", a sign of respect rather than military rank, which Murillo lacks. “This is an economy where the efficient socialist enterprise will prevail. The measures we are applying, and all of the changes that are necessary for the modernisation of the economic model, are aimed at preserving socialism, strengthening it and making it truly irreversible," Castro said. “We can assure you that, this time, there will be no going back," he added.

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