Development: Over 1m Colombians across the country took to
the streets on 12 October to protest against President Alvaro Uribe. In Bogotá
alone, 100,000 demonstrators took part in the biggest protest against the
president since he took office in August 2002.
Significance: The nationwide demonstration is the strongest indication
yet that Uribe's star is finally on the wane. According to the two biggest
unions, the Central Unitaria de Trabajadores (CUT) and the Confederación
General de Trabajadores (CGT), as many as 1.4m Colombians took part in the
protest, which was accompanied by a one-day general strike in the public sector.
The protests attracted representatives from all sectors of society including
state-sector workers, students, farmers, teachers, health-sector workers, the
unemployed, indigenous peoples, and Afro-Caribbeans. The leftwing Polo
Democrático led the opposition parties in the marches. Virtually without
exception the protests passed off peacefully, and the disruption, except to
city-centre transport, was minimal. Schools even stayed open, despite a large
number of teachers taking part in the demonstrations.
As is inevitable with such a broad range of participants, the demonstrators'
complaints were many and varied. However, three targets stood out above the
others: Colombia's proposed free-trade agreement (FTA) with the US and the
government's neo-liberal economic policies in general; the government's efforts
to secure Uribe's re-election for a second term; and the proposed tax reforms
currently being debated in congress.
All three measures are yet to be finalised. The protestors want the
government to examine fully the impact of an FTA with the US, and especially on
small businesses, before the deal is signed. Meanwhile, Uribe's opponents have
strong misgivings about the current moves to alter the constitution to allow
presidents to serve a second time.
Arguably the thorniest issue, however, is the proposed tax reforms, which, if
passed, would increase value-added tax (VAT) from 16% to 17% and introduce a 3%
VAT rate on virtually all goods and services that are currently exempt. The
government argues that such reforms are vital if the country is to overcome a
looming pensions crisis. Opponents argue that effect of the reforms will far
outweigh any benefits which might be accrued by the social-security funds.
Although economic growth has been decent (at 4%) under Uribe, the government
has had great difficulty bringing down the 13% unemployment rate. Meanwhile, 60%
of the 44m population live below the poverty line. Raising indirect taxes on
even the most basic of goods is known to be regressive, affecting the poor more
than the rich.
Criticism of the measures has not been limited to the streets and the unions.
The government is having a tough time getting the reforms through congress. On
12 October the comptroller, Antonio Hernández, sent a letter to congress saying
the VAT rate should be reduced, and should not be extended. Hernández, who is
elected by congress, supported government plans to tax lavish pensions but he
said the tax breaks the government is currently offering to the private sector
were not working.
Beyond its attempts to restore law and order, the FTA with the US,
re-election, and the tax reforms are the government's three chief priorities.
That the 12 October demonstration proves so many people are opposed to them puts
Uribe in a difficult position.
One of the president's greatest strengths is his popularity with the people.
Since he came to power, his approval rating has consistently been the highest in
Latin America. The latest opinion poll, however, published on 8 October, showed
the president's popularity falling by eight points over the previous three
months. At 67%, his approval is still very impressive, but the dip should
encourage Uribe's opponents. The break between those who think things are
getting worse and those who think things are getting better is even: 38% to
39%.