LatinNews Daily - 11 August 2020

On 10 August Trinidad & Tobago’s Prime Minister Keith Rowley claimed victory for the ruling People’s National Movement (PNM) in a general election which took place the same day.

Analysis: 

With official results yet to be declared in the twin-island republic, Rowley proclaimed victory after citing initial results which gave the PNM 22 of the 41 seats in the House of Representatives, to 19 for the opposition United National Congress (UNC) led by former prime minister, Kamla Persad-Bissessar (2010-2015). Despite a challenging economic scenario, even before the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic, and a worsening security situation, the government’s handling of the pandemic, which has received international plaudits, no doubt served as a boost. The UNC, however, has sent mixed messages as to whether it accepts the results, suggesting these could be challenged. 

• The PNM, which appeals mostly to Trinidad & Tobago’s African-descended population (approximately 36% of the total, with 38% of East Indian descent, and 24% mixed), came to power in September 2015 following a 23-18 seat victory over the UNC. 
• One contentious aspect of the 2020 election was the absence of international electoral observers due to the pandemic. According to a government statement, Rowley invited the Caribbean Community (Caricom) and the Commonwealth to send observers, but as part of sanitary protocols, entrants to Trinidad & Tobago were required to quarantine for 14 days – a condition which Caricom and the Commonwealth rejected citing financial constraints.
• Rowley’s apparent success comes despite an unpromising economic outlook even before the pandemic, due to lower oil prices. The country’s economy may have recovered from the 6.3% contraction it suffered in 2016 on World Bank figures, but only to the extent that there was flat growth in 2019, after a further contraction of 2.3% in 2017 and 0.2% in 2018. The latest forecast by the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (Eclac) is for -7.1% growth in 2020.
• The government also failed to deliver on its promises to address crime. Official figures cited by the US Department of State’s Overseas Security Advisory Council (OSAC) tally 539 murders in 2019, up from 517 in 2018, 495 in 2017, 462 in 2016, and 420 in 2015.
• However, the PNM government has received widespread praise for its handling of the pandemic, moving swiftly to adopt containment measures, such as border closures, travel restrictions, school and university closures, and limits on social gatherings, which has boosted its approval rating. As of yesterday the country had just 281 confirmed Covid-19 cases and eight fatalities. The government began implementing a six-phase reopening plan from 10 May, although borders and schools remain closed. 
• Examples of international praise for the government’s response include a 10 April statement by the European Union Delegation commending the government for “the measured manner in which it has been proactively managing the challenges posed”. An overview published in May by Oxford University’s Covid-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) of which countries meet four of the World Health Organization’s six recommendations for relaxing physical distancing measures ranked Trinidad & Tobago first in the world for this. The latest (June) OxCGRT survey places Trinidad & Tobago ninth – still the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean.

Looking Ahead: According to the local media, the UNC conceded defeat at the party’s election headquarters last night. However, Persad-Bissessar is calling for a recount in three marginal constituencies, telling her supporters that “I am not giving any concessionary speech. I am not conceding”, and insisting that only once these are done “can we concede or claim victory”.

On 10 August the formal registration process began for political parties seeking to participate in Venezuela’s legislative elections on 6 December.

Analysis:

The majority of the country’s opposition parties will not be registering to participate in what they have described as an electoral farce, devoid of a level playing field, overseen by a national electoral council (CNE) firmly under the thumb of the de facto government led by Nicolás Maduro, and without international observers. But the Maduro government is trying to confer legitimacy on the elections by intervening in the main political parties and placing them under the control of internal dissidents prepared to take part in the elections. There were clashes outside the Caracas headquarters of one of these parties, Acción Democrática (AD), between rival supporters yesterday.

• A total of 27 opposition parties signed a statement on 2 August confirming plans to boycott the legislative elections on the grounds that they could not possibly be free and fair. The Maduro government, meanwhile, has used the supreme court (TSJ) to wrest control of three of the country’s four main political parties from hostile leaderships. They were replaced with pliant members of these parties who were expelled months earlier accused of having received bribes from the Maduro government.
• On 15 June the TSJ suspended the AD party leadership under Henry Ramos Allup, and appointed a new one led by Bernabé Gutiérrez. The TSJ ruled that the new party leadership was free to use the party’s symbols, logo, emblems, and colours as its own in a bid to give the impression that it was competing in the elections on its own volition.
• Supporters loyal to Ramos Allup descended on an AD party headquarters in western Caracas on 10 August after receiving reports that it had been taken over by armed 'colectivos', pro-government militias. They exchanged insults with groups supporting Gutiérrez, separated by a fence. At one stage a tear gas canister and firecrackers were set off.

Looking Ahead: The electoral registration process will last for 10 days, concluding on 19 August.

* Colombia and Israel have launched a new bilateral free trade agreement (FTA) during a videoconference between Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Colombia’s President Iván Duque. Under the FTA 99% of Colombia’s industrial exports and 97% of Colombia’s agriculture exports will enter Israel free from tariffs, and tariffs for the remaining exports will be gradually lifted over the next five years. The agreement also aims to attract Israeli investment to Colombia in areas such as irrigation, agriculture, artificial intelligence, and robotics. The Colombian government will open an iNNpulsa office (the government’s entrepreneurship and innovation agency) in Israel later this year to promote collaboration between the two countries in areas such as agriculture technology, cybersecurity, health technology, educational technology and financial technology. The office will also promote cooperation between the governments, academics and business sectors of both countries. In 2019, Colombia exported US$366m of goods to Israel, of which only 8% were non-mining goods such as coffee, flowers, and biscuits.

On 10 August, state-run schools in Manaus, the capital of Amazonas state, re-opened, the first public schools in Brazil to do so since the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic forced their closure five months ago.

Analysis:

Despite the uncontrolled coronavirus outbreak in Brazil, various sectors of the economy have been gradually reopening since May, and the country’s local authorities now face the dilemma of whether, and how to, reopen schools for in-person classes. With the United Nations (UN) warning of a “generational catastrophe” due to months of lost education on the one hand, and the World Health Organization (WHO) urging against reopening schools in areas where the pandemic is not under control on the other, the decision is fraught with difficulties, as exemplified by the situation in Manaus.

• Yesterday, 123 state-run secondary schools in Manaus opened for 55,000 students, with another 55,000 students due back today (11 August), as classrooms are filled to half-capacity. The Amazonas state government says it invested R$10m (US$1.8m) to equip schools for new sanitary protocols, which include taking students’ temperature, the installation of hand-sanitizing stations, and the use of personal protective equipment.
• Attendance was sparse, however, amid safety concerns, and some teachers protested the reopening of schools as premature. “Schools closed, lives saved” a banner hung in the east zone of Manaus read. Speaking to local news site G1, representatives from different teachers’ unions complained about deficient cleaning protocols and said it was impossible to enforce physical distancing amongst teenagers.
• Amazonas is the first state in Brazil to reopen its public schools, although for the moment schools outside of Manaus remain closed. The state’s private schools went back to in-person classes at the beginning of July.
• The overall Covid-19 infection and mortality rate in Amazonas is well above the national average, and the state suffered a collapse in its healthcare system in April, but the outbreak in the state has since slowed and appears to be controlled.

Looking Ahead: The return to in-person classes in other states remains uncertain, with recent judicial rulings suspending the reopening of private schools in Brasília and Rio de Janeiro, while the state government of São Paulo has delayed the reopening of public and private schools until 7 October. 

* Brazil’s economy minister, Paulo Guedes, has said that the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic has had practically “zero” effect on Brazil’s exports, thanks to sustained demand from Asian countries, notably China. Speaking during an event organised by the Frente Parlamentar Agropecuária (FPA) agribusiness bloc in Brazil's federal congress, Guedes said that Asian consumption had compensated a drop in demand in the US, Europe and Argentina, and allowed Brazilian exports to close the first six months of 2020 at a level almost unchanged from last year. China accounted for 34% of the US$121.3bn Brazil exported between January and July 2020. “It’s very clear for the entire world that Brazil has a strong advantage in the agribusiness sector”, Guedes said, noting that Brazil is turning to new markets in Asia and the Middle East.

* Panama’s chamber of commerce, industry & agriculture (CCIAP) has urged Costa Rican and Panamanian authorities to establish equal trade conditions and find a way to certify food producers in both countries “as quickly as possible”. The demands follow an announcement on 6 August by Costa Rica’s government that it had notified the World Trade Organization (WTO) of what it described as Panama’s decision to “block” the entry of animal products from 19 Costa Rican livestock producers on 10 July. For its part, Panama’s trade ministry issued a response on 8 August rejecting its neighbour’s claims of a block, stating instead that Costa Rican producers had failed to comply with food security requirements since these expired on 30 June despite continuous extensions since 2017. These producers have not been inspected for over six years, it added.

On 10 August Mexico’s former president, Felipe Calderón Hinojosa (2006-2012), accused President Andrés Manuel López Obrador of seeking to distract public attention from his government’s failings in the face of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic by accusing him of having led a narco-state.

Analysis:

Calderón’s accusations point to a growing political confrontation that looks set to dominate next year’s mid-term federal legislative elections. The growing public perception that the López Obrador administration has mishandled the pandemic has increased the chances that the ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party could lose its comfortable congressional majority in the polls. It provides ample ammunition for the political opposition to attack the government and Morena. López Obrador seems to be to pre-empting this by accusing Calderón and his previous Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) administration of colluding with organised crime. But in Calderón, Lopez Obrador appears to have found a formidable political foe.

• López Obrador commented on the suspected corruption that took place under Calderón in his morning press briefing yesterday. Recalling that Calderón’s former public security minister, Genaro García Luna (2006-2012), is currently facing trial in the US over his suspected links to Mexican drug trafficking organisations (DTOs), López Obrador said that it is now clear that Mexico became “a narco-state” under Calderón. The president went on to call for the links between the Calderón administration and organised crime to also be investigated by Mexican prosecutors.
• Calderón immediately to took to the airwaves to reject López Obrador’s accusations. In a radio interview he accused the López Obrador government of politically persecuting him by trying to link him to corruption even though he has not been implicated in any existing cases. Going on the attack, Calderón recalled that he decided to fight DTOs head on by launching the so-called ‘war on drugs’. He said that the “absurd” accusations are part of a strategy to distract attention from Mexico’s high Covid-19 death toll and to “hurt those that they know can defeat Morena in the 2021 elections”. 

Looking Ahead: While Calderón is in the process of registering his new México Libre party in order to take part in next year’s polls, the movement is already seen as the main electoral threat to Morena and López Obrador. 

* The Mexican government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador has proposed exporting natural gas to Asia, as a solution to surplus gas resulting from a conflict involving supposedly fraudulent contracts for the construction of gas pipelines. According to López Obrador, contracts for the construction of gas pipelines and the purchase of natural gas from the US were signed by previous governments with the aim of supplying up to 20 thermoelectric plants managed by Mexico's state-run electricity firm (CFE) – but the plants were never built. “We have to figure out what to do with the gas, we haven’t ruled out that we could get bids from companies so that they can treat the gas, freeze it and sell it to Asia”, López Obrador said in response to a question during his morning press briefing. 

On 10 August, Chile’s Interior Minister Víctor Pérez met with representatives from lorry drivers’ unions, some of whom are threatening strikes unless the government takes action to prevent arson attacks on lorries by Mapuche indigenous activists.

Analysis:

The government led by President Sebastián Piñera will be keen to avoid a strike which would exacerbate the already dire economic situation, but it must also walk a fine line to avoid further aggravating tensions with the Mapuche. After a flare-up in the long-running conflict earlier this month, the government is facing competing calls for a tougher crackdown on Mapuche insurgents from lorry drivers and local businesses on the one hand and appeals for dialogue from indigenous organisations and the United Nations on the other.

• The Confederación Nacional de Dueños de Camiones de Chile (CNDC) union released a statement after the meeting saying that it is the government’s responsibility to confront “extremist groups that burn lorries and shoot at drivers”, and warned that “if attacks on our drivers persist, it will not be possible to continue with the supply of goods” . Pressure from unions has increased since the death of Juan Barrios, a lorry driver who died in March following injuries sustained in an arson attack.
• The CNDC, however, is not threatening a strike, unlike the Federación de Dueños de Camiones del Sur (Fedesur) union, which also met with Pérez.
• Pérez criticised those calling for a strike, whilst acknowledging the difficulty of resolving the decades-long tensions between the Mapuche and the authorities. “We want to be very clear that we don’t see ultimatums as the way forward. There is no easy solution to these issues and the problems won’t be resolved overnight”, the minister said.
• Pérez suggested that strike action would only encourage more arson attacks. “Saying ‘one more lorry [attack] and we’re going on strike’ is practically an incentive to burn another lorry”, he said.
• Yesterday saw yet another spate of arson attacks in La Araucanía Region, with three heavy vehicles set alight in the municipality of Angol.

Looking Ahead: The stakes are further raised by a reported deterioration in the health of Mapuche prisoner Celestino Córdova, who has now been on hunger strike for 100 days. Hunger strikes by Córdova and other Mapuche prisoners were a major catalyst in the recent arson attacks on government buildings.

* Argentina’s state-owned oil company, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales (YPF), has published its earnings report for the second quarter of 2020, which show the company made a net income loss of Ar$85.05bn (US$1.17bn). The loss compares with a net gain of Ar$6.35bn in Q1 2020 and a contraction of Ar$2.33bn for the same April to June quarter in 2019. In a statement, YPF indicated that the result includes a net operating loss of AR$36bn before taking into consideration a reduction in share price. YPF said it had been negotiating a “complex economic and financial situation” that had been exacerbated by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. It also reported a “nonrecurring charge” of some Ar$57bn due to the fall in its gas share prices caused by the global oil and gas price shock earlier this year.