Development: On 1 December President Hugo Chávez said that a
fresh referendum on a constitutional reform allowing for indefinite presidential
re-election could be held as soon as February 2009.
Significance: Only a week after the government
suffered some important losses in regional elections (held on 23 November),
President Chávez 's fresh bid for re-election is controversial to say the least.
Exactly a year ago (2 December 2007), Chávez suffered his first ever
electoral defeat when the public narrowly voted against (49%-51%) a set of
constitutional reform proposals, including one to allow him to run again once
his current term (his second consecutive mandate under the 1999 constitution)
ends in 2012.
President Chávez signalled yesterday (1 December) that the “battle for the
amendment" would begin immediately. He instructed his Partido Socialista Unido
de Venezuela (PSUV) to begin the process of preparing the text of the
amendment and said that he intended to put it to a vote as quickly as possible,
indicating a potential date of February 2009.
The president acknowledged failings in the previous December 2007 vote,
suggesting it was too complicated. The new consultation, he said, would be very
simple, just a single article.
The opposition, emboldened by its recent poll wins in key states like Miranda
(and the municipality of Caracas) has cried foul, arguing that the president is
“putting on a show" in order to keep electoral tensions high and distract the
population from his government's failure to address key issues like run-away
inflation, rising crime and insecurity and the likelihood of a tough year to
come for the economy, amid a sharp drop in global oil prices (upon which the
Chávez administration relies for over half its fiscal revenues).
Yesterday (1 December) the president of the rightwing opposition party
Acción Democrática (AD), Víctor Bolívar, said that “President Chávez is in a
hurry to begin consultations on the constitutional reform to seek indefinite
re-election because he knows that he has lost popular support and that his image
will deteriorate even further as an economic crisis takes hold in 2009".
A local coordinator for the opposition Primero Justicia commented that
“Chávez has reached the ceiling of his popularity and he has a sell-by date".
The AD leader added, “Chávez knows that that he will not win the referendum
but he thinks he has nothing to lose. What he is seeking to do is create
confrontation and distract the focus of attention away from his bad government
and the economic crisis".
Certainly, such tactics are well worn by Chávez and typically they work in
his favour, by heightening emotions and polarising the electorate into firm pro-
and anti- Chávez camps. On Monday (1 December) the president declared that there
could be “no Chavismo without Chávez " and that his continuation in power would
be “decisive" in order to continue with the Bolivarian Socialist Revolution.
Any election thus becomes an all-or-nothing plebiscite on the president
himself, who, despite the growing economic problems on the ground, remains
popular (his popularity rating is at 58%, according to the most recent
surveys).
The opposition argues that the government may not technically be permitted to
hold a fresh referendum. Article 435 of Chávez 's 1999 Constitution states that
any reform initiative not approved cannot be put forward again in the same
constitutional period. The PSUV responds that legally the initiative will be a
brand new reform, as it will be put forward by the National Assembly and not (as
in 2007) by the President.
Under the constitution, once the required signatures have been gathered, the
proposal can be put forward by 30% of the members of the unicameral National
Assembly (which is almost entirely dominated by Chavistas); by 15% of the
electorate; or by the president himself.