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*** Jewish settler numbers up again.  According to Israel’s Central Bureau of Statistics, the Jewish population in the West Bank increased by 4.9% in 2010, considerably above the country’s overall population growth rate of 1.9%.  The total number of Jewish settlers in the West Bank reached 311,110 in 2010, up from 296,700 in 2009.  This represents 4.1% of Israel’s total population of 7,695,100.  It does not include Jews living in East Jerusalem.

*** Iran’s nuclear progress.  The latest intelligence assessment is that Iran will gain nuclear weapons in 2015.  It has mastered the fuel-enrichment stage of its nuclear programme, enriching uranium to 20%.  It is thought to be stockpiling low-enriched uranium that can later be reprocessed and enriched to the required 90%.

In June, the director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran, Fereydoun Abbasi Davani, announced that Iran plans to install the first cascade of a new generation of centrifuges at the Fordo enrichment facility, located near Qom.  He said that the production of uranium enriched to a purity level of 20% will be moved from Natanz to the Fordo enrichment facility, and that Iran is to triple the production of 20% enriched uranium during 2011.  The significance of this move is that the Fordo facility is excavated from a mountain and, according to comments made by Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak in 2009, is invulnerable to conventional air attacks.

Meanwhile, speaking on 2 October at a conference in support of the Palestinian intifada held in Tehran, Iran’s President Mahmud Ahmadinezhad reiterated his uncompromising hostility to Israel.  He said: “Some people may have in mind to say: well we’ll give them [the Jews] a little corner [of Palestine].  They can live in that corner.  It is as if, in a person’s body, a cancerous tumour has spread.  It is like the doctor saying: ‘Well, we’ll take out part of it, allow part of it to remain’.  The characteristic of a cancerous tumour is to spread and invade.  If even a single Zionist cell remains in the land of Palestine it would be a danger and a threat to the entire region.”

*** Pakistan president spells it out.  In a 2 October interview, Pakistan’s President Asif Ali Zardari confirmed a point this service has been making, namely that Pakistan’s determined resistance to US pressure over the Haqqani network and other matters is being driven by the US’s planned departure from Afghanistan.  He said: “As the United States plans to remove its ground forces from Afghanistan and once again leave our region, we are attempting to prepare for post-withdrawl realities...Whoever comes or goes, it is our coming generation that will face the firestorm.  We have to live in the neighbourhood.  So why is it unreasonable for us to be concerned abbout the immediate and long-term situation of our Western border?  History will not foregive us if we do not take responsibility.”

Development: On 7 December Ivonne Baki, the official responsible for the Yasuní - Ishpingo Tambococha Tiputini (ITT) project, claimed on the ‘Telesur’ TV channel that the fund had now topped US$100m.

Significance: President Rafael Correa had set a deadline of end-December for the fund to hit US$100m. If this target was not hit, he warned, the government might look at exploiting the 846m barrels of oil which lie under the ITT national park, in a conventional, but environmentally sensitive, way. The Yasuní project calls for western governments and environmentalists to pay Ecuador not to wreck Yasuní by producing oil.

Key points:

• It is not clear where the final US$30m of money has come from. In October Baki said that the fund had raised US$70m. On 7 December the government of the Belgian region of Wallonia announced that it was donating €1.2m (US$1.6m) but that would not be enough to see the fundraising on to the next phase.

• There are rumours that Germany, which has blown hot and cold about the project, has finally agreed to participate. Baki said that she would make a full report on 16 or 17 December but hinted that Germany has made an important contribution.

• The biggest contribution to the Yasuní fund so far is from Italy which contributed US$48m by writing off some Ecuadorean debt.

• The next phase of the Yasuní project calls for the fund to raise the full US$3.6bn to compensate Ecuador for the oil it is not producing and exporting. 

Faced with competing demands from both the government and the opposition about whether to launch full congressional inquiries (CPI) into irregularities at the state oil company Petrobras and the São Paulo and Distrito Federal metros, Renan Calheiros, the president of congress, decided to initiate both. The two CPIs will be ‘mixed’; with the investigators comprising members of both the lower chamber and the senate. While the opposition hopes the Petrobras CPI will humiliate the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) and President Dilma Rousseff in the run-up to October’s election, the government hopes the investigation into the São Paulo and Distrito Federal metros will undermine trust in the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB) of presidential hopeful, Aécio Neves.

The PT had been trying to avoid a mixed parliamentary inquiry. The supreme court had already authorised a senate-led inquiry, where the PT dominates, and the party had hoped to stall further scrutiny. Now a mixed inquiry is inevitable, the PT is arguing that the senate inquiry should take precedence. The idea, of course, is to run down the clock before the elections. The opposition is accusing Calheiros, from the government-allied Partido do Movimento Democrático Brasileiro (PMDB), of slowing down the process in an effort to help President Rousseff; a charge he denies.

Other PMDB colleagues, however, are openly hostile to the government, and some of them will participate in the mixed inquiry into Petrobras. Among other issues, the CPI will look at the company’s purchase of an oil refinery in Pasadena, Texas in 2006. Petrobras paid massively over the odds for the facility, at a time when Rousseff was on the advisory board. Eduardo Cunha, the leader of the PMDB in the lower chamber, will head the mixed inquiry. Cunha heads the ‘blocão’ in congress, a group of rebels from nominally government-supporting parties, and he has had some success this year in stalling government legislation.

While the PMDB has already chosen three of its four members of the investigative committee, congress still has five parliamentary sessions to pick the remaining participants. Sixteen congressional deputies and 16 senators form a mixed CPI. If the parties fail to decide on the names after five sessions, Calheiros will have another three to appoint members. Once again, the senate president was criticised for allowing such a long period of time for the parties to make their decisions. Calheiros has predicted that the CPI would start in two weeks’ time.

The metro CPI

In parallel with the discussion over the Petrobras CPI, the PT had been working to secure an investigation into irregularities in the São Paulo and Distrito Federal metros. On 7 May it succeeded in gathering the support of 191 deputies and 32 senators (the party needed 171 and 27 signatures) to authorise a CPI. The leader of the government-allied coalition in the senate, Eduardo Braga, said, “Now that the opposition is to make political capital out of the possible deviation of public funds, why don’t we discuss what happened with the São Paulo metro?’

The CPI into the metro contracts is designed to discomfort the PSDB, which ran the local governments in São Paulo and the Distrito Federal when they were awarded. Neves, the PSDB presidential candidate, is second behind Rousseff in the opinion polls. In a smart move, Neves, a senator for Minas Gerais, was actually the only PSDB representative to vote in favour of the CPI into the metro contracts, knowing that any revelations are unlikely to affect him personally.

• Strikes galore in Rio

On 8 May bus drivers in Rio de Janeiro went on strike over pay and benefits. The strike was widely observed; bus drivers and bus money collectors attacked buses that broke the strike. By midday over 300 buses had been damaged. On 7 May, outside the arena where the Brazil national football squad for the Fifa World Cup was being unveiled, Rio’s federal police held a protest, threatening to go on strike during the tournament. On 12 May the city’s teachers are due to go on strike.

• Lynching

Five people have now been arrested over the lynching of a house-wife in Guarujá, a town on the coast of São Paulo state. Fabiane Maria de Jesus, a 33-year-old mother of two, was beaten to death by a mob last week after being mistaken for a woman wanted for questioning by police over an attempted child abduction. The governor of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin, described the attack as an “act of barbarity”

Chile’s President-elect Sebastián Piñera, who is due to assume office on 11 March, continued with the process of forming his government by appointing regional governors (intendentes) for the country’s soon to be 16 regions (see sidebar) on 26 February. As with his announced ministerial cabinet, Piñera has tried to maintain political and gender balance with his gubernatorial appointments. However, it is not clear if the appointments will satisfy all quarters of the centre-right Chile Vamos coalition that backed his candidacy.

• Ñuble Region

Following the approval of new legislation in 2017, the until now province of Ñuble, part of the Bío Bío Region, is set to become Chile’s 16^th administrative region on 6 September 2018. As part of the transition into a region, Ñuble, which is comprised of three provinces, is currently run by a presidentially appointed delegate, who to all intents and purposes acts as its governor. The person chosen by President Piñera to fulfil this role and lead Ñuble’s transition into a fully fledged region (and become its first governor once this process is completed) is Martín Arrau, an independent politician with close ties to the UDI.

Chile Vamos is composed of the right-wing Unión Demócrata Independiente (UDI), the senior partner in the coalition; Piñera’s centrist Renovación Nacional (RN), the second largest partner; and the small right-of-centre Partido Evolución Política (Evópoli). Piñera will have to try to keep all of these parties happy if he wants to retain the full support of the coalition. That this is his aim is evident in his ministerial appointments [WR-18-04], which while dominated by technocrats are roughly equally divided among the three Chile Vamos parties. But in an apparent bid to appease any lingering discontent over the cabinet appointments among Chile Vamos members, Piñera almost exclusively appointed politicians to the governorships. Moreover, these have been largely divided between the UDI (which got five governorships) and RN (which also got five), independents (four), and Evópoli (two).

Piñera has also succeeded in maintaining gender balance by appointing five female governors, or 31.25% of the total, similar to the proportion of women he appointed to the cabinet (30.4%). But while some gubernatorial appointments look like consolation prizes for the Chile Vamos parties, others have apparently caused friction.

Among the apparent sops to the coalition parties are the appointment of the UDI’s Jorge Ulloa, who lost his re-election bid to the national chamber of deputies in last year’s general election, as governor of Bío Bío Region; the appointment of the RN’s Berta Torres, the former governor of the Huasco province in the northern Atacama Region, as the governor of Atacama; and the appointment of Evópoli’s Geoconda Navarrete, who lost her bid for a seat in the chamber of deputies last year, as the new governor of Aysén region.

Yet it was the appointment of Karla Rubilar to the coveted post of governor of the Santiago Metropolitan Region that grabbed all the attention and appears to have ruffled some feathers. This is the country’s most populous region and administering it is seen as big prize not least because gubernatorial seats will be popularly elected from 2020.

Both the UDI and RN vied to secure the Santiago Metropolitan Region seat. So Piñera’s decision to opt for the former RN national deputy but now independent Rubilar surprised many. Other appointments, such as that of controversial former agriculture minister Luis Mayol (2011-2014), as the governor of the troubled La Araucanía Region, also raised eyebrows. Piñera will be hoping that these new governors prove to be up to the task or else he may face discontent within Chile Vamos.

There is mounting concern within the ruling Frente Amplio (FA) that the left-wing coalition’s grip on power in Uruguay, stretching back to 2005, might not last beyond presidential elections in October next year. With early opinion polls suggesting that the centre-right opposition Partido Nacional (PN, Blancos) is in the ascendancy, the main faction within the FA is demanding a change of economic course.

A nationwide electoral survey published by the Uruguayan pollster Opción Consultores on 11 October showed the PN with 30% support, followed by the FA with 25%, and the right-of-centre Partido Colorado (PC, Colorados) with 11%. The Partido de la Gente and Partido Independiente each enjoyed 4% backing. A sizeable 25% of respondents remain undecided or determined to cast blank or spoilt ballots.

The fact that the FA is trailing the PN in the polls is a worrying sign for the ruling coalition as the Blancos and the Colorados, despite historic enmity, can be relied upon to unite in a likely second-round run-off. Conscious of the electoral threat, the radical Movimiento de Participación Popular (MPP), the largest party within the FA, has presented a document to the FA secretariat, arguing that it is “vital” that economic policy be modified “if only partially” because “the model is nearly exhausted”.

Differences over economic policy have resurfaced throughout the FA’s time in power. The MPP advocates loosening the purse strings, and the more moderate wing of the FA aligned behind the long-serving economy & finance minister, Danilo Astori, places the emphasis on fiscal stability. But the debate could be about to re-open if the FA fails to pick up in the polls.

Astori announced last month that he would not compete for the FA presidential candidacy in primary elections next June. One of his acolytes, however, will. On 11 October Mario Bergara, the president of the central bank, resigned his position and launched his presidential pre-candidacy in the FA’s headquarters in Montevideo for Banderas de Líber, a small faction linked to Astorismo.

Bergara was surprisingly candid about what he would offer voters. He argued that public policies need to be revised, adding that “we have to be implacable against ethical shortcomings,” a reference to various corruption scandals that have eroded support for the FA. Bergara also called for generational renewal within the FA, and said he would stick gender parity at the centre of his campaign.

Bolsonaro effect

As part of a debate in the national daily El Observador on 9 October, Uruguayan political scientists discussed whether a figure like Brazil’s presidential frontrunner Jair Bolsonaro could emerge to win next October’s elections. The general consensus was that in a country with a strong party system this was unlikely. It should be noted, however, that Nayib Bukele, similar to Bolsonaro in the sense of being an anti-party populist outsider, leads the polls ahead of presidential elections in El Salvador next February despite two political parties having dominated national politics for the last 26 years.

The political scientists in the El Observador debate argued that the closest thing Uruguay had at present to Bolsonaro is the leader of the Partido de la Gente, Edgardo Novick, although “his anti-political and anti-party discourse is not anti-democratic”. Novick is also not sufficiently popular if early polls are anything to go by.

Novick represented the Partido de la Concertación alliance between the PN and PC in the 2015 municipal elections in Montevideo but lost to the FA’s Daniel Martínez, who is favourite to secure the ruling coalition’s presidential nomination. Novick then formed his own party.

• Carrió

“If [the president] is tired of me he can eject me…but I will keep fighting for truth and justice,” Elisa Carrió said upon presenting an impeachment motion against the justice minister, Germán Garavano. President Macri cannot be seen to be acceding to Carrió’s demands but neither can he afford to lose her support. A popular straight-talking politician, she says what she thinks and the public listens to (or reads) what she says. Nobody takes on Kirchnerismo like Carrió, and her presence in his coalition allows Macri to assure voters of his government’s commitment to transparency and combating corruption. But she is a loose cannon and her artillery will sometimes be trained on the government. Despite their latest differences, Carrió did still endorse Macri as “the best candidate for Cambiemos in 2019”.

TRINIDAD | Police warn about gang weapons. At a hearing of parliament’s Joint Select Committee on National Security on 20 February, Assistant Commissioner of Police Jayson Forde said that the police were seizing about 1,000 weapons a year, but Committee chairman Paul Richards was unimpressed. He said: “If I were to accept this in the context of the seizure rate it suggests that about 7,500 plus illegal firearms are just lurking around T&T and are awaiting unfortunate use. The seizure of 1,000 out of 8,000 does not give me a lot of comfort.”

The chairman also said that he thought the figure of perhaps 8,200 illegal weapons, on 2016 data, was likely to be “grossly underestimating the number of firearms in T&T”. He said: “The numbers just don’t seem to add up to me”, particularly as there are about 2,000 criminal gangs with perhaps an average membership of 20.

Jayson Forde also warned about the increasing number of “assault-type firearms”.

Another point of concern is the ease with which weapons are apparently coming through legitimate ports of entry. It was noted that the committee had been told separately by the Crime and Problem Branch of the Trinidad & Tobago Police Service (TTPS) that confiscation of firearms would have little impact unless “serious, concerted, and radical efforts” were directed towards preventing the import of illegal weapons.

In 2018, 988 illegal guns were confiscated, along with 16,300 rounds of ammunition. In 2017, there were 1,064 illegal firearms confiscated and 18,000 rounds of ammunition.

BARBADOS | Police talk of “new wave of fear”. In the first two months of 2019, there were 14 murders in Barbados, an increase of over 200% on the previous year. Speaking before the final two murders recorded in February, Deputy Commissioner of Police Erwin Boyce said: “Twelve murders in the first two months of the year 2019 is unprecedented, and with over 15 reported incidences of shootings, evidence is there that criminal behaviour is no longer a closeted activity.”

The deputy commissioner added that there was “a new boldness in committing crime”, and he said that this new boldness was linked to the accessibility of firearms. Nevertheless, he tried to add some comforting perspective by saying that major crime was actually down by 21% compared with the same period in 2018.

CARICOM | Criticising the EU on compliance requirements. The secretary-general of the Caribbean Community (Caricom), Irwin LaRoque, has accused the European Union of constantly moving the goalposts on the question of good tax governance. LaRoque told a Caricom Heads of Government meeting on 26 February that the EU’s self-determination of what constitutes good tax governance “reeks of a by-gone era which came to an end with our political independence”.

He said that the EU was imposing “onerous requirements…[that] are constantly shifting and go beyond those established by the OECD”.

For LaRoque, it seems as if the EU is intent on destroying international financial services in the Caribbean, and if so that would be “a frontal attack on the economies of the affected member states”.

*** CARBON CREDITS FOR DEBT. On 20 September, International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told the New York Times Climate Forward event that carbon credits could be a way of reducing debt for Caribbean nations. She said: “What do we do in a world where crisis upon crisis has lifted debt burdens on developing countries, and at the same time they are being hit by climate shocks? I do believe it is very important to think about finding a solution that marries these two problems.”

Georgieva added: “On one side debt, on the other side climate. We have been advocating for creating objective platforms in which both public institutions, philanthropic and private sector, can step in…Let’s take [the example of The Bahamas], you suck in carbon, why not provide to your creditors not money but carbon credits that have monetary equivalents? Is that possible? Yes, it is possible. It is hard but it is possible.” The IMF managing director went on to say that the Fund has been thinking about “how to create key performance indicators that would allow a country to swap its debt for climate investments and climate resilience or in a mitigation programme”.

One increasingly vocal supporter of innovative solutions is Prime Minister Mia Mottley of Barbados. She used her September speech to the United Nations General Assembly to argue for a complete reform of the global financial architecture. She argued that financing for the development of small island developing states (SIDS), such as Barbados, cannot be achieved with short-term debt and must be replaced by “at least 30-year money”. She pointed to the fact that Britain only paid off the last of its World War I bonds 100 years after they were issued. She said: “We are no different. We have incurred debts for Covid-19, for climate, and now to fight this difficult moment of inflation and [supply crisis]. Why, therefore, must the developing world now seek to find money within seven to 10 years, when others had the benefit of longer tenures to repay money?”

*** EU BLACKLIST BLOW FOR THE BAHAMAS. On 4 October, the European Union (EU) added The Bahamas, Anguilla, and the Turks & Caicos Islands to its list of “non-cooperative” tax havens. The EU said that these three jurisdictions, which all have a zero or nominal corporate tax rate, “are attracting profits without real economic activity”. The EU’s list is updated every six months, and it requires EU member states to take “defensive measures” against those on the list.

GUATEMALA | Homicide rate falling. On 28 September, President Alvaro Colom predicted that the number of homicides in Guatemala would fall this year for the second year running, possibly by as much as 6% to 6.5%. He made reference to data from the Procuraduría de Derechos Humanos (PDH, the office of the human rights ombudsman), which showed that in 2010 the number of homicides had fallen by 7.8% to 5,960 (from a peak figure of 6,498 in 2009).

The same day as Colom has making his forecast, the PDH released less encouraging figures for this year (actually originating from the national police). They showed the number of homicides in the period January-September at 4,255, lower than in the same period of 2010, but only by 2.5%. They also showed 4,764 people injured in the first nine months, 69% of them by gunfire (this total was 15% down, year-on-year).

The department of Guatemala, which includes the capital, was still the most violent, accounting for 38% of all homicides and 48% of the injuries.

GUATEMALA | Seizure of narco assets. The national police has reported that so far this year, it has seized from drug traffickers assets (vehicles, vessels, weapons and ammunition) valued at US$701,647, and US$3.9m in cash. By adding in the estimated value of drug crops (poppy and cannabis) and synthetic drugs seized, it claims that the total has risen to US$3.2bn, equivalent to 30% of the public debt.

HONDURAS | Major cocaine seizures. On 8 October the Honduran navy managed to refloat a semisubmersible that had been sunk back in July in a combined operation with the US Coastguard (USCG). It was found to have been carrying 7.5 tonnes of cocaine. The crew (one Honduran and three Colombians) are to be tried in the US.

On 19 October, in another joint operation between the Honduran navy and the USCG, a vessel carrying an estimated 3-4 tonnes of cocaine was intercepted in deep waters in the Caribbean and taken to Puerto Castilla. The vessel had a crew of three Colombians and nine Hondurans.

The authorities are trying to figure out the connection between the ‘transporters’ of the cocaine and the ultimate buyers, believed to be one of the Mexican cartels that have established a presence in the country. Cocaine that arrives at Honduras’s Caribbean coast is usually transported overland via Guatemala to Mexico.

NICARAGUA | Zetas recruiting former soldiers. On 3 October the national police chief in Madriz announced the capture of two suspected members of the Mexican drug trafficking organisation (DTO) Los Zetas, believed to have been involved in the hiring of gunmen, among former soldiers.

The local media cited unnamed police sources as saying that the two detainees had been responsible for having recruited about 50 people (all with military background) and organised their transit via Honduras and Guatemala to Mexico, to place them in the service of the DTO’s ‘hit’ teams.

The country’s imports and exports both set new records in 2011. Imports were up 30% on 2010, driven by strong demand from private consumers while exports were up 20%, thanks largely to rising prices. Export volumes actually fell.

All the figures are preliminary but they show imports in 2011 at just under US$11bn. The most used estimate is US$10.87bn, which is 31% up on the actual figure for 2010. The figure is well ahead of the previous record (of U$9bn), which was set in 2008.

A lot of the rise in the cost of imports is due to the run-up in oil and fuel prices. The country’s fuel import bill was 70% higher in 2011 than in 2010 and accounted for a third of the rise in the total import bill.

Imports of consumer goods also boomed, thanks to the strength of the peso against the US dollar and the confidence of households. Imports of consumer goods were up 26% in the first 11 months of 2011 when compared with the same period of 2010.

The fact that the biggest jump, by value and volume, of imports was in so-called intermediate goods is also encouraging. That this category was still the biggest riser, even when fuel and electricity (both major import categories) are excluded is even more encouraging. This suggests that local industry was stocking up either to meet local demand or to export. The bill for the import of intermediate products was up by a third, year-on-year, in the first 11 months of 2011. The big jumps were in inputs for the plastic and medical-supplies industries.

Imports of capital goods were up by a so-so 17% in the first 11 months of 2011 when compared with the same period of 2010. What is interesting is that public sector imports of capital goods jumped 70% while private sector imports were up just 10%. The main reason for the jump in public sector imports was the purchasing of equipment for the expansion of the national grid (UTE) and for the expansion of the oil refinery owned by Ancap, the state-owned oil company.

On the export side, revenues were up by 18%, year-on-year, at US$8bn. This figure does not exclude exports from the free-zone, which will probably add another US$1.4bn to the total. Meat exports were up 17%, year-on-year, at US$1.3bn and dairy products were up 27% at US$550m. Soya exports came to US$940m and rice exports came to US$480m, both up 20% year-on-year. The only one of the country’s top 10 exports which saw a fall in export revenues in 2011 was wheat, where export receipts were down 13%, year-on-year, at US$340m.

The main reason for the increase in revenues was a surge in international prices. The Cámara de Industrias del Uruguay calculated that for the first 10 months of 2011 average export prices were up 27% while export receipts were up 18%. This suggests that in fact, export volumes fell. This was certainly true for meat, where the number of animals slaughtered was 8% down on 2010. The industry is still feeling the effects of the 2008/9 drought, which prompted ranchers to cut their losses and slaughter stock because the run up in feed prices meant that they would lose money if they held their animals to their usual finished weight. Soya exports were down by about 7% as farmers switched to other crops (probably rice, where export volumes were up by 20%, making the 2010/11 crop the biggest on record). Wheat production was down by about a quarter in 2011.

The bottom line of all this is that the country probably ran a balance of payments deficit, excluding tourism, of around US$1bn in 2011. As the 2011/12 tourism season was probably one of the best ever with buoyant demand from the two key markets of Brazil and Argentina and sweltering weather, the country’s macro-economy is in decent shape.

Interest rates: At the end of December 2011 the central bank jerked up interest rates from 8% to 8.75%. One reason for the sharp increase was the overshoot in inflation. In 2011 inflations reached 8.6%, year-on-year, well above the central bank’s target of between 4% and 6%.

Fiscal deficit: The government now believes that its fiscal deficit in 2011 was 0.8%, half the previous estimate of 1.6%. The announcement came from the economy minister, Fernando Lorenzo, who said that 2011 had been a much better year for the economy than the government had expected. He said that energy costs had been lower (despite the surge in fuel imports); tax collection had been better; and that the increase in utility prices had reduced losses for state-owned utility companies.

*** Decision against Sharia in Tunisia in line with MB ‘gradualism’.  On 25 March, the Islamist Ennahda Movement in Tunisia, the largest party in the country’s governing coalition, said that it would not support the enshrining of Sharia as the principal source of legislation for Tunisia.  Instead, Ennahda has supported the maintaining of a 1959 law that declares “Tunisia is an independent state and Islam is its religion”.  The movement’s leader Rachid Ghannouchi explained the move by saying “the issue of Sharia has caused a kind of rift in Tunisian society”.

This move is in line with wider Muslim Brotherhood policy.  In Egypt, the deputy head of the MB’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) has said that the FJP “would not impose” Sharia.  Syria’s MB has made similar noises.  References to the gradual implementation of Sharia can be found throughout MB literature.  According to the MB’s philosophy, Islamization should come from community-based and social work.  In November 2011, a provincial leader of Egypt’s FJP summed up the policy when he said: “Sharia law cannot be implemented in one go.  It will be implemented over periods of time that could be as long as 15 years, until people can welcome it.”

*** MB in bid for Egyptian presidency.  The move by the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt to seek the presidency for Khairat al-Shater, despite having originally said it would not, seems to be against its usual cautious approach (see item above).  However, the MB’s hand seems to have been forced by two considerations.  The first was that other Islamist candidates had declared their intention to stand, and the Salafist Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, in particular, had been drawing big crowds.  Secondly, the MB has come to the realization that its big election victory means that it has to deliver results, and without the presidency this will be more difficult.

Mahmoud Ghozlan, a member of the MB’s executive bureau, explains: “The people did not just elect us to parliament to issue legislation and monitor the government but to improve their lives.  People ask us every day: ‘We elected you, what have you done for us?’.”  Another senior MB figure, Saad Emara, made the same point when he said: “If we get the presidency, and we have a majority in parliament and we can name the government, there will be some kind of harmony in implementing the project we want to achieve for Egypt.”  At the moment the army is preventing the MB’s Freedom and Justice Party (FJP) from forming the government.

Whatever the reason for the move, it has naturally stirred the fears of secularists.  Presidential hopeful Amr Moussa has asked for an explanation of the recent statement by MB Supreme Guide Mohammad Badie in which he said that his position was higher than that of Egypt’s president.  Moussa said: “That means that if Shater is elected president, the supreme guide will be the country’s real leader.”

The Brazilian opposition complained loudly in January upon reports that President Dilma Rousseff had asked ministers to accelerate and expand the third phase of the federal government’s public housing scheme Minha Casa Minha Vida in order to build 3.5m new homes in 2015-2018, up from the targeted 2.7m in phase two of the scheme, due to be completed this year.

Senator Cássio Cunha Lima of the main opposition Partido da Social Democracia Brasileiro (PSDB) told the daily O Globo that the government was “taking advantage of the population’s socio-economic difficulties to get more votes”, accusing the government of “massive opportunism”. “The government is using the weaknesses of the poorest sectors to perpetuate itself in power. But that will one day be paid for by society, because it is creating a huge [housing] bubble, the level of arrears is really high”, Cunha noted.

The budget for Minha Casa Minha Vida in 2014 will be R$15.8bn (US$7.0bn), according to planning ministry figures, up R$1.0bn on last year’s R$14.7bn. With private surveys commissioned by the ruling Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT) showing that the government’s flagship conditional cash transfer scheme Bolsa Família no longer exerts the same electoral power as it once did (it has now been in place a decade and has effectively become part of the state furniture, with the Brazilian opposition fully committed to retaining the scheme), President Rousseff wants to make Minha Casa Minha Vida one of her key campaign assets in 2014.

This also comes in response to last year’s national public protests, when the new lower income middle class joined forces with the existing upper middle class to demand of the government better public services, including health, education and transport infrastructure

Brazil awarded public-private sector concessions worth US$34bn in 2013

Pablo Fonseca Pereira dos Santos, deputy secretary for the economy at Brazil’s finance ministry, told the daily O Estado on 5 January that Brazil’s federal government in 2013 awarded private sector infrastructure concessions worth some R$80.3bn (roughly US$34bn) over the course of (average) 35-year contracts. The investment will go into roads, airports, ports, electricity generation and the oil and gas sector. Fonseca identified as the federal government’s three main objectives for 2014: to ensure that each contract moves ahead so that the planned investments are carried out; to work with the private banking sector to get it more involved in public-private partnership (PPP) financing; and to work with domestic and external investors to grow the use of capital markets and new financial instruments like debentures for the infrastructure sector, in an effort to “complement” the role of the national development bank (Bndes), which to date has been heavily involved in the PPP model. Brazil is seeking to move from a consumer- to investment-led growth, Fonseca said.

• The hosts with the most?

In early January President Rousseff announced millions in new funding for education in the 12 Fifa World Cup host cities, reportedly in an effort to head off the threat of fresh public protests in those cities during the June-July tournament (which will coincide with the first anniversary of the 2013 protests).

PERU | Ventas de oro a Sudáfrica. El 10 de julio, la embajada de Perú en Sudáfrica anunció que Perú había exportado oro por valor de US$20m desde agosto del 2011, al país africano, el cuarto mayor productor de oro del mundo. El embajador de Perú en Sudáfrica, Daúl Matute Mejía, explicó que las ventas de oro peruano a Sudáfrica comenzaron en el 2011 “un fenómeno que nos sorprendió a todos” dado que Sudáfrica produce más oro que Perú. Sin embargo, Matute alega que ha sido reconocido que el oro peruano “es de una mejor calidad, de 18 quilates y viene en los tres colores, lo que lo hace  valioso para trabajos de joyería”.

Matute señaló que esto ha atraído a las compañías mineras sudafricanas para establecer sus operaciones en Perú, tal como Goldfield que produce 300.000 onzas de oro en la región nordeste de Cajamarca y que tiene planes para una inversión de US$1,2mm en otras mina en el sur de Perú. Matute agregó que los depósitos mineros son en general más accesibles en Perú y que este es otro factor por el cual los mineros sudafricanos están interesados en el país sudamericano: “en Sudáfrica, las compañías tienen que cavar hasta 4.000 metros bajo la tierra para extraer oro, mientras que en Perú es más accesible y hay otros minerales que también pueden ser extraídos antes de alcanzar el principal recurso de la mina,” dijo Matute.

COLOMBIA | Se eleva la producción de café. De acuerdo con la federación nacional de productores de café de Colombia, FNC, la producción de café en junio llegó a las 714.000 bolsas de café de 60 kilogramos, 52% más que en el mismo periodo del año pasado. Esta es una noticia positiva para el sector que en los pasados cuatro años ha visto decrecer los niveles de producción debido a la propagación de la roya en todo el país como resultado de inviernos consecutivos con lluvias torrenciales. De hecho, el año pasado los niveles de producción descendieron un 18% a 7,3m de bolsas. Los productores también han sido afectados por un descenso en los precios del café, así como por la apreciación del peso. Como resultado de todo esto, las exportaciones de café colombiano también experimentaron una caída del 16% en la última cosecha de octubre del 2011 a junio del 2012.

La FNC ha atribuido el incremento en la producción a los programas de renovación de cultivos de parte de sus miembros, que incluye el reemplazo de plantas viejas por nuevas, muchas de las cuales son variedades resistentes a la roya. De acuerdo con cifras de la FNC, en los últimos tres años han sido renovadas más de 300.000 hectáreas, 117.000 de las cuales han sido convertidas.

El gerente general de la FNC, Luis Genaro Muñoz, dijo que “el salto en la producción y la aceleración de los programas de renovación de cultivos del café reafirman el compromiso de los productores con el futuro y la sustentación del sector”. Recientemente, el Presidente Juan Manuel Santos urgió a los productores a llevar la producción anual de regreso a las 11-12m de bolsas.

ECUADOR | Planes para incrementar drásticamente la producción de gas. El 5 de julio, la compañía petrolera estatal de Ecuador, Petroecuador, anunció planes para incrementar su producción de gas natural un 60% para alcanzar los 100m de pies cúbicos por día para el 2013. El gerente de la división de gas natural de Petroecuador, Francisco Rosero, explicó que la compañía, que tomó el control del yacimiento de gas offshore, Amistad, en el 2010, después que la firma de EU, Noble, se rehusó a aceptar la renegociación del contrato de explotación propuesto por el gobierno ecuatoriano, actualmente sólo tiene cinco pozos de gas en producción, que producen 60m de pies cúbicos por día y que tiene planes para perforar seis nuevos pozos.

Según Rosero, Petroecuador ya ha contratado a la firma británica, Petrex, que traerá una perforadora de Egipto que debería estar en operaciones para fines de agosto. Ha sido estimado que la perforación de los nuevos yacimientos costarán al gobierno entre US$162m-US$180m.

Rosero explicó que el objetivo detrás de la idea de incrementar la producción de gas de Ecuador era proveer al mercado interno a fin de reducir la necesidad del país de importar combustibles derivados del petróleo como el diesel, que están fuertemente subsidiados por el Estado.

Incidentalmente, después que Rosero hizo estos anuncios, el gerente general de Petroecuador, Marco Calvopiña, dijo a la prensa que debido a los retrasos en las tareas de mantenimiento que están siendo desarrolladas en la principal refinería del país en Esmeraldas, Ecuador tendrá que importar unos 4m de barriles adicionales de combustibles derivados del petróleo para proveer al mercado interno, lo que costaría al Estado hasta US$400m a los actuales precios del petróleo.

• Se elevan las importaciones venezolanas de combustibles de EU

El 11 de julio, el Departamento de Energía de EU reveló que después de siete años de bajas exportaciones de combustibles refinados de petróleo como gasolina, combustibles pesados, gas licuado de petróleo y aditivos, estos ahora se están incrementando. De acuerdo con los datos del Departamento de Energía las exportaciones de combustibles de EU a Venezuela prácticamente se habían parado en marzo del 2005, pero desde entonces han estado creciendo constantemente y ahora promedian más de 1m de barriles al mes. En el 2011, EU vendió 11,8m de barriles de combustibles refinados a Venezuela, y este año se espera que se eleve, pues las exportaciones ahora son de 40.000 barriles por día. Embarazosamente para Venezuela, el cuarto mayor proveedor de petróleo crudo a EU, esta paga el considerable precio de US$200 por barril de productos refinados en EU, mientras que el precio del crudo venezolano está actualmente en US$92,87 por barril.

President Daniel Ortega has embarked upon tax reform talks with various sectors. Fiscal reform is a key demand of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with which the radical left-wing Ortega government is seeking a new agreement.

As ever, the likely bone of contention with the Fund will be fiscal, including the issue of tax exemptions currently benefitting the private sector. In a 12 July statement by the IMF marking the conclusion of its Article IV consultation (in late June), the Fund urged “reforms to strengthen further the revenue effort” and highlighted as “particularly important” the need to “widen the tax base by curtailing exemptions”.

The government began talks with private sector organisations, such as the influential business sector lobby (Cosep), on 2 July. Cosep has already resisted the Fund calls for an end to the exemptions.  The government’s current proposal itself, as leaked by analysis weekly Confidencial, stipulates that existing benefits will be maintained, raising questions as to how it will meet the Funds demands. In its statement of purpose, the government proposal – which is explicit about the need for the reform in order to reach a deal with the IMF – notes the need to strengthen the tax system in order to clamp down on evasion and address the issue of exemptions and exonerations. According to figures cited in Confidencial, in 2010 Nicaragua lost N$9.4bn/US$399m due to tax evasion and N$10.5bn/US$447m to exonerations,– totalling some N$20bn/US$846m, or 14.2% of GDP.

Ortega’s chief economic adviser, Bayardo Arce, told reporters that any amendments must be ratified by 30 September in order to be taken into account in the 2013 budget bill, which goes to congress in mid October.

• Exports up

Nicaragua’s exports were valued at US$1.64bn in the first six months of 2012, up 13.3% year-on-year, according to Nicaragua’s official investment promotion agency (Cetrex). Export volumes increased 15.35% to 1.14m metric tonnes. The US remained the top destination for Nicaraguan exports, accounting for 28.9% of sales, followed by Venezuela (14.16%) and Canada (11.14%). A key driver is the agriculture sector, with gold standard coffee the main export followed by beef,

“Una declaración de guerra”. Así es cómo el presidente de Renovación Nacional (RN), Carlos Larraín, parte de la coalición gobernante, describió la decisión de la coalición opositora de izquierda, Concertación, de realizar un juicio político al ministro de educación, Harald Beyer. Larraín también criticó severamente al Presidente Sebastián Piñera por su “pacifista” respuesta. Piñera acusó al congreso de “condenar a un hombre inocente” pero pidió iniciar un diálogo con la Concertación sobre la educación.

Beyer fue impugnado por el senado el 17 de abril, y destituido por 20 votos contra 18, con líderes estudiantiles alentando desde las galerías. La oposición halló a Beyer culpable de no fiscalizar adecuadamente las ganancias hechas por ciertas universidades privadas, específicamente la Universidad del Mar. La cámara baja había votado 58 a 56 para enjuiciar a Beyer el 4 de abril. Beyer también tendrá prohibido ocupar un cargo público por cinco años, y no podrá ejercer ni si quiera incluso como maestro de escuela.

La destitución de Beyer luce como la andanada de apertura en la batalla de la campaña antes de las elecciones de noviembre. La ex presidenta, Michelle Bachelet (2006-2010), la favorita para ganar las primarias de la Concertación en junio y las elecciones presidenciales en noviembre, rehusó ser cuestionada sobre la cuestión, pero vale señalar que la primera de sus propuestas de campaña recientemente anunciadas fue poner fin a la educación con fines de lucro en Chile. La gobernante Coalición por el Cambio, claramente siente que los diputados de la Concertación y los senadores estaban cumpliendo sus órdenes.

La Concertación que aún está mal ubicada en las encuestas de opinión, está desesperada por mostrar que está a tono con la sociedad civil, que es ampliamente simpatizante de las organizaciones estudiantiles que han montado protestas a través del periodo de Piñera, pidiendo que se ponga fin a la educación con fines de lucro en base a que esto es sintomático de la desigualdad económica y la injusticia social en Chile.

La destitución de Beyer también tiene un tufillo a venganza. En la misma semana fue levantada la prohibición de ocupar cargos que pesaba sobre Yasna Provoste, quien fue destituida en un juicio político por la Derecha, entonces en la oposición, como ministra de educación bajo Bachelet, exactamente cinco años antes. Provoste fue la primera ministra en sufrir un juicio político desde que el ex presidente, Salvador Allende (1970-1973), estaba en el poder.

Piñera admitió que sentía “dolor, frustración, e impotencia” por la destitución de Beyer. Él dijo que Beyer había hecho más que cualquier otro ministro para apegarse a la letra de la ley y había encabezado “una gran reforma educacional que el país necesita urgentemente”. Y agregó que “una pequeña mayoría en el senado ha cometido una inmensa injusticia”. En una entrevista con el diario, La Tercera, el 21 de abril, Piñera defendió la legítima ganancia de instituciones que proveen educación de calidad. “Algunas personas han tratado de identificar ganancia con abuso, injusticia y mal uso de los recursos públicos”, expresó.

Piñera también comentó sobre el “enrarecido clima político” que se creó por Beyer, pero expresó su voluntad de sostener conversaciones con la oposición. El presidente del Partido Socialista (PS), Osvaldo Andrade, dijo que la voluntad de Piñera de conversar estaba bien y era bueno, pero significaba poco a menos que él ejerza “control sobre la barra brava en el gabinete” que está furiosa con la Concertación por la destitución. Andrés Chadwick, el ministro del interior, dijo que la destitución de Beyer era una victoria para la “politiquería”, mientras otros acusaban a la Concertación de hipocresía, y que está no hizo nada para abordar la cuestión de la educación con fines de lucro durante 20 años en el poder. Bachelet, quien se debe recordar, enfrentó serias protestas estudiantiles mientras estaba en el poder, insiste en que sus esfuerzos para llevar adelante una reforma de la educación, fueron frustrados por la oposición.

Escoba nueva

Piñera designó a Carolina Schmidt, quien había estado sirviendo como ministra de la mujer, para reemplazar a Beyer. Piñera dijo que Schmidt tenía una experiencia considerable en el gobierno y que en su responsabilidad para las mujeres y las familias en el servicio nacional de la mujer (Sernam) ella había estado involucrada de cerca con la educación pre-escolar que, él dijo, era una de las principales prioridades pendientes en la reforma de la educación.

Sin embargo, Piñera parece haber optado por Schmidt, de 45 años, no debido a ninguna experiencia –ella es una economista quien se inició en el sector privado y llegó a la posición de gerente general de Foods Compañía de Alimentos CCU– sino debido a que ella es la ministra más popular de su gabinete con un 71% de rating de aprobación en la más reciente encuesta publicada por Adimark el 5 de abril. Su capital político se debe en gran parte a su exitosa extensión del permiso por maternidad a seis meses en el 2011.

Piñera también ensalzó la capacidad de Schmidt para el diálogo, que será crucial en los próximos meses pues la principal Confederación de Estudiantes Universitarios (Confech) ha programado una marcha nacional para el 8 de mayo, para seguir a su primera marcha de protesta del año del pasado 8 de abril, y está planeando más en la etapa previa a las elecciones.

Piñera advirtió a Schmidt que ella tendría una agenda muy exigente, incluyendo impulsar en el congreso un número de reformas de la educación, como un nuevo sistema de financiación. Poco después de haber jurado ella, los presidentes de la Federación de Estudiantes de la Universidad de Chile (Fech), Andrés Fielbaum, y de la Federación de Estudiantes de la Universidad Católica de Chile (Feuc), Diego Vela, presentaron una carta en el palacio presidencial de La Moneda exigiendo que se retiren del congreso los proyectos de ley de reforma de la educación.

• Carlos Larraín

“Yo no estoy acá para hacer un taparrabo para ocultar la magnitud de la estupidez de la Concertación [...] Comenzar un diálogo ahora sería premiar a la Concertación por la destitución del ministro,” dijo el presidente de Renovación Nacional (RN), Carlos Larraín.

Following shock blackouts affecting 6m people across 11 southern and eastern states on 11 February (which the government insisted had nothing to do with the increase in demand caused by the heatwave being experienced in much of the country), the Rousseff government on 13 March announced new measures in support of electricity distributors struggling with high power costs on the back of the recent drought, and also in an effort to contain inflationary utility prices rises this election year.

Under the package, the government will provide an additional R$4.0bn (US$1.7bn) of financial support (i.e. subsidies) for power distributors, who have been forced to pay more for thermal power to cover a drop in hydroelectricity supplies, while the country's electricity clearing house will also be permitted to see up to R$8.0bn in private financing to support the distributors. The government will also auction off any excess electricity in April Gradual electricity prices rises will be allowed as of 2015 only, when Rousseff hopes to be safely back in the Planalto for a second four-year term.

Treasury secretary Arno Augustin said the R$4.9bn in subsidies would be covered by an extension of a corporate tax settlement program and possible tax increases this year, with specifying. Critics said the measure was a short-term fix to repress inflation in an election year and expressed scepticism as to the government’s insistence that the measures will be fiscally neutral.

Govt denies electricity rationing on the cards

The federal government puts the prospect of energy rationing in the country at just 2%-3%, below the 5% that the main grid operator, Operador Nacional do Sistema Elétrico (ONS), works with on a permanent basis, according to Paulo Pedrosa, executive president of Associação Brasileira de Grandes Consumidores Industriais de Energia e de Consumidores Livres (Abrace), who made the announcement on 18 March after a meeting between the government and electricity sector representatives.

Operators told Energy Minister Edison Lobão that the main hydro plants in the country were in a ‘delicate’ situation, with reservoirs, particularly in the populous and industrialised south and south east of the country, at their lowest levels since 2001. Hydro plants provide about 70% percent of Brazil’s power. The last major blackouts were in 2001, following a previous drought. Pedrosa said the Rousseff government had painted a ‘much more positive scenario’ than feared, although some of the government’s optimism seemed to be founded on long-range weather forecasts projecting rain soon.

Water shortages are already forcing supply restrictions

Brazil’s main water utility, Companhia de Saneamento Básico do Estado de São Paulo (SABESP), in mid March began limiting the amount of water it supplies to the state of São Paulo, after the federal and state water agencies ordered the company to conserve its primary source by reducing the water drained from the Cantareira reservoir by 15.5%. The Cantareira is the biggest of six reservoirs supplying metropolitan São Paulo, home to 20m people and one of the host cities in the upcoming Fifa World Cup in June and July. On 12 March, Mauricio Tolmasquim, president of the state energy research agency Empresa de Pesquisa Energética (which sits under the energy ministry), said the drought affecting the country since early this year may be worst in 80 years.

• Investment

Sustaining annual electricity consumption growth averaging 3.7% in 2013-20 will require large investments to increase capacity, but there are delays to construction of several hydroelectric mega-plants. Of US$485bn in projected energy investment to 2021, over two thirds will go into upstream and downstream development of the new oil and gas sector, and one-quarter into electricity generation and transmission.

Desde que asumió el poder en enero, el Presidente de Honduras, Juan Orlando Hernández, ha tenido algunas palabras irritantes para EU, el principal aliado del país, más recientemente sobre la crisis de los niños migrantes. EU a su vez ha observado con recelo algunas de las audaces nuevas iniciativas de seguridad de Hernández, incluida la nueva ‘ley de derribo’ y la instalación de radares adquiridos de Israel en un intento por volver “independiente” (es decir de EU) la política de defensa de su país. Después de un definitivo enfriamiento, quizá un intento deliberado por parte de Hernández de poner al país en una posición incluso más equitativa con su capataz en jefe, los esfuerzos ahora parecen estar en marcha para comenzar de nuevo.

A comienzos de agosto, Hernández visitó el cuartel general del Comando Sur (Southcom) de EU, en Florida, para discutir la cooperación en seguridad. De acuerdo con un comunicado de prensa del Southcom, Hernández, acompañado por una delegación que incluía a sus ministros de defensa y seguridad, Samuel Reyes y Arturo Corrales respectivamente, se reunieron con el comandante de Southcom, el General John F. Kelly, más representantes de otras agencias, incluyendo del departamento de estado de EU y la agencia para el desarrollo internacional de EU (Usaid). Kelly recientemente ha sido tácitamente crítico de la política antidroga de Honduras.

“La delegación hondureña tomó parte en un diálogo concentrado sobre cómo la asistencia en seguridad de EU puede ayudar a las naciones centroamericanas a fortalecer su capacidad de seguridad, desbaratar el crimen organizado internacional, y elevar la seguridad ciudadana”, señalaba la declaración, agregando que los “líderes […] también exploraron vías para lograr los objetivos de cooperación mutua en seguridad que el Presidente Barack Obama y el Presidente Juan Hernández, junto con los Presidentes de Guatemala y El Salvador, discutieron [el] 25 de julio en Washington. El Presidente Hernández recibió los firmes compromisos de colaboración para encontrar soluciones para su país, y para la región, de los representantes de EU en la mesa”.

Dos días más tarde, en Tegucigalpa, el administrador asociado de Usaid, Mark Feierstein, elogió el progreso del gobierno hondureño en la seguridad ciudadana. “Estamos suficientemente satisfechos con el progreso que hemos visto. Hemos visto una caída en la violencia en el país durante los últimos meses”, dijo en una conferencia de prensa. Feierstein, quien estaba visitando los proyectos patrocinados por Usaid, dijo que la lucha contra el delito era una “batalla a largo plazo” y el principal desafío al desarrollo económico en Honduras. Él declaró que EU “reconoce una responsabilidad compartida en combatir este azote [la violencia], pero también reconocemos que nosotros no somos los actores principales, los actores principales son los hondureños. Pero estamos acá para seguir adelante con nuestro apoyo”. Julie de Torres, la encargada de negocios en la embajada de EU, se hizo eco de las palabras de Feierstein.

Clasificación de la banda de Los Valles

El 20 de agosto la oficina de control de los activos extranjeros (OFAC, siglas en inglés), del departamento del tesoro de EU, dijo que acompañaba a las autoridades hondureñas en sus esfuerzos para combatir el tráfico de drogas y expresó su agradecimiento por la cooperación en curso. La OFAC hizo sus comentarios en una declaración anunciando la designación de la organización de tráfico de drogas hondureña de ‘Los Valles’y al ciudadano hondureño Miguel Arnulfo Valle Valle como “significativos traficantes extranjeros de narcóticos conforme al acta de jefes [de bandas]”.También fueron sancionados Luis Alonso y José Reunerio Valle Valle, quienes “materialmente asisten y actúan por y en nombre de su hermano”, además de cuatro negocios vinculados con la banda.

La OFAC describió a Los Valles como “una de las más prolíficas de las organizaciones de tráfico de narcóticos […] responsable de la distribución de decenas de miles de kilogramos de cocaína por mes directamente en los Estados Unidos”. Y dijo que los hermanos (quienes conducen su organización criminal como “un estrechamente unido negocio familiar”) “emplean una combinación de violencia brutal y corrupción pública a fin de mantener un fuerte bastión en su base de operaciones en Copan”.

Antes de su designación, las autoridades hondureñas incautaron activos locales incluyendo más de 40 propiedades pertenecientes a Los Valles. Su hermana, Digna Valle Valle, fue arrestado en EU en julio bajo cargos federales de tráfico de drogas.

• Acuerdo de información de inmigración

El 19 de agosto el principal vice-director asistente de imigracion y aduanas de EU (ICE), Thomas Winkowski,  y el director general de la policía nacional hondureña, Ramón Antonio Sabillón, firmaron un memorándum de cooperación “para mejorar la capacidad para compartir información sobre la inmigración y los registros  de la historia delictiva de ciudadanos hondureños que están siendo repatriados de los Estados Unidos a Honduras”. Por otra parte, en MacAllen, Texas, la canciller de Honduras, Mireya Agüero, comenzó una gira de tres días en EU, para esbozar la política de respuesta del gobierno ante la crisis de los niños migrantes, incluyendo nuevas medidas contra el tráfico de personas, campañas de información para disuadir a las familias de permitir que sus hijos jóvenes y adolescentes intenten realizar el peligroso viaje hacia el norte, y la reintegración social, educación y programas de trabajo para ayudar a los migrantes que retornen a establecerse de vuelta en sus comunidades de origen.

In November last year, Guyana was referred to the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) for missing an anti-money laundering (AML) compliance deadline. It faced the prospect of international blacklisting, but the FATF has given it a further year to get its house in order.

Guyana’s problems stem from its domestic political impasse, whereby the November 2011 general election delivered a People’s Progressive Party/Civic Administration (PPP/C) executive president (Donald Ramotar) but gave the opposition APNU (A Partnership for National Unity) and the Alliance for Change (AFC) a one-seat parliamentary majority. The opposition has blocked the passage of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Bill, support for which the opposition has linked to a variety of unrelated political demands.

The regional Caribbean Financial Action Task Force (CFATF) first drew attention to Guyana’s shortcomings in November 2011. In May 2013, it issued a public statement encouraging Guyana to rectify its shortcomings. And in November 2013 it issued a further public statement calling on its members to consider implementing counter measures to protect their financial systems from risks emanating from Guyana. Then in May 2014, the CFATF asked members “to implement further counter measures” in order “to protect their financial systems from the ongoing money laundering and terrorist financing risks emanating from Guyana.” The CFATF also referred Guyana to the FATF.

The counter measures recommended by the CFATF to be taken by members included enhanced due diligence measures, enhanced reporting mechanisms for financial transactions, refusing the establishment of subsidiaries or representative offices in Guyana, and “limiting the business relationships or financial transactions” with Guyana.

The CFATF continues to ask Guyana “to urgently, immediately and meaningfully address its AML/CFT deficiencies, in particular by: 1) fully criminalizing money laundering and terrorist financing offences, 2) addressing all the requirements on beneficial ownership, 3) strengthening the requirements for suspicious transaction reporting, international cooperation, and the freezing and confiscation of terrorist assets, and 4) fully implementing the UN conventions.”

Ahead of a meeting of the FATF in Paris from 18-24 October, Guyana’s Attorney General Anil Nandlall warned that the country was still at risk of international blacklisting. Nandlall warned that Guyana was on the “precipice” as a consequence of APNU holding up the bill in a select committee under its chairmanship – and of its “exorbitant political ransom”. According to Nandlall, Guyana is the only country in the Western Hemisphere that is still technically deficient in terms of its financial crimes’ legislation.

Thankfully for Guyana, at its October meeting in Paris the FATF chose to be understanding, issuing a statement saying that Guyana had “made a high-level political commitment to work with the FATF and CFATF to address its strategic AML/CFT deficiencies”. What it didn’t say, however, was how the Guyanese government intended to finesse its domestic political difficulties. But the government does at least have some breathing space. According to the head of the presidential secretariat, Dr Roger Luncheon, the likely new deadline for Guyana to comply with the FATF demands is September 2015.

• “Guyana’s problems stem from its domestic political impasse, whereby the November 2011 general election delivered a People’s Progressive Party/Civic Administration (PPP/C) executive president (Donald Ramotar) but gave the opposition APNU (A Partnership for National Unity) and the Alliance for Change (AFC) a one-seat parliamentary majority. The opposition has blocked the passage of the Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AML/CFT) Bill, support for which the opposition has linked to a variety of unrelated political demands.”

COSTA RICA | ‘Unprecedented’ security deal with the US. On 22 August Costa Rica’s President Luis Guillermo Solís met US President Barack Obama and inked bilateral agreements on cooperation in the fight against organised crime, migration, and citizen security. The agreements – which include US donations of US$45m-US$55m in equipment to help combat drug trafficking in Costa Rica – were trumpeted by President Solís as unprecedented.

A Costa Rican presidency press releases notes that the agreements signed include: the donation of two ‘C-145’ light cargo aircraft (worth US$20-25m); two patrol boats for maritime vigilance (worth between US$25m-US$30m); equipment to strengthen air control in anti-narcotics operations; biometric equipment to identify undocumented migrants; and scholarships for over 2,000 at-risk young people to improve their job prospects. Other points of cooperation mentioned include: US support for the construction of a hangar and operations centre for air vigilance and a control post near the border with Panama; and support from the US embassy in Costa Rica (in the form of advice and equipment) for the creation of an anti-organised crime unit for Costa Rica’s judicial investigation agency (OIJ).

The cooperation reflects US security-related concerns regarding Costa Rica which stem from its strategic location, porous borders, limited security forces, and thinly-patrolled waters, all of which the latest (March 2016) US State Department’s International Narcotics Control Strategy Report (INCSR) notes makes Costa Rica a major transit and temporary storage country for illicit drugs.

Costa Rica might have a relatively low homicide rate compared with its ‘Northern Triangle’ neighbours but homicides reached a record high of 558 in 2015 – up 17% on 2014. The OIJ reported that 37% of all homicides in 2015 were linked to cases of ‘settling of accounts’ between criminal gangs competing for control of drug trafficking networks.

SURINAME AND GUYANA | OIC Secretary-General. The secretary-general of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Iyad Ameen Madani, is scheduled to make a four-day visit to Suriname and Guyana beginning on 28 September. Suriname and Guyana are the only two countries in the Western Hemisphere to belong to the OIC. Of the two, Suriname is the more enthusiastic member of the OIC, which no doubt reflects its higher Muslim population. In Suriname, 48% of the population is Christian, 22% Hindu, and 14% Muslim. In Guyana the proportions are 57% Christian, 28% Hindu, and 7% Muslim.

The Islamic Development Bank has become an important lender to Suriname. Guyana, by contrast, does not even attend OIC heads of government summits and has yet to appoint an ambassador to the OIC. It is thought unlikely that President David Granger will be much more enthusiastic about OIC membership than his predecessors. However, there is one area in which he will be keen for OIC support and that is over the ongoing territorial dispute with Venezuela – and that might at least be worth a better attendance record at OIC summit meetings.

TRINIDAD & TOBAGO | Freezing funds of terrorist suspects. On 31 August, Trinidad & Tobago’s Ministry of the Attorney General and Legal Affairs announced that it had successfully applied to freeze the assets of 75 entities and three individuals under the terms of the Anti-Terrorism Act, taking the total to 80. However, it did not reveal the identities of either the individuals or the entities in question.

The announcement came less than a month after news that nine Trinidad & Tobago nationals had been detained in Turkey apparently en route to join the radical Islamic State group in Syria. It was later confirmed that eight of the nine arrested suspects were travelling on Trinidad & Tobago passports. Commenting on the Turkish arrests on 18 August, Prime Minister Keith Rowley said: “We have a significant amount of population that are Muslim who are open to inducement to go abroad and do that…and worse to be encouraged to commit atrocities at home. This is the world [in which] we live in 2016.” Security Minister Edmund Dillon had earlier said that the security agencies were trying to build profiles, based on geographical areas, of people who could be persuaded to go to Syria to join Islamic State.

COMMONWEALTH STATES | British Army recruitment. The United Kingdom is to relax its rules for recruiting soldiers from Commonwealth countries, in particular the requirement that the recruit has been resident in the UK for five years. Non-residents will now be able to apply for certain specialist roles such as medical technician, logistics supply specialist, chef, and mechanic. A spokesman for the British army recruitment section said: “We’re looking for candidates that are physically fit, can communicate well in both written and spoken English, and can self-fund travel to the UK to attend one of the Army development and selection centres.” Most English-speaking Caribbean countries are members of the Commonwealth.

ST LUCIA | US presses over extrajudicial killings. The Royal St Lucia Police Force (RSLPF) is subject to US sanctions, under the terms of the Leahy Amendment to the Foreign Assistance Act, over alleged extra-judicial killings carried out between 2010 and 2011 under an initiative called Operation Restore Confidence (ORC). Recently national security minister Hermangild Francis has suggested that a new border patrol agency would not be subject to sanctions as it would not come under the control of the RSLPF. A US State Department spokesperson has said the new unit would “still be subject to Leahy requirements”, but that isn’t quite the same as saying it would still be subject to the sanctions currently affecting the RSLPF.

HONDURAS | Trade debt increases 19.7% The trade deficit stood at US$1.4bn in the first quarter of the year, an increase of 19.7% on the same period of 2018, the Honduran central bank (BCH) reported. The deficit reflects an 11.6% increase in exports and a 3.1% increase in imports.

Coffee, the country’s main export, accounting for 28.6% of the total, suffered a global decrease in price of 11.8%, which accounts for the fall in profits from agricultural exports.

The increase in imports is due to greater purchases of fuel, lubricants, electricity, and raw materials for industry.