Development: On 10 July the interior minister, Felipe Vega, became the
fourth member of cabinet to have his resignation accepted since 7 July.
Significance: Over the weekend, President Alfredo Palacio accepted the
resignation of the economy minister, Diego Borja; the minister for foreign
trade, Jaoquín Zevallos; as well as the ministerial secretary of the
presidency, José Modesto Apolo. Borja did not go quietly; forced from office
due to a disagreement with the president over the new hydrocarbons law, he
claimed Apolo was the real power behind the throne and warned of the dangers of
the government succumbing to populist demands for greater social spending.
Vega accused unknown "interest groups" of demanding his resignation
but refused to speculate on who they might be. His successor has yet to be
named. Roberto Illingworth has taken over from Zevallos at foreign trade. Apolo,
who stood down in order to show "President Palacio is the one who is in
charge in this country", will be replaced by Rafael Parreño. The new
economy minister is Armando Rodas, who on taking office asked that Borja
moderate his comments about the government, claiming they were panicking
international investors.
Palacio has just under six months left of his mandate, but the elections for
his successor will take place on 15 October. This weekend, the second-placed
presidential candidate, banana magnate Alvaro Noboa, announced he would not run
in this year's elections, having failed in two previous attempts. Rumour has it
that his wife, Anabella Azín, may run for his Partido Renovador Institucional
Acción Nacional in his stead.
Candidates may begin the inscription process on 16 July and have until 15
August to decide if they will run for the positions of councillors, legislators,
Andean deputies and president. León Roldós, of the social democratic Réd
Etica y Democrática, is the frontrunner, now followed by Cynthia Viteri of the
Partido Social Cristiano. It is not clear who will benefit from Noboa's decision
to withdraw, but a poll published on 10 July showed it was far too early to make
any serious judgements on the election. According to the Cedatos poll, 85% of
Ecuadoreans have still not decided who they will vote for.
Former president Lucio Gutiérrez, who is still attempting to have the
constitutional court overturn his ban on running in this election, warned on 10
July that losing candidates may challenge the validity of the supreme electoral
court (TSE). The TSE is supposed to comprise of seven representatives of the top
seven most-voted for parties in the last election, but Gutiérrez's Sociedad
Patriótica, which came fifth, has no representative on the court, while the
Democracia Popular party (now called Unión Demócrata Cristiana), which came
eighth, does have a spokesperson on the tribunal.
Also on 10 July Foreign Minister Francisco Carrión, the most trusted figure
in Palacio's administration, returned from a two-day trip to Cuba. Carrión met
the Cuban foreign minister, Felipe Pérez Roque and the vice-president Carlos
Lage. After the trip Carrión made an ambiguous reference to the
Cuba-Bolivian-Venezuelan trade agreement Alternativa Bolivariana para las
Americas, saying Ecuador "valued all efforts towards integration" but
stressed the Andean Community's importance for Ecuador's future trade plans.