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Development: A new opinion poll, by Mori, published on 23 July, put Sebastián Piñera, the right wing candidate for the presidency, far ahead of his two main rivals.

Significance: The poll, which put  Piñera on 43% in the first round, is bad news for Eduardo Frei, the candidate for the ruling Concertación. He is on just 21%. The worrying thing from Frei's point of view is that according to Mori his support is shrinking, while Piñera is rising again. Previous polls had both leading candidates shedding support to the independent socialist candidate, Marco Enrí­quez-Ominami.

Mori has Enrí­quez-Ominami on 13% support for the first round. The worry for Frei is that even if he reaches a second round, his support is unlikely to grow much, leaving Piñera to coast to victory.

The elections are on 13 December 2009.

Measuring the arms flow from the US to Mexico

The US is not the source for more than 90% of the firearms seized from criminals by the Mexican authorities. That, at least, is the message the US gun lobby has been pressing since March, when the US Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) appeared to confirm the claim the Mexican government had been making for some time, and even more since President Barack Obama echoed it. The gun lobby is right to the extent that the claim has never been proven — but overlooks the fact that it has not been disproven, and that a more precise determination of how many arms do come from the US is becoming increasingly probable.

The ATF had not, in effect, confirmed the Mexican claim. What had been said by an ATF special agent, William Newell, in testimony to the House of  Representatives Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies on 24 March, was that '90% of the firearms recovered in Mexico, and which are then successfully traced, were determined to have originated from various sources within the continental US.'

The qualifying phrase is all-important: the 90% does not refer to all firearms seized in Mexico, or even to all those which Mexico asked the ATF to trace, but only to those which had been successfully traced.

More precise information obtained from the ATF by FactCheck.org in April revealed that 10,347 firearms seized in FY2007 and FY2008 had been traced to the US, representing 95% and 93%, respectively, of the firearms submitted for tracing.

Mexican submissions for tracing have been increasing rapidly: 3,312 in FY2007, 7,743 in FY2008 and 7,500 in the first half of FY2009. This reflects an even sharper increase in the number of weapons the Mexican authorities have been seizing. It is not easy to make sense of Mexican tallies. The federal chief prosecutor's office, the PGR, has reported a total of 35,943 firearms seized since President Felipe Calderón took office in December 2006: 9,972 to the end of 2007, 20,915 in 2008 and 5,056 in the first three months of 2009.

The defence ministry (Sedena), has reported army seizures of 30,576 firearms since December 2006: 5,174 to end-2007, 14,774 in 2008 and 10,628 in the first half of 2009.

Sedena, however, claims that its total of 30,576 is equivalent to 53.6% of total seizures by all agencies, which would put that overall total just above 57,000. This is hard to reconcile with the PGR data, but both sets of figures do show parallel upward trends. By all accounts, data sharing with the US, including use of the eTrace system to determine provenance, is on a similar rising curve.

Apart from the difficulty of reconciling Mexican statistics that use varying timeframes (they are not published regularly but tend to surface in response to congressional or freedom-of-information requests), there is the added difficulty that Mexican agencies mix calendar years with totals during a sexenio (the six-year presidential term) which adds one month to the first calendar year and subtracts one from the last. This, of course, does not match the US custom of using the October-September fiscal year as the most common frame of reference for data. Harmonising data collection and presentation is one of the tasks the two countries' law-enforcement establishments have set themselves.

Development: On 10 October, the government of President Evo Morales announced it had already achieved its coca eradication goal of 5,064ha for 2009.

Significance: The government's timely attainment of the internationally agreed target endorses boasts by the Morales administration that it is enjoying better success in its antidrugs efforts since the expulsion of the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in late 2008. Since then, cooperation has come from Brazil and Argentina.

The government's announcement that it had met the eradication goal follows reports of record drugs seizures and the dismantling of cocaine processing labs. The government boasted that 308 kilos of cocaine had been seized and 3,200 cocaine labs destroyed so far this year, including the biggest laboratory ever discovered in Bolivia, in the eastern opposition region of Santa Cruz.

Bolivia's drugs policy remains a major factor in the continued diplomatic difficulties between the US and Bolivia. The US takes issue with La Paz over its policy of “zero cocaine but not zero coca", based on the distinction between the illegal narcotic, cocaine and the raw coca leaf - an important symbol of indigenous culture. Current legislation allows the legal cultivation of 12,000ha of coca, but the government believes that 20,000ha is more reasonable.

The US points to the latest report by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) which showed coca cultivation in Bolivia up by 6% in 2008 and potential cocaine production up by 9% as evidence that it is ultimately failing in its efforts.

Development: Two polls published on 21 November gave the presidential candidate for the left-leaning Frente Amplio (FA) coalition, José Mujica, a solid lead six to eight point lead over his rival Luis Alberto Lacalle, of the centre-right opposition Partido Nacional (PN), in the 29 November second round run-off

Significance: Mujica has maintained a more or less steady lead since his first round victory on 25 October. Both pollsters predict that, barring a major upset, he should win comfortably on Sunday.

The two polls, by Interconsult and Equipos Mori, put support for Mujica on 48% and 50% respectively, to 42% for Lacalle, with an error-margin of 2.0%-3.0%. Lacalle, who mustered 29% in the first round, has been unable to exceed this 42% threshold since October. This is despite the support of the second main opposition party, the centre-right Partido Colorado (PC), which is calling on the 17% of voters that backed it in October to rally behind Lacalle. The problem for Lacalle is that not all of these voters are diehard Colorados and so at least some are expected to transfer their support to Mujica in the runoff.

Interconsult reckons that there are 7% of undecided voters and 3% who will vote blank. Equipos Mori, the pollster that predicted most accurately the outcome of the 25 October first round, puts the number of undecided voters slightly lower, at 4%, with a further 4% expected to cast a blank vote. This means that even if there is a last minute swing towards Lacalle, it would be unlikely to do enough to dislodge Mujica.

Mujica won the first round with 47.96% of the vote. Although this was short of the simple majority needed to avoid a run-off, it has secured him a slim majority in congress.

Development: On 12 January a US district judge, Thomas Griesa, froze US$1.7m of Argentina's central bank reserves held in the US Federal Reserve.

Significance:  The surprise ruling intensifies the crisis sparked by government plans to use reserves to pay off foreign debt and could provide a precedent for further asset seizures. Most worryingly for the government, it could complicate the launch of a debt swap planned for the end of the month, which would give Argentina much-needed access to market finance for the first time since the 2001-2002 default crisis.

Griesa's ruling was made at the request of two so-called vulture funds, which hold bonds still unpaid since Argentina's US$100bn debt default in 2001. The freeze comes amid a crisis caused by President Cristina Fernández's attempt to fire by decree the head of the central bank, Martí­n Redrado, over his refusal to transfer US$6.6bn of the country's reserves into a 'bicentennial fund' to finance 2010 debt repayments. The day after the decree was issued a federal judge, Marí­a José Sarmiento, ordered his reinstatement, which the government immediately appealed. The situation is likely to remain in gridlock until the end of the week, when Sarmiento is expected to rule on the government's appeal. 

The freeze should boost Redrado's position and further weaken that of Fernández: the central bank governor claimed that his refusal to comply with the presidential decree was due to fears that reserves might be frozen in just such a legal action by hold outs. 

While the amount of the asset-freeze is small (Argentine reserves total US$48bn) it may have wider implications. The government is planning to make a new offer to the 'hold-outs' - holders of some US$20bn in defaulted bonds that refused to participate in a 2005 debt restructure - at the end of the month. The economy minister, Amado Boudou, said yesterday that the freeze was “damaging" the debt swap but insisted that “it remains on track". 

The fall-out from the freeze was immediately felt on the stock market, prompting the biggest sell off of Argentine bonds in weeks and a two percent fall in the Merval stock index.

Meanwhile, Vice President and senate chief Julio Cobos - estranged from the government since mid-2008 - met yesterday (12 January) with opposition leaders. They agreed to try to convene Congress - officially in recess until March - earlier than scheduled to discuss the dispute. Fernández claimed an opposition conspiracy to destabilise her government was underway.

Development: On 24 February the death toll from terrorist incidents over the previous 24 hours hit 40. Simultaneously, the US Security for Homeland Security said that the Mexican government had lost control of Ciudad Juárez, while the Washington Post reported that the US was about to deploy its own security and intelligence agents in Mexico.

Significance: What makes the conjunction of these events and statements politically dangerous is that the bulk of the killings were not, for once, in Ciudad Juárez, which abuts El Paso on the Texas border.

Of those deaths reported on 24 February, 13 occurred in the southern state of Oaxaca, where political, rather than drug-related conflict, is the main source of violence. The state authorities in Tamaulipas, on the Caribbean coast, ordered the police to check all vehicles entering and leaving towns after a wave of violence over the past week, probably drug related, left 19 people dead. The third major incident was an assault by gang members on the town hall at China, in the state of Nuevo León, which left two police officers dead.

The statement by Janet Napolitano, the Homeland Security minister, on Ciudad Juárez was damming. Testifying to the US Senate Homeland Security committee, she said that the rule of law did not exist in Ciudad Juárez. She was commenting about her trip to Mexico last week where she met President Felipe Calderón and his interior minister, Fernando Gómez Mont. She said the situation in Mexico “worried us a lot", though she continued to praise the government's anti crime efforts.

Napolitano went on to say that although the Mexican government had dispatched a further 2,700 [federal] police officers to Ciudad Juárez, the US “did not know if this will be enough". The US stood ready, Napolitano said, to use “all its available tools" to work with the Mexican government in the border city.

There is a growing suspicion in Washington that the US is being sucked into assisting, rather than just supporting, the Mexican government in its efforts to confront the unrest. On 24 February Washington Post reported that the US was planning to “embed American intelligence agents in Mexican law enforcement units". The Mexican government denied that this was either happening or planned.

The Mexican government line is that any US help will be advisory only, and not in an executive capacity. The US ambassador to Mexico, Carlos Pascual, emphasised this point at a press conference yesterday when asked about the Post's report: “The US has no operational security forces in Mexico. ... What we do have are people working as advisers to share information, intelligence and experience between the two countries. This is absolutely normal, and it's something that we have done for a long time."

Napolitano testified that the drug gangs based in Mexico already had “their fingers" in several communities in the US and the US had to respond to ensure its own security.

The big problem in Mexico is that although drug gang violence is the most murderous sort of violence, it is not the only sort. What is happening in Oaxaca, where radical leftwingers seized and occupied the centre of the state capital in 2006 and eventually had to be ejected by 5,000 federal policemen after almost six months, is equally alarming. There is a key election for the state governorship in Oaxaca on 4 July this year.

The 13 victims in Oaxaca were all killed in the small municipality of San Vicente Camalote. Reportedly, their killers drove in from the neighbouring state of Veracruz. They first killed three state policemen who tried to intercept them and another three civilians. They then went on to attack an estate owned by the local Maciel family, where they killed another four people. They then beat off and killed three more police officers sent in pursuit. It seems that the killers escaped, probably back to Veracruz.  What makes the killings noteworthy is that Adán Maciel Sosa is the Partido Acción Nacional candidate for the mayor of Acatlán de Pérez Figueroa.

Development:  The still strongly Roman Catholic Latin America has not been immune from the multitude of sexual abuse scandals affecting the RC church; however local church leaders have strictly towed the Vatican line.

Significance:  On 2 April (Good Friday), the Latin American Bishops Conference (CELAM) issued a statement in solidarity with the holy father, Pope Benedict XVI, in which it stated that the recent allegations that the pope was complicit in covering up sexual abuse allegations on his watch as Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger of Germany were “baseless" and “calumnious". It asked the Latin American faithful to pray for the pope against these unjust allegations, which it noted, “called to mind the sufferings of Jesus Christ".

This week the English-language Honduras Weekly reported on the cases of two alleged paedophile priests (one Chilean, one North American) who were apparently “re-assigned" to Honduras some years ago by their superiors amid abuse allegations. The Chilean priest - José Andrés Aguirre (known as 'Cura Tato', now serving a 12-year prison sentence in Chile) was a member of the Catholic Order, the Legion of Christ, founded by Fr. Marcial Maciel Degollado in 1941. In March, the order admitted that Fr. Maciel (who died in 2008) had a long history of sexually abusing young boys and seminarians and had fathered seven children. The case has been a huge scandal in Mexico amid reports that the Vatican ignored the rumours for years.

The North American (now-ex) priest Ernesto Garcí­a Rubio asked for a transfer to Honduras in 1989, but the local Tegucigalpa diocese was not told of his history. His whereabouts are now unknown, according to Honduras Weekly.

Other similar cases in the region have made the headlines lately. In June last year, a well-known Argentine priest, Father Julio Grassi, was sentenced to 15 years in prison for sexually abusing a boy at his 'Happy Children' foundation. In March, Chilean courts sentenced José Angel Arregui, a Spanish teacher and lay member of the San Viator order, to 26 months in prison for possessing child pornography showing Spanish students and infants. He arrived in Chile in 2008 and was arrested in August 2009. He may be extradited back to Spain.

Cardinal Archbishop of Santiago Francisco Javier Errázuriz admitted on state TV on Easter Sunday (4 April) that the Chilean church is investigating “just a few" paedophilia cases, while Brazilians were scandalised in March after a video allegedly showing one of three priests (an 82-year old) having sex with 19-year old man was shown on local TV. All three are suspended pending an investigation.

After the primate of Mexico, Cardinal Norberto Rivera, acknowledged these “abominable" acts during Holy Week, the leading daily Reforma slated him for his belatedness.

Meanwhile, in an echo of recent ('unofficial') Vatican statements alleging a vast conspiracy akin to anti Semitism, the archbishop of San José, Hugo Barrantes, condemned “an anti-Catholic media campaign".

Development: On 18 May the VI European Union-Latin America and the Caribbean Summit concluded.

Significance: Somewhat surprisingly, President Cristina Fernández de Kircher from Argentina set the tone for the final day with a heartfelt plea to European governments that they should look after Latin American migrants during the current economic downturn. Spain's Prime Minister, José Luis Rodrí­guez Zapatero, immediately responded saying that the message had been received and understood.

There is more than a tinge of anti-Americanism to the Europeans' response: governments in both Latin America and the EU have noted Arizona's move towards criminalising migrants. Spain has at least 4.8m migrants, and perhaps has many as 6m (out of a population of 44m) if undocumented migrants are taken into account. Among migrants in Spain, the unemployment rate has shot up in the past 12 months from 8.9% to 22.3%, as the economy has run into severe problems. Although Spain claimed that its economy grew in the first quarter of 2010, it still has a national unemployment rate of over 20%.

The sudden eruption of migration issues into the summit clearly pained some of the participants. The president of Chile, Sebastián Piñera, was almost dismissive of the summit, saying in a press conference that it had been a bit of a disappointment. Piñera said that the summit was “tackling old issues in old ways". He promised that the next summit, which will be held in Chile in 2012, will be more of a 21st Century affair. This century's great challenges, according to Piñera, are: achieving “intelligent growth"; creating a knowledge economy and information-rich society which is sustainable and inclusive; and crafting a society capable of abolishing poverty and excludes no-one.

Piñera said that he agreed with France's President Nicolas Sarkozy, the most senior EU politician to attend the summit, in that “we have to go forward at a different rhythm and at a different speed." Piñera argued that the international community needed to overhaul (or re-engineer) international organisations such as the IMF, the World Bank and the UN, which, he pointed out, were created 60 years ago in a world that was very different to today's.

The summit was attended by 60 government representatives from all three regions as well as outsiders such as Recept Tayip Erdogan, the prime minister of Turkey. Its most substantive achievement was to set up a new 'European Union-Latin America and Caribbean Foundation'. The foundation was mooted at the previous summit in Lima in 2008 and is, essentially, another talking shop aimed at getting the countries involved in the discussion of international issues. The new foundation will have a heavy involvement from NGOs, and, apparently, a budget from the European Commission for seminars, conferences, publications and research projects. It is not clear where it will be based.

Pointer: Honduras's president, Porfirio Lobo, only set out for the summit yesterday (18 May). Honduras's representation at the summit, according to President Fernando Lugo of Paraguay, was the reason President Hugo Chávez of Venezuela refused to attend. Chávez , along with several other countries, still refuses to restore diplomatic relations with Honduras after the June 2009 coup that removed Manuel Zelaya. Lobo came to Madrid to sign the association agreement reached by the EU and six Central American countries. The deal is the first the EU has signed with a regional bloc.

Development: On 25 June Ulser Pillpa, a student and recent Sendero Luminoso (SL) deserter, who exchanged information on the SL for his freedom, fled and was then recaptured by police in Huanta, near to the southern city of Ayacucho.

Significance: Pillpa claimed that SL has a substantial support network that is not just limited to the areas in which the group operates. His statements appear to consolidate recent media claims that SL is not in retreat. If his evidence is proven correct then the Peruvian government has a serious problem on its hands. Local analysts argue that the recent higher visibility of the SL will affect the way Peruvians vote in the coming regional elections on 3 October and the subsequent presidential elections in April 2011.

Pillpa's testimony relates to the terrorist cell operating in the valleys of the River Apurí­mac and Erne (Vrae) in southern Peru, allegedly run by Ví­ctor Quispe Palomino - alias 'camarada José'. He allegedly gave the police the details of dozens of individuals in the SL support network. The list included local teachers, students, university professors, local community leaders, some municipal officials and narco-traffickers. In particular, he emphasised the links between La Universidad de San Cristóbal de Huamanga (UNSCH) and the SL, highlighting how SL recruits students.

According to Pillpa, and worryingly for the government, the SL has plenty of access to sophisticated modern technology and expensive equipment. Its use of solar-powered lap top computers, USB memory sticks, printers and 4x4 vehicles are not the hallmarks of a terrorist organisation on its knees, as the government likes to claim. The continued links between the SL and its imprisoned members may also worry the authorities. Yesterday (24 June), manuscripts, USBs, mobile phones, SIM cards and micro chips were found in the cell of an ex-senderista, Maritza Garrido Lecca, who is an inmate in the women's prison, Chorillos.

Development: In a questionnaire released by the US senate committee on foreign relations on 4 August, the nominated US ambassador to Venezuela, Larry Palmer, criticised the Venezuelan armed forces for their low morale.

Significance: On 4 August the Venezuelan defence minister, General Carlos Mata, said that Palmer, a professional diplomat, should “take his rant elsewhere."  In a statement released by the Venezuelan ministry for foreign affairs the government announced that it had asked for an explanation from the US government for the “unacceptable comments" made by Palmer. The Venezuelan government will “take a decision about the issue" after these discussions.

No indications were given as to what this “decision" would be, but the chances of Venezuela refusing Palmer are rising. In 2008 President Hugo Chávez expelled the ambassador Patrick Duddy from the country in a show of solidarity with Bolivia, after President Evo Morales, firmly allied with Chávez , kicked out the US ambassador to La Paz, accusing him of inciting opposition-led violence. Duddy was allowed to return to Caracas in 2009.

Palmer's statement contained a plethora of criticisms of Venezuela. He described the morale of the Venezuelan military as “particularly low, especially due to politically motivated appointments" and that “the armed forces suffer problems in the maintenance of their equipment, with potentially serious consequences." The training of Venezuelan military officers in Cuba also came in for criticism from Palmer, as did Chávez 's politics, which he described as eliminating the separation of powers and bypassing local involvement in politics.

Palmer was forthcoming about his views on the presence of the Colombian paramilitary group Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc) in Venezuela. He said he was “keenly aware of the clear ties between members of the Venezuelan government" and Farc, and that “the Venezuelan government has been unwilling to prevent Colombian guerrillas from entering and establishing camps in Venezuela." The more non-committal official response from the US State Department is that the allegations by the Colombian government should be taken “very seriously."

Palmer was nominated by President Barack Obama on 29 June to become US ambassador to Venezuela and his nomination hearing took place on 27 July. The controversial comments were made in a questionnaire sent to Palmer by Richard Lugar, the senior Republican on the Senate's foreign relations committee. Palmer's nomination was not considered in a committee meeting on 3 August in which the appointments of ambassadors to other South American countries, including Colombia and Peru, were confirmed. As the senate begins its summer recess on 6 August Palmer's appointment will not be confirmed until September.

Development: On 12 September, the senate's constitutional committee agreed, in an extraordinary Sunday session, to hold two debates on 14 September to consider the government's proposals to amend the anti-terrorism law.

Significance: Several senators admit that the government proposals to amend the antiterrorism and military justice laws do not go far enough to meet the demands of 34 Mapuches who have now been on hunger strike for almost two months. The Mapuches want direct negotiations with the government: on 10 September, the health minister, Jaime Mañalich, became the first member of the government to have direct contact with the hunger strikers when he visited one of them, Pedro Cheuque, in a hospital in Temuco. On 11 September the presidents of both houses of congress set up working parties to try to end the Mapuches' protests.

The Mapuches want the government to stop using the anti-terrorism law, introduced during the Pinochet dictatorship, against them. They, along with a lot of human rights experts, claim that they are being prosecuted for political activism and direct action which they say is not the same as terrorism. The anti-terrorism law allows suspects to be held for two years without being charged; limits the rights of the defence; allows suspects to be tried by both civil and military courts   and evidence to be given anonymously and unchallenged.  

Mañalich, who has also been heading the government's efforts to support the 33 miners trapped 700m underground in northern Chile, said that it would be an “extraordinarily sad event if one of the hunger strikers died". He agreed that Mapuches suffering from the effects of their hunger strike should be allowed traditional Mapuche treatment, as well as conventional medicines.

The changes proposed by the government would reduce the charges against most of the Mapuches in prison. Instead of being charged with terrorism, they would face the offence of arson, which carries much less harsh penalties. The government is also prepared to allow witnesses giving evidence in terrorist cases to be cross-examined.

Development: On 19 October, the 50th anniversary of the imposition of the US economic embargo on Cuba, President Barack Obama signalled in a White House press conference with Hispanic media that his government is happy to leave US Cuba relations on the back burner for now.

Significance: Obama indicated that Cuba, which has recently begun a process that could lead to the release of all the political prisoners on the island and last month announced the biggest shake up of its Communist economy in decades, needed to do more, leaving the ball firmly in Havana's court. This wait-and-see approach suits Obama right now. US policy towards Cuba is largely dictated by the domestic agenda and with the ruling Democrats heading into congressional elections in which the conservative right-wing faction of the opposition Republican Party is expected to sweep up, now is not the time for politically risky gestures towards the government led by President Raúl Castro. However, the window of opportunity to turn the page on US Cuba relations is closing fast heading into 2011. In all likelihood, the next window will only open in 2012, when Obama (and the Democrats) will be seeking re-election.

"I think that any release of political prisoners, any economic liberalization that takes place in Cuba is positive, positive for Cuban people, but we've not yet seen the full results of these promises. There are still too many political prisoners in Cuba that are languishing in jails only because they have differing views from the Cuban regime. We already initiated some significant changes...But before we take further steps...we want to see that in fact the Castro regime is serious about a different approach...And our guiding light in judging whether or not they're serious about that different approach is libertad; whether there's greater freedom inside of Cuba", Obama said.

Upon taking office in 2008, Obama signalled a willingness to broach the Cuba issue, including the embargo. In a savvy and politically cost free initial gesture, he removed the strict family travel and remittance restrictions imposed by his right-wing conservative Republican predecessor George W. Bush (2000-2008), sought to promote US telecommunications links with the island and initiated low level bilateral talks on some areas of mutual interest like migration and direct mail service. Subsequent to that, bipartisan groups led by the US agri sector began lobbying congress to unpick the embargo so as to promote agri-based trade with Cuba.  

In August, the White House appeared to signal that Obama was preparing to relax other Bush era restrictions on non-tourist travel to allow more specialist academics, religious and cultural groups, journalists and business people to visit the island, again a measure that would revert US Cuba policy to where it was under the administration of Bill Clinton (1992-2000).  

Inevitably, this move would have been interpreted as a reciprocal gesture by Obama towards Havana in light of its moves to release political prisoners.

It never happened and the reason is purely electoral. The Miami press widely had it that leading Democrat party senators, such as Robert Menendez (NJ), asked Obama to hold off on any announcement until after the 3 November elections, fearing that it would have a negative impact on their prospects.

Likewise, the bipartisan efforts in congress have also stalled ahead of the elections. Two separate bills currently before the US congress - one in the lower house and one in the Senate -   would effectively lift the US travel ban to Cuba by non-Cuban American US citizens in its entirety and would put in place conditions to facilitate US agri-exports to Cuba. The Chairman of the House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, Howard Berman (D-CA), announced on 28 September that a pending vote on the lower house bill (scheduled for 29 September) had been indefinitely postponed.

If conservative Republicans take control of the congress, the well known pro-embargo Cuban American legislator Ileana Ros-Lehtinen (R-Fl) is touted to take charge of the Foreign Affairs Committee. She is firmly against the Berman bill. With that in mind, lobbyists for business and farm groups are preparing what The Hill describes as a “blitz" to try to get the bill back on the agenda and approved in the 'lame duck' session between November and January. The National Farmers Union, the US Chamber of Commerce, the National Foreign Trade Council and the National Pork Producers Council are all planning to lobby lawmakers to take up the bill. The House Agriculture Committee voted 25-20 in its favour a few months ago, but there is no guarantee of its approval on the main floor.

Development: On 5 December, the Chilean government confirmed that it would not proceed with a deal put to the previous government to restore Bolivia's sovereign access to the Pacific.

Significance: Alfredo Moreno, the foreign minister, said that Chile could not agree to allow Bolivia a sovereign corridor to the Pacific which would divide Chile. Moreno said that the government of President Sebastián Piñera had an open mind on how to restore Bolivia's access to the Pacific, lost in the War of the Pacific (1879-1882), but would not do anything that undermines Chile's interests.

According to documents revealed by La Tercera, a Santiago newspaper, the previous government of President Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010) had considered granting Bolivia a sovereign enclave at Tarapacá, near Iquique, on which Bolivia could build a new port. The Bolivian government, apparently, sent the terms of such an agreement (which the two countries had been negotiating since 2006) to Chile in December 2009. The timing was peculiarly 'maladroit' because Chile was between rounds of the presidential election. President Bachelet baulked at signing the Tarapacá agreement.

President Piñera backtracked on it and prefers the idea of granting Bolivia a non-sovereign 7km wide corridor north of the Lluta River. This corridor would run alongside Chile's border with Peru.

Peru may need to agree to this deal since a 1929 treaty stipulates that Peru needs to be consulted if Chile decides to grant any territory which was previously Peruvian to a third country. Peru and Chile are currently enmeshed in a dispute over their maritime border at the International Court of Justice at The Hague.

Development: On 26 January, Colombia's minister of defence, Rodrigo Rivera, and Venezuela's minister of interior and justice,  Tarek el Aissami, signed a bilateral accord pledging cooperation in the fight against narco-trafficking.

Significance: The agreement is the result of talks that began in November last and is testament to the renewed diplomatic relationship between the two countries. The commitment to cooperate against drug trafficking is not only crucial for President Juan Manuel Santos if he is to succeed in his attempts to defeat Colombia's large narco-trafficking groups but it's also a positive move domestically for President Hugo Chávez , who faces another presidential election in 2012. Concerns about violent crime persistently tops surveys of Venezuelan voters.

Key points:

Under the new accord Colombia and Venezuela will exchange intelligence information with the aim of identifying and dismantling narco trafficking groups.

Both countries will develop a system to control the trade in precursor substances to limit the volume of drugs produced. They will also seek to develop a joint mechanism to prevent money laundering and boost cooperation in drug abuse prevention and addict treatment programs.

The agreement does not permit the crossing of borders “in hot pursuit", but the armed forces will be able to exchange information that enables the other country to carry out interdiction operations by land, air or sea, without violating each other's sovereignty.

On 26 January, Ecuadorean forces raided a cocaine lab in the coastal province of Guayas, arresting four Colombians in charge of refining Peruvian cocaine base. When asked if Colombia was negotiating a similar agreement with Ecuador, Rivera replied “no comment".

Development: On 17 March Fanmi Lavalas, the party of exiled former president Jean-Bertrand Aristide (1991, 1994-1996, 2001-2004) told the international press that Aristide will return to Haiti within the next “24 or 48 hours".

Significance: With just three days until the 20 March presidential run-off between Mirlande Manigat, of the opposition Rassemblement des Démocrates Nationaux Progressistes (RNDP), and pop-star Michel Martelly ('Sweet Micky'), the prospect of Aristide's return, which is opposed by the US, adds further uncertainty to the election. Aristide's Fanmi Lavalas, is, probably, the most popular party in Haiti but has been excluded by the provisional electoral council (CEP) from participating in recent elections. Aristide's return could well prompt a lower voter turnout if Fanmi Lavalas suddenly calls for boycott, as it did in the 2009 elections from which it was barred.

Key points:

Both candidates have opposed Aristide in the past. Martelly had links to former Lieutenant Colonel Michel François, who helped orchestrate the 1991 coup which ousted Aristide. Manigat was an opposition senator.

Speculation has been rife regarding Aristide's return since January, following the surprise reappearance of the former dictator Jean Claude 'Baby Doc' Duvalier after 25 years in exile. On 8 February President René Préval said he would grant Aristide a passport - previously cited as the main obstacle preventing his return from exile in South Africa. This was seen a final act of defiance against the US after Préval's candidate, Jude Célestin, was excluded from the run-off by the CEP under international pressure.

On 13 March, a US State Department spokesman, Mark Toner, said that Aristide had the right to return, but stressed that doing so this week “can only be seen as a conscious choice to impact Haiti's elections." A delay, Toner said, would “permit the Haitian people to cast their ballots in a peaceful atmosphere."

Aristide's attorney, Ira Kurzban, said that Aristide has no interest in meddling in the election but is coming now because he can: “He is genuinely concerned that a change in the Haitian government may result in his remaining in South Africa," Kurzban said.

Development: On 7 May, Venezuela's energy minister, Rafael Ramí­rez, said that the government would invest BF60bn (US$14bn) in the construction of 350,000 new homes in 2011-2012, noting that the state is preparing to move to seize urban lands deemed idle.

Significance: To the chagrin of his opponents, President Hugo Chávez is heading into the presidential election with tail wind in the form of a fresh oil price windfall. He remains popular with around 48% of the population, including a large section of loyal low-income voters. His nearest rival for 2012, Henrique Capriles Radonski, the state governor of Miranda, has an approval rating of about 55%, going on two recent polls, but Radonski has his work cut out to: a) become the main opposition candidate; and b) to mount a national challenge against Chávez and his well-oiled and efficient electoral machine.

Key points:

The Chávez government can afford a pre-electoral spending spree, with treasury coffers given a double injection thanks to a fresh devaluation of the Bolí­var in January and the added bonus of soaring oil prices. Chávez last week awarded fat pay increases for mid ranking public sector workers. Ramí­rez stressed that funding for the housing program is guaranteed (in part thanks to agreements with other countries) and insisted that oil price movements would not affect the scheme. Venezuela's housing deficit is 2.0m homes, requiring some 34,000 hectares of land, according to Ramí­rez.  In the past 12 years, the Chávez government has only managed an annual average of 35,000 new homes.

The additional oil dollars flowing into the economy seem to be helping to ease supply pressures, with inflation dipping to 1.5% month-on-month and 22.9% year-on-year in April. 

Moving forward, however, it may head back up as the government puts its foot on the accelerator for 2012. Moreover, opposition economists say that proposed new presidential decree legislation aimed at capping inflation and ending alleged market speculation  -Ley de Costos, Precios y Protección del Salario,  which would give the state price control over all locally produced goods-  could actually have the reverse effect by acting as a further disincentive to national production. The Chávez administration has imposed an array of price controls and has intervened across a range of designated key sectors, with mixed results.

AsiaInt Weekly Alert, 15 April 2005

Click here for full text:
http://www.asiaint.com/arl/arl5931.asp- 1,163 words

China and Japan's enmity is deep and long-standing, but since the two normalised diplomatic ties in 1972 their relationship has rarely been allowed to deteriorate to its current level of hostility. Today's unfriendliness goes beyond superficial disputes about history textbooks and energy resources in the South China Sea to the issue of strategic competition between the two for military and economic pre-eminence in Asia, boding ill for the stability of the region in the near future_

TOURISM IN BRAZIL: State department warns US tourists

US-BRAZIL RELATIONS: Bush victory makes no difference to 'excellent' relations

EXPORT MARKETS: Brazil loses out to US

US AID: Bolivia, Nicaragua, Honduras to receive more

THE US ELECTION: Hispanic vote not easily definable

IMMIGRATION: Assailant storms L.A consulate

TOURISM IN BRAZIL
On 5 November the US State Department alerted US tourists to the risks of travelling to Brazil. The report says 'criminality has been on the increase in Brazil' and that the problem is particularly bad in the big cities. According to the report, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo and Brasí­lia are the most dangerous destinations. The US State Department advised tourists to 'dress simply and avoid wearing expensive objects' when in Brazil. The Amazon and the Triple Border were also cited as dangerous. According to the report, there have been recent cases of violence against US interests and travellers in the Amazon region. The US State Department also affirms that 'there are individuals who finance international terrorist groups' on the border with Paraguay and Argentina. The Itamaraty said the report demonstrated that the US State Department has 'an unbalanced vision of violence in Brazil' and that an official response would be given to the US administration.

US-BRAZIL RELATIONS
The Brazilian foreign Office, the Itamaraty, does not consider Bush's re-election 'better or worse' for the two countries' relations. That was what the Brazilian foreign minister, Celso Amorim, said after a meeting with President Lula da Silva on 4 November. In a declaration to the press to announce Bush's victory, the US ambassador in Brazil, John Danilovich, said the relations between the Brazilian and the US administrations are 'excellent'. According to Danilovich the US considers Brazil 'a stabilizing force' in Latin America and that the US will support the Brazilian peacekeeping mission in Haiti. Danilovich praised Brazil's economic policy and said that both countries have several 'common interests', not least the promotion of free trade. He also said the US will push for the creation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA), but considers the January 2005 deadline for the negotiations completion 'unrealistic'.

EXPORT MARKETS
According to a survey by the Industries' Federation of São Paulo (Fiesp) Brazilian exports are losing Latin American and US markets because of Washington's bilateral trade accords with other Latin American nations. Fiesp argues that the US has managed to reach trade agreements with Aladi and Mercosur countries which have undermined the competitiveness of Brazilian exports in the region.

US AID
Bolivia, Nicaragua and Honduras are among the 16 poor countries which will get US aid during the 2005 fiscal year which began on 1 October. In fiscal 2004, the US congress approved US$1bn in aid for these 16 countries under the Millennium Challenge Corporation programme. This year President Bush asked Congress to increase the aid to US$2.5bn. The countries put up projects to the Millennium Challenge Corporation which assesses them against its criteria which include poverty reduction, economic growth and administrative efficiency.

THE US ELECTION
The snap analysis of the US presidential election on 2 November is that President George W Bush won because more of the Latino/Hispanic vote broke his way. Exactly how the vote split is open to conjecture. The consensus figure is that the split was 59% for John Kerry, the Democratic Party challenger and 41% for President Bush. This was the highest proportion of the Hispanic vote ever won by a Republican presidential candidate and up from the 35% who voted for Bush in 2000. The most a Republican had previously achieved was 37%, won by President Reagan in his re-lection. The Southwest Voter Registration Project, however, scored the split 68% for Kerry and 32% for Bush. What is undeniable is that President Bush could not have won New Mexico, Florida or Colorado without the support of a substantial slice of the Hispanic vote. Indeed, the example of Colorado which went for Bush in the presidential election but for a Democrat (and Hispanic) in its senate election, shows how difficult it is to draw conclusions. The safest conclusion to draw is probably that the Hispanics are harder to treat as a bloc than the other big minority, the Afro-Americans, which split 89%:11% in favour of Kerry.

IMMIGRATION
The Federal Bureau of Investigations, the Los Angeles Police and Mexican officials are investigating the incident on 9 November when a single armed assailant burst into the Mexican consulate in downtown Los Angeles at 8.30 am local time and seized a pregnant woman as a hostage. He made only two demands: call the emergency services and the media. The police cleared the building and then shot him dead in the head, allowing his hostage to escape unharmed. It is not clear why he chose to attack the consulate. His identity has not been disclosed, though he is know to be of Hispanic origins.

Brazil: On 6 April, the US government announced it had reached a preliminary agreement with Brazil to resolve the longstanding bilateral dispute over US subsidies for domestic cotton producers. Under the agreement Brazil would waive until 22 April US$829m in pending retaliatory tariffs on imports of US cosmetics, cars, food and appliances. The tariffs followed a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling in Brazil's favour in the dispute. The tariffs will be waived for a further 60 days thereafter if negotiations continue to move forward. For its part, the US has so far agreed to: create an annual fund of US$147.3m to provide technical assistance to the Brazilian cotton industry; review and modify its export credit guarantees for domestic producers; declare the Brazilian state of Santa Catarina 'Foot and Mouth disease free' and; complete a study into the possibility of the US importing fresh meat from Brazil.

Ecuador: The US Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs, Arturo Valenzuela, visited Ecuador on 6 April as part of an official tour of the region that also included Colombia and Peru. He met President Rafael Correa and the foreign minister, Ricardo Patiño, who described the meeting as “very positive" and stated that Ecuador must “maintain cordial and close relations" with the US on the “basis of mutual respect". Valenzuela and Patiño discussed bilateral trade, investment and environmental issues. Patiño also alluded to the “creation of a working group" of representatives from the Union of South American Nations and the US to discuss mutual issues of interest. While unspecified, these issues are likely to include US security policy in the region. 

Guatemala: According to the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency (ICE), during the first quarter of 2010 5,665 illegal Guatemalan immigrants were deported from the US, with 2,054 repatriated in March alone. The figures, though high, represent an 11.8% decrease in comparison to the same period of last year, when 6,427 people were deported. While official figures continue to show a decline in deportations year-on-year, US officials believe that of the estimated 1.2m Guatemalans living in the US, 700,000 are there illegally.

Venezuela: In response to the recent announcement by Russia's Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, that Russia would sell Venezuela up to US$5bn in new armaments, the US state department spokesman, Philip J Crowley, said on 5 April that the US was “hard-pressed to see what legitimate defense needs Venezuela has for this equipment". He added that the US's primary concern was that “if Venezuela is going to increase its military hardware, we certainly don't want to see this hardware migrate into other parts of the hemisphere".

SUNDAY

PARAGUAY: The Partido Unión Nacional de Ciudadanos Éticos (UNACE) will hold a convention to finalise details regarding the presidential candidature of former General Lino Oviedo for the April 2008 general elections.

MONDAY

BOLIVIA: President Evo Morales will resume talks with the nine prefects aimed at ending the political crisis afflicting the country.

GUATEMALA: Alvaro Colom will be sworn in as the new president of Guatemala.

BRAZIL-CUBA: Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will travel to Cuba to meet Fidel Castro and other Cuban officials.

TUESDAY

COSTA RICA: Costa Rica will present further documentation before the International Justice Court regarding the dispute with Nicaragua over navigation rights to the San Juan river.