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“A finales de año, cuando desaparezcan los instrumentos que los fondos buitres han utilizado para la extorsión, habrá mejores posibilidades para dialogar con los acreedores que optaron por quedar fuera de la reestructuración de la deuda”. Esto fue lo que le dijo el ministro de economía de Argentina, Axel Kicillof, al diario mexicano La Jornada, el 3 de noviembre. Un día más tarde, el ministro vehementemente rechazó la interpretación de sus palabras como queriendo expresar que el gobierno negociaría con sus acreedores ‘holdout’ en el 2015. “Puras mentiras”, dijo Kicillof. Por otro lado, analistas del banco de inversiones, Credit Suisse, se reunieron recientemente con el gobierno y con figuras de la oposición. En una nota dirigida a sus clientes, el banco concluyó que “es probable que el gobierno negocie con sus acreedores holdout a principios del 2015”.

Holdouts

La mayoría entendió el comentario original de Kicillof como una referencia a la expiración de la cláusula de Rights Upon Future Offers (RUFO) de derechos sobre futuras ofertas en el acuerdo de reestructuración de la deuda argentina. Hasta el 31 de diciembre de este año, si Argentina ofrece a sus acreedores holdout una oferta mejor, corre el riesgo de que le lleguen abrumadoras demandas por un tratamiento igual de sus acreedores extranjeros que aceptaron un significativo descuento en el valor original de sus bonos impagos. Una vez que esta cláusula expire, en el 2015, Argentina podrá negociar con los “fondos buitres”, quienes poseen alrededor del 7% de sus deudas, sin temor a que haya repercusiones de sus otros acreedores.

Entre los holdouts los fondos de riesgo, NML Capital y Aurelius Capital Management, han encabezado el caso contra Argentina en las cortes de EU. En junio de este año, el juez de la corte de distrito de EU, Thomas Griesa, designó un mediador, conocido por el término legal de ‘Special Master’, para intentar romper el punto muerto entre las dos partes. Daniel Pollack tuvo éxito en juntar a representantes del gobierno de Argentina y de los dos fondos de riesgo en una reunión cara a cara, pero las conversaciones rápidamente se malograron.

Argentina culpa a Griesa y Pollack, alegando que las negociaciones requieren la participación de todos los holdouts, no solamente NML y Aurelius. El 3 de noviembre, Griesa emitió una orden permitiendo a Pollack convocar a otros tenedores de bonos no argentinos no reestructurados a unirse a las discusiones. Los abogados de los tenedores de bonos que aceptaron el intercambio, dijeron que la movida de Griesa podría forzar a Argentina a ofrecer mayores pagos a los holdouts, pero esto también podría asegurar que la cuestión se resuelta más rápidamente.

Tenedores de bonos restructurados

Hay riesgos en el intento de Argentina de dejar la disputa de la deuda indefinidamente sin resolución. Actualmente, Argentina no está pagando nada a ninguno de sus acreedores. Una orden de la corte de Griesa le prohíbe a los bancos de EU transferir los depósitos del gobierno argentino a los tenedores de bonos restructurados hasta que Argentina resuelva su disputa con los holdouts. Los tenedores de bonos que aceptaron los descuentos de deuda en los canjes del 2005 y del 2010 no están aceptando este estado de cosas calladamente.

El 30 de octubre el periodo de gracia para los pagos de intereses sobre bonos Par de Argentina expiró, sin que ningún pago sea hecho a los acreedores. De acuerdo con un informe de Bloomberg, Owl Creek, uno de los tenedores de bonos argentinos restructurados, ahora está discutiendo cómo acelerar el pago de sus bonos Par que deben madurar en el 2018. Owl Creek podría buscar una reestructuración en enero del 2015. Con el periodo de gracia de los bonos Par ya expirado, cualquier grupo con al menos el 25% de los US$5,4mm de deuda denominada en dólares tiene el derecho de buscar la aceleración de los pagos. El gobierno reaccionó sugiriendo que Owl Creek lleve el tema a Griesa.

El 3 de noviembre otro grupo de fondos, incluido el de George Soros, Quantum Partners, le pidió a un juez de Londres que asegure el pago de €1,3mm (US$1,6mm) de inversión en bonos argentinos, siguiendo al bloqueo de pagos hecho por Griesa. Los inversionistas son “inocentes terceros” en la disputa entre Argentina y los acreedores que se rehúsan a participar en un acuerdo de reestructuración, dicen los abogados de estos fondos, alegando que las órdenes de la corte de EU no deberían aplicarse a bonos gobernados por jurisdicciones fuera de EU. Pocos días antes, un grupo de inversionistas italianos perdieron en su intento de retirar los pagos de intereses hecho por Argentina y que actualmente están retenidos por el agente original, el Bank of New York Mellon.

• La Presidenta Fernández hospitalizada

El 2 de noviembre la Presidenta de Argentina, Cristina Fernández, ingresó a una clínica de Buenos Aires después de haber sido diagnosticada con una infección bacterial del colon. El vocero presidencial, Alfredo Scoccimarro, dijo que Fernández se encontraba en una condición estable y que estaba siendo tratada con antibióticos. La visita forzada a un hospital, forzó a Fernández a cancelar una reunión con la Presidenta de Chile, Michelle Bachelet, el 3 de noviembre. Fernández, quien tiene 61 años, tuvo una operación el año pasado para drenar la sangre que se había acumulado en su cerebro después de una caída.

Brazil’s new foreign minister, Mauro Vieira travelled back to Buenos Aires this week, where he used to work as ambassador (2004-2010). Relations between Brazil and Argentina are going through a delicate moment, with Brazilian exports to Argentina having fallen sharply in 2014. Brazil is also worried about the potential impact on Brazilian exports of the recent trade deals President Cristina Fernández signed with China. Vieira met with some leading members of the Argentine business community, who share his fears. But according to local media reports, Vieira’s principle focus was on Fernández’s possible successors.

The Brazilian business community is worried that the new deals President Fernández has inked with China will see the Asian giant become Argentina’s main trading partner. Many in Argentina are also uncomfortable with the small print, including Héctor Méndez, the president of the Unión Industrial Argentina (UIA). The Techint Group, an Italian-Argentine conglomerate, also believes the agreements merely reinforce China’s tendency to buy Latin American raw materials and sell back industrialised goods. On 11 February, Fernández attacked Techint on national television, threatening to cut off its government subsidy over its criticism.

That same day, Vieira and the Argentina foreign minister, Héctor Timerman, were trying, and failing to hammer out a trade deal. After the meeting Timerman acknowledged that trade between the two countries needed some “fine-tuning”, but that process has been kicked forward to an unspecified date. Before Vieira’s trip, Brazil’s development minister, Armando Monteiro, had talked about Brazil’s “discomfort” at Argentina’s steeper controls on imports and the problems Brazilian firms had in buying foreign currency in the country. Vieira was diplomatic about the Chinese deal, stating publicly that “a strategic relationship with Argentina doesn’t mean other countries must be excluded”.

The Argentine daily El Cronista quoted one businessman present at the breakfast meeting with Vieira as saying that the Brazilian wanted to discuss the likely presidential candidates’ proposals for the Argentine-Brazilian relationship. With just eight months of Fernández’s tenure left, the President is gradually losing influence, both at home and abroad; a situation accelerated by her government’s handling of the death of Alberto Nisman, the special prosecutor in the Amia bombing case.

Presidential candidates
A survey published on 8 February by the pollsters González y Valladares found that Sergio Massa, of the opposition Frente Renovador (FR), is currently the leading candidate to succeed Fernández. In the first poll since the death of Nisman, Massa had 30.8% support, moving ahead of Daniel Scioli, the likely candidate of the Frente para la Victoria (FPV) faction of the Partido Justicialista (PJ, Peronists), on 25.1% and the mayor of Buenos Aires, Mauricio Macri, on 23.1%. The González y Valladares poll found 54% of respondents rejected the performance of Fernández and her government during the affair. This appears to have affected Scioli’s numbers. Significantly, however, the poll did not include numbers for Florencio Randazzo, the interior & transport minister, who increasingly appears to be Fernández’s preferred choice.

On the attack
The government has gone on the offensive following strong criticism in the US over Nisman’s death. In a telephone interview with the Washington Post, Timerman said that the incident was “being used to attack the government”. When asked about the possibility of receiving US help to find those responsible, Timerman was blunt. “There are some problems in the United States that the FBI cannot solve. I don’t know why they think the FBI can solve problems all over the world.”

• Fernández defends Randazzo

In a national broadcast on 11 February, President Cristina Fernández urged candidates for the 2015 presidential elections to make public their declarations of assets showing increases in wealth and assets over the last 15 years. The purpose of the broadcast was to defend Florencio Randazzo, the interior and transport minister and possible presidential candidate, who had the details of his assets published by the American Task Force Argentina (ATFA), a group representing Argentina's 'hold-out' bondholders.

La selección nacional de fútbol de Chile ganó el torneo de la Copa América por primera vez en la historia del país el 4 de julio. Chile fue anfitrión del evento de fútbol Sudamericano y la Presidenta Michelle Bachelet buscó desesperadamente capitalizar el ‘factor de sentirse bien’ que generó el progreso de la selección, y su eventual triunfo. Pero un sondeo de opinión publicado por la firma encuestadora local, Adimark, el día después del triunfo en el partido final en Santiago, mostró que el rating de aprobación de Bachelet fue de sólo 27% en junio, y su rating de desaprobación fue un 68%, dos puntos porcentuales más que en mayo y la misma cifra que su predecesor, Sebastián Piñera (2010-2014), alcanzó cuando llegó a su punto más bajo en agosto del 2011, cuando las demostraciones estudiantiles de ese año llegaron a su punto culminante.

La Presidenta Bachelet se tomó ‘selfies’ con los jugadores de la selección, asistió a todos los partidos vistiendo la bufanda de la selección de fútbol de Chile y recibió a los campeones en el palacio presidencial de La Moneda, agarrando el trofeo. La victoria final fue aún más dulce, pues fue contra Argentina, un rival con antecedentes mucho más impresionantes que Chile, después de una angustiante y nerviosa tanda de penales.

Pero aunque el torneo proveyó una bienvenida distracción pata Bachelet de las tribulaciones políticas que la consumen, es poco probable que le provea un aumento en el apoyo del público. La encuesta Adimark se llevó a cabo antes de la victoria del equipo nacional en la final, pero después de su exitoso comienzo en el torneo, y el único signo de que Bachelet podría ganar de un público más benevolente, fue,  de acuerdo con el presidente de Adimark, Roberto Méndez, que sin la Copa América su caída pudo haber sido más aguda.

Deporte y política

Mucho ha sido escrito acerca de la relación entre el deporte y la política, pero los precedentes sugieren que mientras que los triunfos deportivos tienden a hacer a los gobiernos populares, aún más populares, no hacen de un gobierno impopular más popular, un ejemplo claro de esto fue lo ocurrido con la junta militar Argentina en la Copa Mundial de la Fifa de 1978. Y si Bachelet logra recuperarse en las encuestas, esto será por medio de un concertado esfuerzo para perfeccionar su forma de gobierno a través de una aptitud política mayor.

La prolongada reorganización a puertas cerradas del gabinete en mayo, fue seguida menos de un mes más tarde por la dimisión el 7 de junio de Jorge Insunza, el secretario general de la presidencia, en medio de alegatos de conflicto de intereses. El sondeo de Adimark, por su lado, muestra que la evaluación de la ‘credibilidad’ y la ‘capacidad para generar confianza’ de Bachelet, ambas estaban deterioradas.

El escándalo del financiamiento de campaña

El escándalo del financiamiento ilegal de campañas policías que precipitó la larga trayectoria hacia abajo en el rating de aprobación de Bachelet, incluso aunque primariamente involucra a políticos de la ultraconservadora oposición de la Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI), sólo va a correr y correr en la misma medida en que a Bachelet le encantaría ser capaz de ponerlo a dormir. Esta misma semana, Jovino Novoa, uno de los fundadores y líder ideológico de la UDI (ver abajo), fue puesto bajo arresto domiciliario en conexión con la canalización ilegal de fondos de campaña desde el holding financiero, Penta, y el gigante minero, SQM, para numerosos candidatos durante la última década.

Sin embargo, la gobernante coalición, Nueva Mayoría, no está en posición de disfrutar de la vicisitudes de la UDI, debido a que la percepción pública prevaleciente es que toda la clase política está involucrada en tales irregularidades. Por tal razón, su popularidad ha igualmente sufrido.

• Políticos de la UDI

Jovino Novoa tuvo que ser sacado de la sala de la corte dos semanas antes, cuando el juez en el caso del financiamiento irregular de campañas políticas ordenó que el ex alcalde (de la UDI) de Santiago, Pablo Zalaquett, sea puesto bajo arresto domiciliario parcial. Los otros dos prominentes políticos de la UDI, Iván Moreira y Felipe de Mussy, acusados de similar ilegalidad, son diputados nacionales en funciones, y disfrutan de inmunidad parlamentaria, pero ellos pueden ser despojados de la misma en el debido momento por la corte suprema.

“Of course, what is happening in Argentina worries us, it harms us. Just ask tourism operators”. These remarks were made by Luis Lacalle Pou, the presidential candidate of Uruguay’s centre-right opposition Partido Nacional (PN, Blancos), during his appearance at a business forum in Argentina, where he outlined the economic policies that he would implement should he win election in the general election on 27 October. Lacalle Pou was responding to a question put to him by Argentine businessmen. But back in Uruguay it is the presidential candidate of the ruling left-wing Frente Amplio (FA) coalition, Daniel Martínez, who is asking if Lacalle Pou and other opposition candidates are paying attention to the economic crisis that has befallen Argentina under the stewardship of the centre-right administration led by President Mauricio Macri, with whom they share a general view on economic policy.

The economic adjustment plan that President Macri implemented following his election in 2015 to reduce Argentina’s fiscal deficit has been praised by Lacalle Pou and other opposition candidates in Uruguay, including Ernesto Talvi of the right-of-centre Partido Colorado (PC), who along with Martínez and Lacalle Pou are considered to be the three main contenders for the presidency. Lacalle Pou and Talvi pledged to implement similar government spending cuts if elected to address Uruguay’s own growing fiscal deficit under the successive FA administrations in order to strengthen the domestic economy and stave off a potential credit rating downgrade.

The opposition presidential candidates said that if Macri could reduce Argentina’s fiscal deficit the same could be done in Uruguay and that the FA had shown that it was simply unwilling to cut wasteful spending to achieve this. This criticism struck a nerve not just with the FA, which often holds up its prudent stewardship of the economy as one of its main achievements, but also with some economic sectors in Uruguay that have become increasingly critical of the FA’s economic management.

Un Solo Uruguay and other agricultural sector organisations complain that government spending under the FA has focused more on social spending than on investment spending. They contend that this has resulted in Uruguay becoming increasingly less competitive in the global economy and that this is one of the factors that has led to the slowdown in domestic economic activity. Un Solo Uruguay, which emerged last year and has been staging large demonstrations demanding changes in government policy, has announced that it will stage a new major mobilisation on 5 September.

• Un Solo Uruguay

The Un Solo Uruguay umbrella agricultural producers’ movement called on its members to march to the Torre Ejecutiva government headquarters in Montevideo to press their demands for more infrastructure spending and the adoption of other measures to boost competitivity. “We have been making the same demands for 20 months… the government has six months left… [but] all its ministers are in campaign mode and no one is doing anything to solve problems,” Un Solo Uruguay leaders complained.

But with Argentina now suffering from recession, high inflation, and being forced to implement drastic measures to try to avoid another currency crisis before it also goes to the polls on 27 October, things are now looking different and the adoption of a Macri-style government austerity plan looks less convincing.

Martínez made a point of alluding to this during a public event on 2 September during which he said that, given the situation in Argentina, Lacalle Pou and Talvi must now be “desperately” trying to distance themselves from Macri’s economic policies, as these had clearly failed. Martínez said that the crisis in Argentina was worrisome but denied that it could spread to Uruguay as notoriously occurred in 2002. He argued that Uruguay was now a different economy thanks in no small part to the policies pursued by the FA which had allowed it to decouple the country from Argentina’s economy to a significant extent and to establish a more resilient growth base.

Martínez went on to say that despite what Lacalle Pou and Talvi may say now, they are ideologically aligned with Macri and their proposals for reducing the deficit “are very similar to the neoliberal measures applied by Argentina”. But Lacalle Pou defended his position and openly disagreed with Martínez during his guest appearance at a business forum staged in Buenos Aires.

The PN candidate told the crowd that the market volatility in Argentina is “enormously difficult for us because we lose competitiveness… because we stop exporting to you and Argentines stop going to Uruguay”, alluding to the large number of Argentines that traditionally holiday in Uruguay over the summer and who are now not expected to come in similar numbers this year as a result of the fall in the value of the Argentine peso.

• Tourism concerns

Daniel Martínez may have tried to minimise concerns about the effects that the crisis in Argentina could have on Uruguay’s economy but Tourism Minister Liliam Kechichian cut a very different figure. “The news from Argentina has us very worried,” Kechichian said on 2 September in allusion to the currency controls imposed by the Macri administration restricting the purchase of US dollars by Argentines, which could discourage them from travelling abroad given the low valuation of the Argentine peso. Indeed, Kechichian said that her ministry was holding meetings with tourism operators to discuss ways to attract Argentine tourists (or from elsewhere) to visit the country during the Southern hemisphere summer months (December-February), high season for Uruguay’s beach resorts.

Lacalle Pou also insisted on the need to cut spending to reduce Uruguay’s fiscal deficit. “In the face of a deficit there are two options. Increasing taxes and tariffs is one. The other is for the state to undergo belt-tightening. There is no other way, anything else leads to a crash. In my view, Uruguay cannot withstand any more tax increases,” Lacalle Pou said.

Similarly, Talvi also responded to Martínez by insisting that the crisis in Argentina will create problems for Uruguay and that reducing the deficit via government spending cuts is now indispensable. Talvi said that while Uruguay is now less likely to suffer contagion from Argentina than in the past, the country is still in a vulnerable position precisely because of its “unacceptably high” fiscal deficit.

“The problem with having a deficit like Uruguay’s is that we are quickly falling into debt. And you never know exactly when credit may dry up”, Talvi said, adding that if credit to Uruguay is cut “the country will have a tremendous crash”. Moreover, Talvi defended the recipe of cutting spending to balance the books and said that the Macri administration’s programme failed because it did not stick to it. “The Macri government did not do its homework…. it discovered that it could take on debt [to finance the deficit] and delayed balancing the books. When credit lines were closed you got a crisis,” Talvi explained.

With the latest official figures showing that Uruguay’s fiscal deficit reached 4.9% of GDP in July, its highest level in 30 years and already above the 4.6% government projection for the whole of the year, the debate over how to reduce the deficit in a challenging regional economic environment, in which economic growth will be difficult to achieve, looks poised to dominate the electoral campaign.

CHILE | Economic activity continues to recover. On 1 September, Chile’s central bank (BCCh) released the latest figures for the July monthly index of economic activity (Imacec), which grew 18.1% year-on-year after a record 20.6% expansion in June. In seasonally adjusted terms, economic activity expanded 1.4% in July compared with June.

The BCCh noted that, in year-on-year terms, all the Imacec’s components grew, buoyed by a strong performance from the services sector (15.6%), and reflecting “the lower basis of comparison with July 2020, the gradual reopening of the economy, and the better adaptation of households and businesses to the sanitary emergency associated with Covid-19”.

In monthly terms, the July Imacec was driven by 2.5% growth in both the trade and services sectors, and it was tempered by a 0.9% contraction in the production of goods.  

Economy Minister Lucas Palacios hailed the July Imacec result as “important because it consolidates an economic recovery which generates new labour opportunities”. Palacios highlighted the resilience of Chile’s economy, which was shuttered by another strict lockdown earlier this year due to rising coronavirus cases.

With around 73% of its population fully vaccinated, Chile now appears to have brought the epidemic under control and the government is rolling back restrictions, although the country’s borders remained closed to foreign nationals.

Mexicans in 23 of the country’s 32 states will soon have access to free healthcare under the IMSS-Bienestar programme, a flagship initiative of the government led by President Andrés Manuel López Obrador. Representatives from the 21 states governed by the ruling Movimiento Regeneración Nacional (Morena) party, and two with governors from allied parties, signed up to the programme on 10 October. However, governors from the nine opposition-held states refused to sign up, indicating just one of the challenges facing the ambitious programme.

The federal health ministry and the IMSS-Bienestar, a decentralised government body, signed the national agreement for the federalisation of the IMSS-Bienestar health system with the state representatives. The agreement aims to consolidate the operation of a federally run healthcare system that provides free medical attention to Mexicans who do not have social security.

The agreement means that the federal government will transfer 707 hospitals and 13,966 health centres to the IMSS-Bienestar network, providing free health services to 53.2m, or 80%, of the 65m Mexicans who do not have social security. The remaining 20% reside in states where the state governments did not sign the agreement, meaning state authorities will continue to be responsible for healthcare, with no universal free healthcare access for the uninsured.

• Opposition states

The states that did not sign the agreement are Aguascalientes, Chihuahua, Guanajuato, Querétaro, and Yucatán, all ruled by the right-wing opposition Partido Acción Nacional (PAN), as well as Coahuila and Durango, governed by the centrist opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), and Jalisco and Nuevo León, governed by the leftist opposition-aligned Movimiento Ciudadano (MC).

Zoé Robledo, head of Mexico’s national social security institute (IMSS), who is overseeing the programme, explained that under the IMSS-Bienestar system, there will be a single supply management system for all hospitals in order to ensure the timely provision of prescriptions free of charge. In addition, the government will carry out initiatives focused on early childhood development, mental health, and the prevention of chronic degenerative diseases, as well as maintenance and renovation works to re-purpose old facilities and expand intensive care and neonatal areas, consultation rooms, and medical offices.

In a press conference, López Obrador said the IMSS-Bienestar healthcare system would be fully operational by March 2024. “We are already progressing towards having this first-class public health system, as all Mexicans deserve,” he said. “Health is not a privilege, it is a right of our people.” López Obrador added that another objective was to have a ‘central pharmacy’, the biggest in the country, which would provide medical units and hospitals with medical supplies when they need them. He said his government was preparing to buy the stock and that the pharmacy would be ready in December this year.

The supply of medicines has been a major failing in López Obrador’s government. The wellbeing ministry (Insabi), which IMSS-Bienestar replaced earlier this year, was created early in López Obrador’s term in 2019 as part of a push to centralise the medicine procurement system. However, the system was plagued by difficulties and complaints skyrocketed from those unable to find the medicines they required [SSR-22-02].

The hiring of Cuban doctors to work in the IMSS-Bienestar system has also raised concerns. Those working in the health sector have called for the government to focus on improving the working conditions and salaries of those trained in Mexico rather than hiring doctors from elsewhere. Rights groups have also raised concerns over the rights of Cuban doctors sent to work abroad.

Paraguay’s President Santiago Peña claimed in a radio interview this week that strong ties with Taiwan have not prevented a good trade relationship with China, to which it still exported soybeans. Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Lin Jian responded flatly that China has received “zero” soybean imports from Paraguay in recent years.

Paraguay’s minister of information technology and communications, Gustavo Villate, praised “solid and fruitful diplomatic relations” with Taipei while leading a delegation to Taiwan from 17-21 March, and he underlined the Peña administration’s “unconditional” support. Paraguay’s trade & industry minister, Javier Giménez, subsequently announced on 21 March that Taiwan had authorised zero tariffs for Paraguayan pork exports. According to a government press release, the sector had previously paid a tariff of 12.5%. Taiwan also set a zero-tariff rate for 16 other Paraguayan products, including wheat flour, beef burgers, and ethanol.

Heralding the breakthrough, President Peña claimed the following day that Paraguay could keep boosting ties with Taiwan while retaining positive trade ties with China. The comment was meant for a domestic audience: the agricultural sector has long complained that it is missing out on significant revenue because of the refusal of successive Asociación Nacional Republicana-Partido Colorado (ANR-PC) administrations to ditch Taiwan for China. But it touched a nerve in China.

Lin directly contradicted Peña on 25 March, while urging Paraguay to “stand on the right side of history, instead of relying on petty tricks and looking for loopholes to exploit”. At a press conference later that day, Paula Carro, a Paraguayan government spokesperson, was asked about Lin’s comments and responded that Paraguay exported food products to China “through intermediaries”.

China’s response

China’s foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian urged Paraguay to “quit making things up to justify its wrongful ties with Taiwan”. He said that Taiwan was “an inalienable part” of China and that “the one China principle is a universally recognised norm in international relations”. He added that if the Peña administration wanted to “seek development for itself and for the well-being of its people, it should be aware of this trend and…stop

Transport sector workers and employers held another one-day strike against extortion on 14 January. An estimated 20,000 buses came to a stop in Lima and Callao, as their owners and drivers demanded greater protection from the government to control extortion by organised crime.  The stoppage was widely observed during the morning but less so in the afternoon and evening. The organisers said that in the 15 months to December 2025 a total of 73 bus drivers had been killed at the hands of organised crime groups.

President José Jerí met some of the strikers in Lima and promised government action to fight the crime wave. They called for an increased police presence and better street lighting. In northern Lima the Asociación Nacional de Integración de Transportistas led a demonstration and accused the government of “murdering” its members by failing to provide adequate protection, and of passing legislation that is lenient in the treatment of organised crime.

The chifa, the hoodie, and the president

TV news programme Punto Final, part of the Latina local news operation, got a scoop this week. It produced video clips showing President José Jerí wearing a white hoodie on 26 December as he entered a chifa (the name given to eateries offering a mix of Chinese and Peruvian food).

According to the programme, Jerí met Chinese businessman Zhihua Yang, who owns the chifa and has interests in hydroelectric and construction companies. The meeting was informal and not listed in the official registry of presidential meetings. It did not go down well with congress, where the ethics commission is calling for an investigation, or with Jerí’s right-of-centre Somos Perú party, which wants to start a disciplinary process. Jerí insisted nothing improper had occurred or been discussed. 

Development: On 5 November Paraguay’s foreign minister, José Félix Fernández Estigarribia, said that Paraguay was consulting the World Trade Organization (WTO) about potential retaliatory measures against the trade barriers imposed by its neighbour and partner in the Southern Common Market (Mercosur), Argentina.

Significance: The embattled Paraguayan administration led by President Federico Franco is taking a harder line against its regional neighbours after Paraguay’s temporary political (but not economic) suspension from the Southern Common Market (Mercosur, it was also temporarily suspended from the regional political grouping, the Union of South American Nations [Unasur]). While the Asunción administration appears to be acting under pressure from the domestic private sector, this latest decision will only further complicate its frayed relations with regional neighbours and could hamper the tentative negotiations to lift the suspension.

Key points:

• Paraguay considers the barriers imposed by Argentina to be in violation both of Mercosur and other bilateral agreements with Paraguay. Trade disputes within Mercosur are not uncommon and its four founding members (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay) typically resort to diplomatic solutions. However, Argentina doesn’t recognise the Franco administration and has no diplomatic relations with it. Nonetheless Fernández Estigarribia said that Paraguay would present a formal complaint to Buenos Aires.

• Fernández Estigarrbia explained that President Franco had instructed him to take a case to the WTO following complaints by Paraguayan exporters that their shipments have been retained in the port of Buenos Aires for weeks. Fernández Estigarrbia is due to meet exporters to hear their complaints. He added, “If this continues, they [Argentina] will be reneging on their word. They said that there would be political sanctions only [as a result of Paraguay’s temporary suspension from Mercosur], which are already arbitrary and unjust, but these are economic”.

• The foreign minsiter’s comments coincided with an announcement by Enrique Cáceres, the Paraguayan director of Yacyretá, the bi-national hydroelectric plant shared by Paraguay and Argentina, that the latter had paid part of its outstanding US$160m debt owing to Paraguay for Paraguay’s surplus energy produced at Yacyretá. According to Cáceres, Argentina made a US$104m payment (in dollars), US$99m of which corresponds to charges for last year, with the rest corresponding to the first payment for 2012. Previously, the Argentine government had stalled the payment as part of official efforts to stem the outflow of foreign currency.

COLOMBIA | Menor ritmo del crecimiento. El Departamento Administrativo Nacional de Estadísticas (Dane) de Colombia reveló el 14 de junio que el PIB del país se había incrementado un 2,8% en el primer trimestre del 2015. Esto representa un decrecimiento de 3,7 puntos porcentuales comparado con el crecimiento del 6,5% registrado en el primer trimestre del 2014. De acuerdo con Dane, siete sectores económicos registraron crecimientos en el primer trimestre, y el crecimiento en “cinco de ellos fue superior al 2,8%”. Los sectores que condujeron el crecimiento fueron el de comercio (que se incrementó un 5%); la construcción (4,9%); y los sectores financieros y de bienes raíces (4,4%). Los sectores que tuvieron un menor desempeño fueron las manufacturas (-2,1%) y la minería (-0,1%).

Pese al hecho de que el crecimiento del primer trimestre de este año fuera menor que al del 2014, el ministro de finanzas, Mauricio Cárdenas, revisó hacia arriba su pronóstico de crecimiento para todo el año un 0,1 punto porcentual, al 3,6%, argumentando que la actividad económica se acelerará en los próximos meses. El año pasado Colombia registro un crecimiento del PIB del 4,6%, pero desde entonces la actividad económica ha decaído en primer lugar como resultado de las menores exportaciones petroleras del país y del sector minero, debido a la caída en los precios internacionales del petróleo. Esto había llevado al ministerio de finanzas a revisar hacia abajo su pronóstico de crecimiento del 4,2% al 3,5% a comienzos de este año.

Sin embargo, Cárdenas señaló que el crecimiento del primer trimestre del 2015 de Colombia aún era más elevado que los de las grandes economías de la región, con Brasil registrando un crecimiento del 1,6%; Perú 1,7%; y Chile 2,5%. De hecho, Cárdenas agregó que, de acuerdo con sus proyecciones, Colombia podría cerrar el 2015 con la segunda mayor tasa de crecimiento económico entre las más grandes economías de la región, detrás de Perú (4,3%), y seguida por Chile (2,9%), México (2,8%), Argentina (-0,6%), y Brasil (-1,1%).

Pero no todos son tan optimistas acerca de las perspectivas económicas de Colombia como Cárdenas. En su último panorama económico, difundido el 3 de junio, la Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDE) recortó su pronóstico de crecimiento para Colombia del 4,4% al 3,3%. El informe de la OCDE señala que espera que el crecimiento de Colombia disminuya este año como resultado de “el gradual reajuste de la inversión y las exportaciones, debido a los más débiles precios de las materias primas en el 2015”.

PERÚ | Comienza a elevarse el crecimiento. El PIB de Perú se incrementó un 4,25% en abril, comparado con el mismo mes en el 2014, reveló el Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (Inei) en sus últimas cifras de crecimiento económico difundidas el 15 de junio. Esta es la tasa de crecimiento más alta tasa registrada por la economía peruana desde el comienzo del año, sugiriendo que la actividad económica interna está comenzando a elevarse después de haber sufrido una marcada desaceleración desde mediados del 2013.

Las cifras de abril no solamente significan que ahora Perú ha registrado 69 meses consecutivos de crecimiento económico, sino que también lleva la tasa acumulada de crecimiento para los últimos 12 meses a 1,74% y a 2,39% hasta ahora en este año. El informe que acompaña a las cifras del Inei, destaca el hecho de que el crecimiento llega respaldado de una recuperación en los niveles de actividad en sectores clave como la minería, la pesca, y las manufacturas. En particular, el informe del Inei señala que la actividad minera metálica se incrementó un 18,15%, la más alta tasa desde el 2008. La actividad en el sector de manufacturas informó de un incremento del 6,10%, después de 11 meses de crecimiento negativo. Aunque por otro lado, la actividad en el sector de la construcción se contrajo un 8,57%.

A pesar de los resultados positivos de abril, el Banco Central de Perú aún no ha revisado hacia arriba su conservador pronóstico de crecimiento para el 2015 del 2,36%. En su último informe de Perspectivas Económicas Globales, publicado el 10 de junio, el Banco Mundial (BM) recortó su pronóstico de crecimiento económico para Perú para este año por 0,9 de punto porcentual, al 3,9%. El BM atribuye su decisión a la caída en los precios de las materias primas en los mercados internacionales. Sin embargo, el pronóstico para Perú del BM permanece como uno de los más altos para la región, detrás de Panamá (6,2%); Bolivia (4,8%); y Guatemala (4%).

BOLIVIA | Inversión de Total. El 11 de junio el ministerio de hidrocarburos & energía de Bolivia anunció que la firma petrolera de Francia, Total S.A., ha prometido invertir US$980m en la segunda etapa de prospección de gas natural en el yacimiento de Incahuasi, localizado en el departamento de Santa Cruz en el este del país. Una declaración del ministerio dice que la promesa de la firma llega después de una reunión celebrada entre el Ministro de Hidrocarburos & Energía Luis Alberto Sánchez con el CEO de Total, Patrick Pouyanné, en Bélgica.

La declaración agrega que la inversión de Total S.A. garantizará la entrada en operaciones del yacimiento Incahuasi en el 2016, lo que ayudará a incrementar la producción nacional de gas natural por 6,5m de metros cúbicos por día. Bolivia actualmente produce 60,3m de metros cúbicos de gas natural por día. Pouyanné y Sánchez también evaluaron la posibilidad de que Total S.A. trabaje en un proyecto de generación de energía solar en el departamento de Potosí, en el sudoeste del país.

• Exención de visa para el Área Schengen

El 10 de junio el Presidente de Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, y su par de Perú, Ollanta Humala, firmaron el acuerdo que garantiza la exención de visas para ciudadanos peruanos y colombianos que quieran visitar la Unión Europea (UE) por un periodo de hasta 90 días, en una ceremonia en Bruselas, Bélgica. Las negociaciones entre la UE y los dos países andinos sobre asegurar la exención de visa para el Área Schengen, que abarca a 22 estados miembros de la UE más Noruega, Islandia, Suiza, y Liechtenstein, comenzaron en mayo del 2015 y, siguiendo a la firma del acuerdo, entraría en vigencia en los próximos meses. El Presidente Santos dijo que el acuerdo tendría un impacto “muy positivo” sobre los lazos comerciales y de inversión entre Colombia, Perú, y la UE.

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CHILE | Economy shows signs of cooling. Chile’s central bank (BCCh) released the latest data for the monthly index of economic activity (Imacec) on 1 March. The Imacec, which serves as a preview of GDP, grew by 9% year-on-year in January 2022, but it contracted by 1% compared with December 2021. This is the second consecutive monthly negative result for the Imacec, and the index’s biggest monthly contraction in 10 months, suggesting a slowdown in the recovery of the Chilean economy after the hit from the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic.

The BCCh cites a 2.4% decline in the production of goods but also mining. A 3.4% decrease in trade also influenced the negative monthly result in January. Only services offered a counterbalance, growing 1.3% month-on-month.

The 9% year-on-year increase in the January Imacec is “somewhat smaller than expected, but confirms a solid and persistent economic recovery,” Chile’s outgoing economy minister, Lucas Palacios, said. Palacios called for “local political stability and responsibility in the constitutional debate” given that the war between Russia and Ukraine adds some uncertainty to Chile’s economic outlook and is impacting energy and food prices. The BCCh currently expects Chile’s GDP to expand by 2.1% in 2022.

Peru’s President Dina Boluarte accused the Inter-American Court of Human Rights (IACtHR) this week of acting as if Peru is still “a vice-royalty or colony”, with what she denounced as its unwarranted interference in the country’s sovereign affairs. The foreign minister, Elmer Schialer, said the government will decide before Boluarte completes her term in July next year whether to withdraw the country from the Inter-American Human Rights System (IAHRS), which includes the IACtHR and the Inter-American Commission on Human Rights (IACHR). The president of Peru’s judiciary, Janet Tello, described the Boluarte administration’s plan as “disturbing”.

On 1 August Schialer said the government would establish a commission to consider advice from academics, civil society leaders, and professional bodies on whether it was in Peru’s interests to remain in the supranational human rights bodies. He said the government would reach a decision “as quickly as possible”.

Speaking at a public event to mark the ‘Day of the Judges’, Tello expressed concern. Tello said rulings by human rights courts created by international treaties should not be interpreted as “interference” with the judiciary; she might have added that, by contrast, recent history provided no shortage of examples of domestic political interference with Peru’s judiciary.

Tello said that to date only two governments have withdrawn from the IACtHR, which was set up in 1969 by the American Convention on Human Rights, also known as the Pact of San José: Trinidad and Tobago in 1998 and Venezuela in 2012. Originally 20 governments, including Peru, agreed to accept its jurisdiction to interpret the Convention on rights and liberties.

President Boluarte was present at the ‘Day of the Judges’ ceremony along with the newly elected president of congress, José Jerí Oré of Somos Perú, who supports the introduction of the death penalty and Peru’s withdrawal from both the Pact of San José and the wider IAHRS. Just minutes after listening to Tello’s remarks, Boluarte made her own position clear. Boluarte accused the IACtHR of “seeking to interfere in our sovereign capacity to manage our affairs” and of “subverting our institutions, exerting pressure for judges to confront the legislative and executive branches”.

The president of the IACtHR, Nancy Hernández López, said on 24 July that Peru should “immediately suspend” a law approved by congress that would provide an amnesty for members of the military, police, and self-defence committees accused of committing human rights abuses during what it described as “the struggle against terrorism” between 1980 and 2000, a period which would not just cover the internal conflict with the Maoist Sendero Luminoso (SL) and Movimiento Revolucionario Túpac Amaru (MRTA) guerrilla groups, but also the whole of the authoritarian government of former president Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000).

Boluarte also denounced the IACtHR for criticising a law which has not entered into force yet. Boluarte is yet to promulgate the amnesty law. She has until 15 August either to ratify it, veto it, or to send it back to congress with observations. Even before she nailed her colours to the mast with a public criticism of the IACtHR, Boluarte was unlikely to stand up to congress on the matter. With an approval rating of just 2%, Boluarte has consistently kowtowed to congress upon which she is entirely dependent for her political survival.

Impact of amnesty law

No fewer than 156 cases with final judgements and 600 ongoing trials related to serious human rights violations and crimes under international law committed during the internal armed conflict could be affected by the amnesty law if it is promulgated by President Boluarte, according to United Nations (UN) legal experts. In a statement on 17 July these experts urged the Boluarte administration “to use its constitutional prerogative to veto the law”, arguing that failure to do so would “put the State in clear breach of its obligations under international law”. 

COLOMBIA | Economy expands. Colombia’s economy grew by 3.6% year-on-year in the third quarter, according to figures released by the national statistics institute (Dane) on 18 November. Growth was driven by an 8% expansion in public administration and defence, compulsory social security schemes, education and healthcare, and social services activities, which contributed 1.3 percentage points to the total figure. Wholesale and retail trade, transport and storage, and accommodation and food services grew by 5.6%. Growth in the first nine months of the year was up by 2.8% on the same period a year earlier, surpassing forecasts.

PERU | Informal mining. The congressional energy and mines commission approved an extension on 18 November of the Registro Integral de Formalización Minera (Reinfo), a temporary register which critics argue provides cover for illegal miners to continue operating, pending a process to ‘formalise’ their employment and land claims. 

The commission voted to extend the Reinfo until 31 December 2027, prompting celebrations from informal miners gathered outside congress. The current Reinfo permits expire at the end of this year. The ministry of energy and mines had presented a legislative initiative earlier this year, known as the Mape Law, which sought to speed up the formalisation process and regulate small-scale and artisanal mining, but this has been mired in congress.

Jorge Zapata, the president of the powerful private sector lobby Confiep, said the approval of the Reinfo extension was “not good news” but “would have been worse if the 50,000 miners removed from the previous process had been reinstated”. Zapata argued that the constant extensions of the Reinfo were prolonging the problem indefinitely, conspiring against growth and damaging the environment.

BOLIVIA | New hydrocarbons and energy minister, YPFB chief. Bolivia’s President Rodrigo Paz swore in Marcelo Blanco as Bolivia’s new hydrocarbons and energy minister on 22 April. Blanco, who had been serving as deputy minister of electricity and renewable energy, replaces Mauricio Medinaceli, who had been in the post since November 2025, when Paz took office.

Also on 22 April, Claudia Cronenbold quit as head of the state-run hydrocarbons firm, Yacimientos Petrolíferos Fiscales Bolivianos (YPFB), having only been in the post since 30 March. She replaced Yussef Akly, who was forced out over a fuel contamination scandal [WR-26-06].

With Paz swearing in Sebastián Daroc, a civil engineer who was hydrocarbons and energy secretary in the Tarija departmental government from 2008-2010, as Cronenbold’s interim replacement on 23 April, the changes come as Bolivia’s crucial hydrocarbons sector is facing crisis, amid declining production and fuel shortages.

In her resignation letter, Cronenbold said that after assuming the role, she had found YPFB to be in “a significantly more deteriorated institutional state than was expected”, blaming this on nearly two decades of mismanagement under previous governments.

HAITI | IHRC. El Presidente de Haití, Michel Martelly, ha proveído más claridad en lo referente a su visión de la Comisión Interina de Reconstrucción de Haití (IHRC, siglas en inglés), que tiene la tarea de coordinar y desplegar los recursos y el apoyo de los donantes internacionales  para los esfuerzos de reconstrucción. Habiendo irritado a la comunidad internacional con sus preguntas sobre la eficacia  de la IHRC, que es co-presidida  por el ex presidente Bill Clinton (también enviado especial de la ONU a Haití) y el Primer Ministro de Haití Jean-Max Bellerive (en ausencia de un reemplazante), Martelly requirió una extensión de un año del mandato del panel, que tiene fijado expirar en octubre de 2011.
Eso es, sin embargo, dependiente de la aprobación de la legislatura liderada por la oposición, con la cual Martelly ha estado en un punto muerto político desde que asumió el poder en mayo. El también designó a Ann Valerie Timothee Milfort, previamente jefa de gabinete en el ministerio de asuntos de la mujer, como directora ejecutiva interina, como también como seis nuevos miembros de la junta para reemplazar a los miembros salientes de las administraciones previas. El requerimiento de la extensión por Martelly se produce en medio de continuadas críticas internas e internacionales acerca del progreso en los esfuerzos de reconstrucción. De los US$3,2bn aprobados hasta ahora, solamente cinco proyectos, por un valor de unos US$84m han sido completados.

CARIBE | Nuevo Secretario General de la Caricom. La Comunidad Caribeña (Caricom) finalmente ha designado al embajador de Dominica, Irwin LaRocque, para reemplazar a Sir Edwin Carrington, que renunció como Secretario General de la Caricom en diciembre de 2010 después de 18 años en el cargo. El secretario general asistente para el comercio y la integración económica en el secretariado de la Caricom en momentos de su nombramiento, un puesto que ha retenido desde 2005, LaRocque previamente había servido como secretario permanente en varios ministerios en Dominica (incluido comercio, industria, desarrollo empresarial, turismo y asuntos exteriores, donde él encabezó el servicio diplomático).
También sirvió como asesor principal del gobierno de Dominica en materias concernientes a la integración económica y el comercio regional e internacional. La designación de LaRocque apunta a mitigar las crecientes dudas acerca de la efectividad de la Caricom que proveyó el telón de fondo de la 32da cumbre anual celebrada a inicios de este mes [IL-11-27].

CUBA | Apelación de Gross. El 22 de julio, la Corte Suprema del Pueblo de Cuba comenzó a escuchar una apelación contra su sentencia del ciudadano de EU, Alan P. Gross, que fue sentenciado a 15 años de prisión en marzo, bajo cargos de actos contra el estado cubano. Las autoridades cubanas arrestaron a Gross, un subcontratista  para USAID, en La Habana, en diciembre de 2009, alegando que él estaba ayudando a la comunidad disidente de Cuba entregándoles equipamiento ilegal de comunicaciones. De acuerdo con una declaración del abogado de EU de Gross, Peter J. Kahn, Gross reafirmó en la audiencia su creencia “en la soberanía de la nación cubana y su pueblo”.
El gobierno cubano anunció que la corte dictaminaría sobre la apelación de Gross “en los próximos días.” En enero, la policía de La habana dijo al representante del Departamento de Estado de EU, que Gross podría ser liberado por razones humanitarias (su hermana y su madre sufren de cáncer desde su arresto). La administración de Barack Obama ha dicho que las relaciones EU-Cubanas no pueden mejorar más hasta que Gross esté libre.

CUBA | Republicanos apuntan a las restricciones de viajes. El 21 de julio, el Comité de Asuntos Exteriores de la Cámara de Representantes de EU aprobó un segundo proyecto de ley que apunta a retractar la política de facilitar el viaje de familiares y las restricciones a las remesas de dinero entre EU y Cuba. La enmienda a la última autorización del departamento de estado fue agregada por el Representante David Rivera (R, Florida).
Un número de Demócratas de la Cámara se unieron a los Republicanos para aprobar la enmienda para reincorporar las restricciones a los viajes implementadas bajo la administración de George W. Bush. Una enmienda anterior para el mismo efecto sometida por el Representante Mario Díaz-Balart (R, Florida) para la ley de asignaciones del Tesoro de EU.

Budget proposal: On 28 September President Piñera unveiled a US$61.7bn 2014 budget proposal, which calls for a 3.9% real increase in central government spending over estimated spending in 2013 and is up 2.1% on the 2013 budget. He listed as the main priorities: “to continue strengthening Chile’s capacity for growth, job creation and higher salaries; to continue improving the quality, financing and access to education; to continue strengthening the fight against crime and drug trafficking”. The presidential press release stated that the allocation for education (which accounts for 21% of spending) would allow the number of beneficiaries of the preferential school subsidy to increase “from 700,000 children and young people in 2009 to over 1.5 million in 2014”. The budget proposal also assigned resources to “ensure that State-financed scholarships are available to every deserving young person from the 60% lowest income households in Chile. This will be achieved by tripling the number of scholarships, from 123,000 in 2009 to almost 400,000 in 2014”. On health, which represents 16% of spending, the proposal assigned funds to operate 20 new hospitals built under the current administration and pledged to finance the construction of another 16 hospitals currently under construction, in addition to “28 more due to be started in 2013 or 2014”.

Raising copper output forecast: On 8 October Mining Minister Hernán de Solminihac and Andrés MacLean, the executive vice president of Chile’s state copper commission (Cochilco), presented their latest report on the international copper market for 2013-2014. De Solminihac said that Chile, the world’s largest copper producer, was expected to produce around 5.7m tonnes (t) of copper this year, a record high and up 4.9% on 2012. In July, Cochilco had forecast that Chile’s output would reach 5.5mt. De Solminihac attributed the expected increase to improved production forecasts at key mines including Escondida, the world's largest mine, controlled by the multinational BHP Billiton. Cochilco also marginally raised its view for 2013 average cooper prices to US$3.32 per pound, up from US$3.27 in June. The improved forecast follows a better-than-expected performance on world markets in July-September, on the stability of the Chinese market and the (incipient) Eurozone recovery. De Solminihac added that the mining ministry maintained its 2014 copper price forecast at US$3.15 per pound. According to Cochilco, Chile’s copper exports were worth US$29.5m in 2012, accounting for 52% of the country’s total exports, down from 54% in 2011 and 56% in 2010.

Barrick ruling: On 25 September Chile’s supreme justice court upheld a July decision by a local appeals court suspending the operations in Chile of the Pascua-Lama gold mine, owned by the Canadian mining giant Barrick Gold, until the necessary infrastructure to protect the environment is in place. The mine straddles the Chile-Argentina border. In a statement issued the following day Barrick declared itself “pleased” with the 25 September ruling, which rejected an appeal presented by local indigenous communities for Barrick’s license to be revoked altogether on environmental grounds. The supreme court found that the measures ordered by the Copiapó appeals court were sufficient to protect constitutional guarantees. In April, the appeals court had ordered Barrick to suspend operations in Chile on environmental concerns, in response to a request filed in October 2012 by representatives of a local indigenous community (Diaguita), who claimed that the project threatened local water supplies and endangered three glaciers, Toro 1, Toro 2 and Esperanza. The project was approved in 2006 by the government led by Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006) and was managed by a Barrick subsidiary, Compañía Minera Nevada. On 11 October however, another appeals court admitted a fresh appeal seeking a new freeze on the mine on the grounds that Compañía Minera Nevada engaged in “illegal and arbitrary acts," in relation to the "installation, execution and realization of works and activities ... that were not authorized by the environmental regulator (SMA).” Barrick has yet to issue a response.

• Inflation

According to Chile’s national statistics institute (INE), the monthly consumer price index for September was 0.5%, bringing the accumulated year-to-date rate in 2013 to 1.9%. The inter-annual rate was 2.0%.

COLOMBIA | Bloque Caño Sur Este es comercialmente viable. En un comunicado de prensa de la compañía petrolera estatal de Colombia, Ecopetrol, anunció el 5 de diciembre la viabilidad de su bloque petrolero Caño Sur Este, en la provincia sudoriental de Meta, que tiene reservas probadas de unos 22,4m de barriles de petróleo.

El anuncio de Ecopetrol, el único propietario del bloque, se produjo después de seis años de exploración. De acuerdo con el comunicado, Ecopetrol planea perforar 135 pozos exploratorios e invertir US$656m en el bloque, con una producción estimada de 25.000 barriles para mediados del 2016.

El CEO de Ecopetrol, Javier Gutiérrez Pemberthy, dijo que el hallazgo “contribuiría a lograr la meta de producción de Ecopetrol de 1,0m de barriles limpios en el 2015”.

PERÚ | La OPI de Petroperú. El 9 de diciembre el ministro de economía y finanzas de Perú, Luis Miguel Castilla, confirmó que el gobierno liderado por el Presidente Ollanta Humala intenta lanzar al mercado el 49% de la compañía petrolera estatal, Petroperú. La movida ha causado conmoción, forzando a los ministros a negar que la venta sea equivalente a una privatización.

Aunque sin una mayoría en el congreso, la coalición gobernante Gana Perú ha logrado reunir suficiente apoyo entre los partidos más pequeños y se espera que la propuesta sea aprobada. Castilla también confirmó que el gobierno planea una modernización de la antigua refinería Talara, con una inversión de US$3,5mm, en la región norteña de Piura, una de las dos principales refinerías de Perú.

Presentando el proyecto de ley al congreso el 6 de diciembre, el Primer Ministro César Villanueva declaró que la oferta de Petroperú y las obras en la refinería Talara son “prioridad nacional”. El ministro de energía, Jorge Merino, negó que la Oferta Pública Inicial (OPI) en el mercado local conduzca a una privatización de Petroperú, señalando que el Estado retendrá la mayoría de las acciones.

Merino dijo que la actualización de Talara incrementaría su procesamiento del petróleo crudo a 95.000  barriles por día (bpd), de los actuales 65.000bpd, y permitirá una reducción en el contenido de sulfuros a 50 partes por millón de sus actuales 2.000 partes por millón. Del total de la inversión de US$3,49mm requeridos para la revisión total de Talara, el 78% será financiado por Petroperú, y el resto (22%) por compañías privadas a través de préstamos estructurados, bonos u otros instrumentos, agregó Merino.

De acuerdo con la Energy Information Administration (EIA) de EU, la producción de combustibles líquidos de Perú fue de un promedio de 172.000bpd en el 2012. Los costos de las importaciones se han elevado, llegando a US$3,6mm en el 2012.

El pasado abril, el Presidente Humala sugirió controversialmente que Petroperú podría adquirir acciones en otra importante refinería petrolera de Perú, La Pampilla, de la firma española de energía, Repsol. Humala fue forzado a echarse atrás después de que grandes protestas de la oposición política y el sector privado, liderado por la Confederación Nacional de Instituciones Empresariales Privadas (Confiep), acerca de la creciente intervención del Estado. El incidente dañó el sentimiento de los inversionistas en Perú, en un momento delicado, con un  crecimiento económico más lento debido al débil sector externo. Repsol ha dicho desde entonces que La Pampilla no está a la venta.

VENEZUELA-PARAGUAY | Aprobación del Mercosur al final. El senado de Paraguay aprobó por 29 votos a 10 la plena adhesión de Venezuela al Mercado Común del Sur (Mercosur). El protocolo de adhesión, enviado por el Presidente Horacio Cartes la semana pasada, ahora pasará a la cámara baja del congreso, donde se espera que también sea aprobado. El Presidente Cartes dijo que su decisión de enviar el instrumento al congreso era necesaria para evitar el “aislamiento” de Paraguay de sus vecinos.

El congreso de Paraguay había resueltamente rehusado a reconocer a Venezuela como un miembro formal del bloque durante la presidencia de Fernando Lugo (2008-2012) y objetaron la manera en que Venezuela ingresó al Mercosur poco después de que Paraguay fuera suspendido del bloque debido al juicio político a Lugo en junio del 2012. Sin embargo, Cartes disfruta de mucho más respaldo en el congreso de lo que Lugo pudo reunir.

Cartes había dicho que Paraguay no se movería hasta que todas las cuestiones resultantes de su suspensión política sean resueltas, en particular el ingreso “irregular” de Venezuela. La decisión se produjo un día después de que el nuevo jefe de gabinete de Argentina, Jorge Capitanich, hizo una visita a Asunción, donde según se supo él se reunión con Cartes para discutir la cuestión. El canciller de Paraguay, Eladio Loizaga, negó públicamente que Argentina haya ejercido presión sobre Paraguay para que acepte la adhesión de Venezuela.

• Conversaciones con la Unión Europea

El secretario general de la cancillería brasilera, Eduardo Dos Santos, dijo que la votación en el senado de Paraguay era positiva para las conversaciones sobre el acuerdo de asociación del Mercosur con la Unión Europea (UE). Paraguay representará al Mercosur en la próxima ronda de conversaciones con la UE. Venezuela no es parte de las negociaciones UE-Mercosur.

CHILE-BRAZIL | Cooperation and investment agreement. Last week Chile’s foreign ministry released a statement announcing that Chile and Brazil had signed a bilateral investment cooperation and facilitation agreement (ACFI), the first such accord between the two countries. According to the statement, the accord was signed by Chile’s foreign minister, Heraldo Muñoz, and Brazil’s industry, development & foreign trade minister, Armando Monteiro, who was on an official visit to Santiago.

• Brazil-Chile accord

The new Brazil-Chile cooperation and investment agreement seeks to promote and facilitate bilateral investment through the establishment of special treatment for investors and investment, and institutional cooperation. Brazil’s industry, development & foreign trade minister, Armando Monteiro, said the accord represents an “extraordinarily important step, which will create an institutional environment more receptive to the establishment of companies in both countries”.

PARAGUAY-URUGUAY | New bilateral local currency payment system. On 26 November the president of Paraguay’s central bank (BCP), Carlos Fernández Valdovinos and the president of the central bank of Uruguay (BCU), Mario Bergara, undersigned a new bilateral payment system agreement (SML) that will allow for transactions made between the two countries to be carried out in each other’s local currency.

A BCP statement said that the signing of the agreement – which came during the 30^th meeting of South American central bank presidents held in Asunción – was important in the process of “integrating and strengthening the existing links between the two institutions”. The new agreement should also help to strengthen bilateral economic and financial integration between the two Southern Common Market (Mercosur) founding member countries.

As the director of the BCP’s statistical department, Walter Zárate, explained “the objective of the agreement is to reduce the costs of transactions and diminish the implicit costs associated with exchanging currencies by avoiding having to go through the US dollar”. Zárate went on to say that the SML will support any kind of transaction between individuals or corporations, such as money transfers and trade operations, are made in the local currency of each recipient country.

The BCP has also highlighted that the agreement is within Mercosur’s framework of promoting deepening economic integration among its members; and that in the future similar arrangements could be made with Argentina and Brazil.

Significantly, the deal was signed after Uruguay’s finance & economy minister, Danilo Astori, conducted an official two-day visit to Paraguay on 24 and 25 November in which he met President Horacio Cartes.

A new influence-trafficking scandal implicating President Evo Morales has cast further doubt on his chances of victory ahead of the 21 February referendum on whether to change the constitution to allow him to run for a third consecutive presidential term in 2019 (under the 2009 constitution). With Vice President Alvaro García Linera admitting last month that official corruption – most notably that uncovered a year ago in the government indigenous development fund (Fondioc) [WR-15-12] – had damaged the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS)’s campaign, the latest scandal has already had a tangible impact on pre-electoral surveys, raising major doubts over a victory for the ‘yes’ vote.

The scandal broke on 3 February when a local journalist, Carlos Valverde, revealed on a local TV channel Activa TV, that Gabriela Zapata Montaño, a manager at the local branch of Chinese firm CAMC, had had a relationship with President Morales that began in 2005 but ended two years later after the two had a child that subsequently died. Valverde’s claims regarding the relationship, which were quickly picked up by the local media and which the MAS government has confirmed, led the political opposition to both accuse Morales of using his position to get Zapata the job and more generally of influence trafficking regarding the awarding of state contracts to CAMC. On 10 February the opposition party, Unidad Demócrata (UD), of local cement magnate Samuel Doria Medina, claimed that of the seven contracts awarded to CAMC by the MAS government, six – worth US$470m – were via direct invitation.

With CAMC itself having announced legal action against Valverde and called for an investigation into his claims, the MAS government is also seeking to clear Morales’ name. On 7 February Public Works Minister Milton Claros revealed that the previous month the government had cancelled a contract awarded to CAMC for the construction of a stretch of the Montero-Bulo Bulo railroad track after the company failed to deliver, citing this as evidence of impartiality, while three days later, Morales asked the comptroller general’s office (CGE) and a special legislative commission to investigate the allegations. These efforts are ultimately unlikely to have much impact ahead of the vote, however, as García Linera himself has said that the investigation by the legislative commission is likely to take at least six months.

Growing support for the ‘no’ vote

Since the scandal broke, several surveys have been released which point to an electoral defeat for Morales on 21 February – the third such defeat in a year following the 29 March 2015 municipal and regional elections [WR-15-13] and September 2015 referendums on autonomy statutes held in the departments of La Paz, Cochabamba, Chuquisaca, Potosí and Oruro [WR-15-39].

On 14 February, the local press published the findings of a flash survey by pollster Mercados y Muestras of 600 people in the eponymous departmental capitals of La Paz, Cochabamba and Santa Cruz, along with El Alto city in La Paz department which indicated a clear victory for the ‘no’ vote (although as ever it is worth highlighting that support for Morales is traditionally lower in urban areas). That poll put the ‘no’ vote at 47%, the ‘yes’ vote at 28% and undecideds/those declining to say at 25%. A survey by Mercados y Muestras of the same cities prior to the scandal had put support for the ‘no’ vote at 40%, with 33% inclined towards a ‘yes’ vote and 27% undecided/unwilling to say.

Another poll, by Equipos Mori, showed a tie between the ‘yes’ and ‘no’ votes at 40%, with 18% undecided/declined to say. The Equipos Mori poll interviewed 2,368 people in both rural and urban areas. A previous Equipos Mori poll, released on 17 January, had put the ‘yes’ vote at 41%, the ‘no’ vote at 37% and those undecided/declining to say at 19%.

• Six dead in El Alto fire

On 17 February six municipal employees died from asphyxiation after protesters set fire to part of a municipal building in El Alto city (whose mayor is Soledad Chapetón of the opposition centre-right Unidad Nacional, UN). The fire was started by protesters calling for better schools and more teachers. Interior Minister Carlos Romero confirmed that four people had been arrested while Bolivia’s human rights ombudsman has called for a full investigation into the incident.