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  • TRACKING TRENDS

    LatinNews 21 January 2021 Hits: 1460

    BRAZIL | Coffee exports break records. On 18 January, Brazil’s council of coffee exporters (Cecafé) released a report on the coffee sector’s performance in 2020, according to which Brazil exported a record high 44.5m sacks of coffee last year (one sack = 60 kg). This represents a 9.4% increase on 2019 imports, while revenues totalled US$5.6bn, a 10.3% increase.

    Nelson Carvalhaes, the president of Cecafé, noted that a good harvest helped reach this new record in exports despite the challenges brought about by the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Brazil exported coffee to 122 countries last year, with the three main markets being the US (18.3% of total exports), Germany (17.1%), and Belgium (8.4%). 

  • HAITI: The battle for Varreux oil terminal

    Patrick de Courcy 09 December 2022 Hits: 646

    In mid-November fuel began flowing again through the Varreux oil terminal southeast of Haiti’s capital Port-au-Prince, after a two-month interruption when the facility was blockaded by ‘G9’ alliance of gangs which is led by former police officer Jimmy ‘Barbecue’ Chérizier. 

    The story of fuel supplies and the Varreux terminal is a microcosm of Haiti's spiralling humanitarian and political crisis. The 11.7m population of the poorest country in the Americas faces an acute energy crisis. Only about 30% of the population has access to electricity, often intermittently and at scarcely affordable rates. In rural areas the proportion falls to 10%. Despite good renewable energy potential (wind and solar) and because of a lack of investment in green energy, the country remains almost completely dependent on fossil fuels for electricity generation, with petrol and kerosene also being used for transport, domestic lighting, and cooking. Because of the power cuts, businesses, grocery stores, and hospitals often use their own generators. Around 70% of Haiti's fuel imports come in through Varreux, owned by the West Indies Energy Co, (WINECO). In normal times the fuel is held in storage tanks and distributed around the country by a fleet of tanker trucks.          

    Amid a collapse in law-and-order, G9, one of about 100 gangs operating in the country, had seized access roads and shut down the terminal late last year, reputedly extorting US$100,000 to reopen it. Last October the terminal was blockaded once again, this time in response to a decision by Prime Minister Ariel Henry to withdraw fuel subsidies (which implied price hikes of 89%-128%). WINECO is owned by the Mevs family, one of the country’s wealthiest. The country’s six richest families are known as the ‘Bambam’ - an acronym formed by their surnames - and are often accused of conspiring with politicians and gang leaders to defend their economic interests.

    Why G9, which had been demanding the resignation of the prime minister, ended its siege of Varreux was not immediately clear. But Tom Adamson, a Port-au-Prince based Canadian businessman, commented before the end of the siege that “in the past there have been rumours that the government gave gangs money to quieten them down. So perhaps, under the table, they are asking for money, but I don't know.”

    What is clear is that the closure of the terminal for two months has had a catastrophic economic affect. The United Nations (UN) estimates that over 96,000 Haitians have been forced to leave their homes to escape infighting between the gangs. Kidnappings have increased. Petrol stations shut down while water delivery companies and waste collection stopped. Schools and hospitals reduced their activities. The Caracol Industrial Park, a manufacturing hub in the north of the country which employs 15,000 staff, mainly in textile production, was forced to close. There were longer power cuts and a loss of mobile phone coverage. It is estimated that the annual inflation rate has surged to over 35% with some local economists warning that the country may face a more damaging slide into outright hyperinflation.

    Food supplies fell sharply, with the World Food Programme reporting in October that 4.7m people (over one third of the total population) are experiencing “acute hunger”. Partly attributed to the lack of clean drinking water, there has been a new outbreak of cholera in Port-au-Prince and beyond, with the Pan American Health Organisation (PAHO) saying on 16 November that 175 people have died, 7,600 have been hospitalised, and at least half a million are at risk of contracting the disease. Overall economic activity, which in recent years has been stagnant, is widely expected to have turned sharply negative in the second half of 2022.

    UN response

    Some form of UN-sanctioned intervention - to establish ‘humanitarian corridors’ to guarantee food and medicine supplies, remains under discussion. There is also talk of increasing financial aid with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) announcing a US$60m grant to improve food security, health, and economic resilience. Given the chequered history of previous foreign interventions in Haiti, it looks as if the crisis is likely to drag on some time yet without resolution.

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    Patrick de Courcy 10 August 2023 Hits: 2883

    ARGENTINA | Qatar boosts finances. The government revealed on 4 August that it had obtained a US$775m bridging loan from Qatar to meet a debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The bridging finance comes as Argentina continues to face crisis-level shortages of foreign currency. According to the latest central bank (BCRA) data, gross currency reserves fell 40% in a year to reach US$24.02bn now, while net reserves are negative at minus US$7bn.

    Judging by their recent speeches the main presidential candidates agree on the need to lift exchange rate controls, boost exports, and reduce the fiscal deficit. However, they are sharply divided between those who advocate shock treatment (anti-establishment outsider Javier Milei and Patricia Bullrich of the right-of-centre Juntos por el Cambio [JxC] opposition coalition) and those who call for gradualism (Bullrich’s rival for the JxC nomination, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, and the economy minister, Sergio Massa, of the ruling left-of-centre Unión por la Patria coalition).

    Coincidentally Saudi Arabian investment minister Khalid Al-Falih met the foreign minister, Santiago Cafiero, in Buenos Aires on 4 August. However, discussions seem to have focused not on bridging finance but on possible long-term Saudi investment in “food and energy security”.

  • CHILE: A cable twist for Kast?

    Abbi Dicker 26 February 2026 Hits: 1400

    In a surprise announcement on 20 February US Secretary of State Marco Rubio revoked the visas of three senior Chilean telecommunications officials, whom Washington accuses of compromising “critical infrastructure”.

    The three officials are the transport minister, Carlos Muñoz, the telecommunications undersecretary, Claudio Araya, and the chief of staff at the undersecretariat of telecommunications (Subtel), Guillermo Petersen. The US government appears to hold them responsible for the approval of a contract to lay a submarine fibre-optic cable between the port city of Valparaíso and Hong Kong. In the words of the official White House statement, the three “knowingly directed, authorised, funded, provided significant support, and/or carried out activities that compromised critical telecommunications infrastructure and undermined regional security in our hemisphere”.

    Details of the project and its status are contested. The proposal to lay the cable was reportedly made last year by a consortium including two Chinese companies, China Mobile and HMB Technologies. The Chilean government’s current position is that the project remains under consideration, but no definitive decisions have been taken. Chile is also progressing the Humboldt Cable project, which links Chile to Australia and is being delivered by Alphabet, Google’s US-based parent company.

    The revocation of visas has had a diplomatic and domestic fallout. President Gabriel Boric described the visa revocation as “arbitrary, unilateral and unexpected”. Muñoz, widely seen as a technocrat, said the government did not discriminate based on the origin of proposals, each of which was considered on its own merits.

    The foreign minister, Alberto van Klaveren, said Chile objected to being used as part of a super-power conflict between China and the US, and that neither Chilean nor US security was in anyway compromised by the cable project. Revoking visas was “unacceptable”, he said, particularly when done between “friends and strategic allies”. The US ambassador to Chile, Brandon Judd, had questioned the country’s capacity to deal with “foreign malicious agents” but Van Klaveren said Chile had “robust” procedures with which to do so.

    The timing of the controversy is interesting. Left-leaning Boric is poised to leave office after four years in power on 11 March. He will be succeeded on that day by far-right leader José Antonio Kast (who will also have met US President Donald Trump a few days earlier in Miami).

    The visa revocations could be intended as a warning, not to Boric, but to the incoming Kast. Ignacio Walker, a former foreign minister under President Ricardo Lagos (2000-2006), said that Washington had sanctioned the Boric government “because the political cost is lower – he leaves in days – but the message sticks”. Kast does in any case have a difficult road to tread since China is Chile’s top trading partner while the US is its top investor. As an ideological ally, Trump will be asking Kast to take distance from Beijing.

    • Kast’s likely response

    Arturo Squella, a close adviser to President-elect José Antonio Kast and president of the far-right Partido Republicano (PR) which brought him to power, has said that the new administration is likely to call a congressional enquiry into the affair.

    The domestic political storm, meanwhile, looks set to further discredit the weakened outgoing government. Over the last week a succession of ministers and officials have tried in public statements to clarify the status of the project and succeeded only in muddying the waters. The latest account is that the government awarded the project as a 30-year concession on 27 January, only to rescind the decree two days later for reasons that remain unclear.

  • Risk pointers

    LatinNews 06 September 2011 Hits: 219

    *** “Give Gaza to Egypt”.  Moshe Arens, former defence and foreign minister of Israel, argued in an article in Haaretz on 28 June that Israel should give full control of the Gaza Strip to Egypt.  His argument is that now that the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Egypt has been opened the Gaza Strip is closer to Egypt and it has freed Israel of some of its responsibilities.

    Arens argued: “With Gaza under Egyptian control, the generally accepted paradigm of the ‘solution’ to the Palestinian problem being the ‘two-state’ solution may in time be seen in a different light.  The problems of the Palestinians living in Judea and Samaria [the West Bank] and of those living in the Gaza Strip, separated by an expanse of territory under Israeli sovereignty, is likely in time to be viewed differently by the world in general, by the Arab world in particular, by Israel, and by the Palestinian populations themselves.”

    He added that from now on Egypt should be made responsible for preventing the smuggling of arms into the Gaza Strip - and for terrorist attacks originating in Gaza and perpetrated with smuggled weapons.

    *** Iranian missile threat.  Iran’s air force commander-in-chief, Brigadier-General Amir Ali Hajizadeh, told journalists on 28 June that Iran’s missiles are intended to threaten US bases in the region and Israel, not Europe or any other countries.  He said: “Our missile range is 2,000km and our trans-regional enemies are America and Israel.  We do not feel any threat from other countries.  As a result, the range of our missiles is designed so as to target the American facilities in the region and Israel...America has made things easy for us because it has built its bases within 120-700km from Iran and we can attack all American facilities in the region by these missiles.”

    The comments coincided with this week’s Great Prophet 6 missile exercise.  The conservative paper Khorasan noted: “The most important strategic ally of the US in the Middle East, Israel, can no longer think of initiating war.  Iran’s defensive power is a trump card in possible negotiations with countries, which earlier used to believe that if the diplomatic tool would not result in stopping Iran’s nuclear programmes, the military tool would inevitably be effective.”

    *** Taiwan’s concerns.  Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou said on 24 June that Taiwan’s attempts to buy F16C/D jet fighters from the US were “not going well”.  Ma told Paul D Wolfowitz, the chairman of the US-Taiwan Business Council: “We had hoped to send our letter of request to the US, but the US has all along been unwilling to accept it, and has even hinted that we should not make such a request.”

  • In Brief - Trinidad & Tobago

    LatinNews 15 January 2013 Hits: 1772

    SECURITY | Trinidad calls out army. Following the announcement on 7 January of a plan to give the military powers of arrest, on 14 January Trinidad & Tobago’s Minister of National Security Jack Warner announced an increased deployment of the army to counter a surge in crime in the first two weeks of January.  Five more military camps are to be set up in crime hotspots across the country after a weekend in which nine people were murdered and the murder total for the year reached 16 after just two weeks.  Warner said that the approaching Carnival season made it essential to take such a drastic measure to ensure citizens’ security.  Warner said: “There were 26 murders for the month of January last year and I have no intention of coming close to that figure.  It is senseless and it is foolish.”

    POLITICS | Campaign heats up ahead of 21 January Tobago election. On 12 January, National Security Minister Jack Warner accused the People’s National Movement (PNM) led by Orville London, of running a house-to-house campaign preaching racial politics, pointing to one PNM politician who has warned about a ship from Calcutta, India, waiting to come to Tobago should Ashworth Jack’s Tobago Organization of the People (TOP) win the 21 January election. The latest opinion poll carried out between 7-9 January shows the PNM beating the TOP by 11 seats to one in the 12-seat assembly. However, more than a third of respondents still claim to be undecided. The Platform of Truth (PT) led by Hochoy Charles is also fielding a full slate of candidates.  The poll showed 46% favouring PNM and 18% favouring TOP, with 36% undecided.  Support for PT is not at a “statistically significant level”.  PNM is favoured over TOP because of its support for internal self-government.  Trinidad & Tobago’s Indian-oriented ruling party – the United National Congress (UNC) – has accused the PNM of playing the race card in Tobago. Warner said that while national Opposition Leader Keith Rowley pretends to be an Indian lover in Trinidad “he then goes to Tobago and practices what has become the norm for him as the biggest Indian hater”.

  • PARAGUAY: Sede de exitosa cumbre de la OEA

    LatinNews 13 June 2014 Hits: 593

    Menos de dos años después de que fuera amenazado con la suspensión del principal foro político hemisférico en la estela dejada por la crisis política provocada por el juicio político del entonces presidente, Fernando Lugo (2008-2012), Paraguay consolidó su rehabilitada posición política regional siendo el exitoso anfitrión de la 44ta Asamblea General de la Organización de Estados Americanos (OEA). Que la Asamblea haya logrado producir algunos resultados positivos, particularmente en el área de los derechos humanos, debería ganarle al gobierno del Presidente Horacio Cartes el crédito político a lo largo de la región.

    La Asamblea, celebrada en Asunción entre el 3 y 5 de junio, fue asistida por el mayor número de representantes de alto rango de los países miembros de la OEA desde la 39na Asamblea General realizada en Honduras en el 2009. Un total de 28 cancilleres de los 35 estados miembros de la OEA asistieron a la reunión en Asunción. Solamente EU y algunas naciones del Caribe y Centroamérica no enviaron a sus cancilleres. Además, 39 de los 70 países observadores de la OEA también asistieron. Entre estos estaban las delegaciones de algunos grandes poderes globales tales como la Unión Europea (UE) y China. Mientras tanto, más de 500 representantes de ONGs de a través del hemisferio también convergieron sobre Asunción para tomar parte en el evento.

    Con tan gran número de asistentes de alto perfil, la administración Cartes estaba no solamente bajo presión para asegurar una organización sin complicaciones, sino también tuvo la a menudo difícil tarea de establecer una agenda y conducir el debate de la Asamblea hacia alguna clase de consenso que podría resultar en una declaración final significativa. Y logró cumplir con esta tarea.

    En un intento por evitar cualquier controversia importante, Paraguay eligió el tema seguro del ‘Desarrollo con Inclusión Social’ como el tema central de la Asamblea. Sin embargo, pronto se hizo claro que la controversia no podía evitarse. Esta surgió de dos propuestas: una de Ecuador pidiendo una revisión radical de la Comisión Inter-Americana de Derechos Humanos (CIADH), incluyendo la propuesta de mudar sus oficinas centrales de EU a un país de América Latina; y otra de Brasil para incluir una resolución pidiendo igual acceso a todos los aspectos de la vida pública para cualquiera, sin tener en cuenta su raza, sexo, u orientación sexual. Las propuestas dividieron las opiniones entre los miembros de la OEA y también dieron pie a grandes demostraciones, a favor y en contra, por grupos locales de la sociedad civil y ONGs.

    Las organizaciones de derechos humanos a lo largo de la región rechazaron la propuesta de Ecuador alegando que la misma era un intento de debilitar la CIADH y que esto representaría un gran paso atrás para los derechos humanos en la región. Por su lado, las organizaciones conservadoras celebraron masivas demostraciones contra la propuesta de declaración de Brasil sobre la base de que de adoptarla la OEA socavaría los valores tradicionales sostenidos por muchos de sus estados miembros, y dañaría seriamente el existente tejido social (la principal preocupación  se centraba en la posibilidad de que la resolución podría ser usada por los grupos de la sociedad civil para presionar por el reconocimiento del matrimonio del mismo sexo en el hemisferio). Esto a su vez provocó que los grupos que defienden los derechos de lesbianas, gay, bisexuales y transgéneros (LGBT) salgan a las calles de Asunción en apoyo de la resolución.

    Todo esto produjo preocupación de que las dispares visiones sobre derechos humanos sólo tendrían éxito en introducir una cuña entre los miembros de la OEA, que por ultimo resultaría en una Asamblea improductiva. Sin embargo, después de dos días de debates, la Asamblea aprobó 50 documentos y una declaración final que incluye 15 nuevas resoluciones (tres presentadas por Paraguay) sobre varios asuntos, entre las cuales estaban suavizadas versiones de dos de las más controversiales propuestas. Una resolución pidiendo cambios en la forma en que funciona la CIADH fue incluida, aunque solamente después de que el pedido de mudar sus oficinas centrales fue desestimado y la propuesta para limitar sus finanzas fueran relajadas. En cambio, la resolución pide que la CIADH celebre más sesiones in situ, en vez de  en sus oficinas de Washington. La resolución sobre ‘derechos humanos, identidad y orientación sexual’ también fue aprobada aunque con numerosas reservas y objeciones formales de 11 países diferentes, incluyendo Paraguay y EU.

    En la apertura de la Asamblea, el conservador Cartes pidió a los estados miembros que “respeten, protejan, y fortalezcan la integridad de la unidad familiar” un en un claro intento por calmar las preocupaciones de aquellos opuestos a la resolución referente al ‘igual acceso de oportunidades’. El canciller de Paraguay, Eladio Loizaga, explicó entonces que Paraguay no respaldaría la propuesta de resolución de Brasil debido a que la consideraba innecesaria, pues la constitución paraguaya ya prohíbe toda forma de discriminación (también es explícitamente clara en que el matrimonio sólo puede ser entre un hombre y una mujer); pero que en todo caso la aprobación de las resoluciones debería proveer una seria fuente de tensiones debido al hecho que no son vinculantes.

    • Elogios

    Al cerrar la 44ta Asamblea General de la OEA, el Secretario general de la OEA, José Miguel Insulza, elogió al Paraguay por organizar y conducir un evento “perfecto”. “Ha sido una Asamblea General absolutamente perfecta desde el punto de vista organizacional […] no hubo deficiencias y eso ha permitido realizar un buen trabajo”, Insulza dijo. Y agregó: “Hemos podido discutir muchas resoluciones, algunas de ellas con cierto grado de controversias [pero] estoy convencido de que las resoluciones que hemos adoptado fortalecerán a la Organización”. Luego él reconoció y agradeció a la administración Cartes por “toda la tarea hecha para asegurar lo mejor para nuestra Organización”.

  • RASTREANDO TENDENCIAS

    LatinNews 27 March 2015 Hits: 683

    ARGENTINA | Los sindicatos del transporte planean una huelga. Roberto Fernández, el titular de la Unión Tranviarios Automotor de Argentina, anunció que los sindicatos afiliados a los trabajadores del transporte irían a la huelga el 31 de marzo, a menos que el gobierno altere el umbral del impuesto a las ganancias. No obstante, Fernández dejó abierta la posibilidad de un cambio de táctica. “Nunca es demasiado tarde para llegar a un acuerdo”, dijo. “No estamos tratando de desafiar al gobierno, pues los trabajadores votaron por el gobierno y debe terminar su mandato”.

    ARGENTINA | Kicillof ataca al Citigroup. Hablando el 25 de marzo, el ministro de economía de Argentina, Axel Kicillof, describió como “ilegal” un acuerdo entre Citigroup y el juez de Distrito de EU, Thomas Griesa, que efectivamente permite al grupo bancario de EU algún espacio de respiro al permitirle que procese dos pagos de intereses sobre deudas argentinas.

    Durante el fin de semana, el Citigroup dijo que Griesa no le restringiría de cumplir con procesamiento de pagos de obligaciones relacionadas con el pago de un bono argentino denominado en dólares de EU, con fechas de vencimiento del 31 de marzo y del 30 de junio.

    Argentina ha acusado a Griesa desde hace tiempo de operar como carne y uña con los ‘fondos buitres’. Efectivamente, Griesa ha dicho que Argentina no puede hacer pagos al 92% de sus tenedores de bonos, con los cuales no está en disputa, a menos que haga pagos iguales y simultáneos a los ‘holdouts’.

    Griesa tiene jurisdicción porque los bonos fueron emitidos bajo la ley de EU y los pagos fueron hechos a través del sistema bancario de EU. Debido a que Argentina se ha rehusado a hacer pagos a los holdouts, ha estado en default parcial desde junio del año pasado.

    El Citigroup alegó que un separado grupo de pagos, sobre bonos emitidos bajo la ley argentina, y hecho desde Buenos Aires a través de Citi Argentina, no debería verse afectado por la decisión de Griesa. El juez parece haber hecho algunos cambios y excepciones sobre sus decisiones, en un intento por traer a las dos partes hacia alguna clase de acuerdo.

    Griesa también ha dicho que la corte no frenaría al grupo bancario de salir del negocio de custodio  de bonos argentinos, como lo ha indicado que desea hacer. Aún no está claro cuál será el impacto que la decisión tendrá en su negocio de banca minorista en Argentina. “Desde mi punto de vista, el acuerdo que ellos han firmado con los buitres claramente viola la ley argentina”, dijo Kicillof. “Leyendo la letra chica del acuerdo”, agregó él, “lo que hallamos es una trampa que apunta posiblemente a estafar a los tenedores de bonos”.

    BRASIL | Nuevo rol para el Bndes. El banco de desarrollo del estado de Brasil (Bndes) funcionara más como “originador” de proyectos, en vez de un exclusivo fiador financiero, de acuerdo con el ministerio de finanzas brasilero. En efecto, esto significará que el Bndes pondrá pequeños tramos de financiamiento para proyectos, dándoles efectivamente un sello de aprobación que espera que atraiga otras inversiones privadas.

    La decisión marca el fin del ciclo de expansión del Bndes. En el 2008 el Bndes financió proyectos por un valor de R$92,2mm (US$29mm); para el 2013 esta cifra se elevó al doble, a R$190,4mm (US$60mm); el año pasado marcó una leve caída  a R$187,8mm (US$58mm).

    A pesar del incremento en términos reales durante estos años, el porcentaje de inversión en el país cayó de un pico del 20,2% del PIB en el 2010 a alrededor del 17% el último año. En el presente hay rumores en Brasília de que, después de la compañía petrolera estatal, Petrobrás, el Bndes, el cual nunca ha sido apropiadamente auditado y tiene una cartera más grande que el Banco Mundial, podría proveer el próximo gran escándalo político y económico en Brasil.

    BRASIL | Caen las inversiones en África. Desde el 2012, el interés brasilero en oportunidades de inversión en África ha declinado considerablemente. El presupuesto para la cooperación entre Brasil y los países africanos ha caído un 25% durante este periodo.

    La Fundação Getulio Vargas tenía 60 proyectos en África hace tres años, y ahora tiene solamente dos. Vale, la compañía minera gigante de Brasil, ha cerrado sus actividades en tres países africanos. La compañía petrolera estatal, Petrobrás, ha devuelto cinco bloques de exploración en los últimos dos años.

    Las exportaciones brasileras a África han caído un 20% en los últimos dos años. Incluso la cooperación humanitaria ha sido afectada. En el 2012, las donaciones llegaron a US$65,2m. En el 2013 cayeron un 89% a US$6,9m.

    • Euroclear

    El 25 de marzo, el Juez Thomas Griesa prohibió a la casa de clearing con base en Bélgica, Euroclear,  la transmisión de fondos a los tenedores de bonos argentinos pendientes de cualquier decisión de su corte. Si, en una fecha posterior, algunos pagos son permitidos por Griesa, Euroclear tendrá que proporcionar a los litigantes fondos de riesgo con detalles exactos sobre quién recibirá los pagos de los cupones y cuando los recibirán.

     

  • ARGENTINA: Spying rules to change

    LatinNews 16 July 2015 Hits: 1367

    The Argentine government has set out new rules governing its intelligence services in the wake of the death in mysterious circumstances of the federal prosecutor, Alberto Nisman. The new rules will grant the executive greater authority in dealing with terrorism, cyber-crimes and economic crimes.

    In March this year, the Secretaría de Inteligencia (SI) was replaced by the Agencia Federal de Inteligencia (AFI). The AFI’s principal focus is to be terrorist threats; acts against the constitutional order; cyber-crime and organised crime, including economic and financial crime. Some of its previous powers, such as wiretapping, have been given to the public ministry.

    Oscar Parrilli, the secretary of the AFI, said the new organisation would settle a “30-year long democratic deficit”. He insisted that from now on the activities of the Argentine intelligence services would only be carried out with the full authorisation of the State, and there would be no independent initiatives carried out by individual agents.

    Nisman, the public prosecutor who accused President Cristina Fernández of “covering up” Iran’s involvement in the bombing of the Jewish community centre (Amia) in Buenos Aires in 1994, based much of his evidence on material gathered by Antonio Stiuso, the powerful former head of the SI.

    • Economic crimes

    The AFI’s remit covers economic crimes. Within the 408-page doctrine of the new agency it explains that this means it will have the authority to spy on banks, financial firms and other companies in order to prevent runs on bank deposits and speculative practices that could “affect economic or market stability”. Oscar Parrilli attempted to shed light on how this would work in practice. He said that agents would not “go to the streets or places where dollars are bought or sold” to uncover illegal currency trading but analyse data and other information and inform the authorities.

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    Patrick de Courcy 19 August 2021 Hits: 4095

    HONDURAS | Economic activity picks up. The economy expanded by 20.9% year-on-year in June 2021, according to the monthly economic activity index (Imae) released by Honduras’s central bank (BCH) on 13 August. This is the fourth consecutive month of GDP growth in the country after year-on-year expansions of 30.5% in May, 27.0% in April, and 13.5% in March.

    According to the BCH, GDP growth increased by 12.4% in the first half of 2021 compared with the same period in 2020 and was driven by hotels & restaurants (45.8%), manufacturing (29.8%), and mining & quarries (24.8%). Livestock, agriculture and fishing continued to contract (-4.1%).

    Honduras’s economy shrank by 9.0% in 2020. The latest (July 2021) forecast by the Economic Commission for Latin America & the Caribbean (Eclac) forecasts that Honduras’s GDP will grow by 5% in 2021.

  • PARAGUAY: Union leaders arrested for extortion

    Patrick de Courcy 21 April 2022 Hits: 4004

    Five leaders of truckers’ unions in Paraguay have been placed under preventive detention accused of efforts to extort money from the government in exchange for refraining from erecting roadblocks. In mid-March they had spearheaded nationwide protests against high fuel prices [WR-22-11].

    The interior minister, Fernando González, accused the leaders of the truckers’ unions of trying to extort “a large sum of money” from the state, initially requesting US$1m before reducing this figure to US$300,000 not to block major roads. The anti-corruption prosecutor, Liliana Alcaraz, said González had eventually handed over US$50,000 during “personal meetings” with the five union leaders, which he had requested be filmed and recorded to expose the extortion.

    Judge Humberto Otazú ordered that the five union leaders, including the president of the Federación de Camioneros del Paraguay, Ángel Zaracho, and the head of the Federación de Transportistas Autónomos del Paraguay, Roberto Almirón, be placed in preventive detention because they represented a flight risk. Renewed protests took place on 18 April on various routes during which there were some calls for the union leaders to be released, fresh complaints against high fuel prices, and demonstrations against a bill which would increase the prison sentence for erecting roadblocks that prevent freedom of movement to “up to six years”.

    • Petropar

    The lower chamber of congress approved a temporary subsidy on 25 March for the state-owned oil company Petróleos Paraguayos (Petropar) to reduce the cost of two widely used types of fuel in response to the protests. But the lower chamber repealed the law on 11 April, and President Mario Abdo Benítez ratified this the following day after trade unions representing agricultural producers and industrial sectors complained that it would lead to price distortions which were costly and unsustainable.

    The senate is due to begin debating the bill, which was presented by Deputy Enrique Riera of the ruling Asociación Nacional Republicana-Partido Colorado (ANR-PC), on 21 April. Various unions linked to productive sectors affected by the roadblocks released a joint statement saying that “the inhabitants of this nation cannot be permanent hostages, living under the threat that today or tomorrow the exercise of our right to move freely could be interrupted”. Transport unions, meanwhile, supported by campesinos and indigenous groups, criticised the proposed reform to the penal code, which the president of the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores en Moto, Federico Ferreira, said was designed to stifle dissent and “coerce people not to protest”.

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    Abbi Dicker 18 June 2026 Hits: 782

    BRAZIL | Retail sales decline in monthly terms. The national statistics institute (Ibge) reported on 16 June that the country’s retail sales in April decreased by 1.5% compared with March. Meanwhile, the monthly sales volume in April this year was up 1% compared with the same month in 2025, and the accumulated sales volume in the 12 months through April was up 1.5% on the preceding 12-month period.

    All but two of the eight product categories measured by the Ibge posted monthly decreases in April. The greatest monthly declines were registered in fuels and lubricants (-6.2%), office supplies and information and communications equipment (-4.5%), and other items for personal and domestic use (-4.6%). Monthly increases in sales were registered in supermarkets, food, drinks, and smoking products (+1.3%) and books, newspapers, magazines, and stationery (+1.1%).

    CHILE | Central bank maintains interest rate. Chile’s central bank (BCCh) has stated that it is holding its benchmark interest rate at 4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive occasion it has opted to maintain the rate. In a statement released on 16 June, the BCCh noted that international oil prices had begun to fall following the announcement of a new ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran. However, it noted that the conflict has been marked by constant back-and-forth negotiations regarding a peace agreement, meaning “it is necessary to continue monitoring developments and assessing their impact on the inflation outlook”.

    At the local level, economic activity contracted in the first quarter of 2026, largely due to the weak performance of sectors linked to natural resources, while headline inflation rose to 3.9% in May, driven by rising fuel prices.

    The BCCh said that while it believes that the balance of risks to inflation has been shifting toward equilibrium, the macroeconomic outlook remains subject to higher-than-usual uncertainty. It stated that it would assess the future path of monetary policy on a meeting-by-meeting basis depending on how events unfold.

    Vehicle production rises

    Brazil’s national association of vehicle manufacturers (Anfavea) released new figures on 12 June showing that a total of 253,500 vehicles were produced in May. This marks a 6.3% increase compared with the 238,600 units produced in April and a 15.2% increase on the 220,100 units produced in May 2025. The total production for January-May this year stood at 1.13m units, up 7.1% compared with the 1.05m vehicles produced during the first five months of 2025.

  • VENEZUELA: Chávez rompe su record anterior

    LatinNews 23 January 2012 Hits: 1002

    Incluso para los exaltados estándares del Presidente Hugo Chávez, su televisado discurso sobre el estado de la nación ante el congreso, el 13 de enero, verdaderamente se extendió prodigiosamente. Con nueve horas y media de largo eclipsó a los más extensos discursos que se han pronunciado en el congreso. La duración del discurso fue por lejos más importante que el contenido, el cual fue predecible, ya que envió un mensaje a los votantes, y a todos aquellos que sospechan que Chávez podría estar terminalmente enfermo, que él está listo para a la pelea en las próximas elecciones presidenciales de octubre.

    Irónicamente, Chávez inicio a su discurso prometiendo ser breve. Dijo que los discursos largos tenían sentido al comienzo de la revolución, pero que un discurso de seis horas ahora era “un abuso”. Pero no aclaró cuál es su opinión sobre discursos de nueve horas durante su perorata. Chávez defendió las obras del gobierno en los sectores de la salud y petrolero, vivienda y producción de alimentos, y en el combate al tráfico de drogas. Admitió falencias en el combate a la inseguridad pública, uno de los mayores frentes de batalla en el cual se lucharán las próximas elecciones, y prometió lanzar una nueva ‘misión’ para frenarla, antes de desviarse hacia el conflicto armado de Colombia.

    Chávez insistió en que si fuese necesario él estaría disponible para apoyar acuerdos de paz en Colombia. “En verdad, yo nunca he apoyado a las guerrillas colombianas,” dijo. El Presidente de Colombia, Juan Manuel Santos, puede haber mejorado dramáticamente las relaciones bilaterales desde que sucedió a Álvaro Uribe (2002-2010), pero es improbable que se vea tentado a asumir el riesgo político de utilizar los servicios de Chávez, cuyos malogrados esfuerzos de mediación bajo Uribe en 2007 envenenaron las relaciones, en primer lugar.

    El día después que Chávez ofreciera ayudar a obtener en una paz negociada, la revista de interés general de Colombia, Semana, estampó el rostro del recientemente designado ministro de defensa de Venezuela, Henry Rangel Silva, sobre una leyenda que decía: “El amigo de Timochenko”, el actual líder de las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (Farc). En una extensa pieza de opinión Semana citó emailes hallados en Laptops incautadas por el ejército para alegar que Rangel era un buen amigo de Timochenko y el enlace de Chávez con las Farc. La revista concluyo que al designar a Rangel como ministro de defensa, Chávez le estaba “lanzando el guante” a Santos, quien recientemente expresó su confianza en que Chávez arrestaría a Timochenko si se lo encontraba en suelo venezolano.

    Sin embargo, quizá la parte más notable de todo el discurso, fue la improvisada respuesta dada por Chávez a la diputada María Corina Machado, quien está compitiendo en la elecciones primarias para elegir un candidato presidencial de la opositora Mesa de la Unidad Democrática (MUD) el 12 de febrero. Machado, en una interjección de sólo 15 segundos después de que  ya habían pasado ocho horas de discurso, acusó a Chávez de ser “un mentiroso y un ladrón”, refiriéndose a la inseguridad, la escasez de alimentos y las expropiaciones. Tomado con la guardia baja, Chávez perdió brevemente su compostura y dijo “Usted me llamó un ladrón frente al país”. Hace quince meses, Chávez dijo que Machado, “esa dama burguesa bien parecida”, sería su rival preferido en las elecciones. Ahora, recurriendo a su modismo favorito “las águilas no cazan moscas”, él dijo que no valía la pena debatir con ella hasta que gane la primaria de la MUD.

    Las redes oficiales de noticias buscaron a Machado en los días después del discurso, indirectamente elevando su perfil antes de las primarias y posiblemente incrementando su apoyo por su temeridad en confrontar a Chávez. Las encuestas sugieren que el favorito es Henrique Capriles Radonski, el gobernador de Miranda. Caprilkes ha enfatizado que si él fuese a ganar la elección, haría el combate a la pobreza una prioridad, junto con mejor educación, servicios de salud y creación de más empleos, así como también mejorar la administración de los recursos del estado. “Yo no hago promesas, yo hago las cosas. Yo no pierdo cinco horas hablando en la televisión,” dijo.

    • El consulado de Miami

    El Presidente Chávez también anunció el cierre del consulado venezolano en Miami el 13 de enero, después de la expulsión de la cónsul general del país, Livia Acosta, por EU la semana pasada, en medio de alegatos que ella habría discutido la posibilidad de un ciber-ataque contra EU [IL-12-02]. La oposición venezolana alego que el cierre del consulado tendría repercusiones electorales debido a que era el principal centro de votación fuera del país, sirviendo a un os 200.000 venezolanos residentes (predominantemente anti-Chavistas) en los estados que lo rodean. Ellos ahora tendrán que viajar a Houston, Nueva York o Chicago para poder de emitir sus votos.

  • POINTERS

    LatinNews 03 June 2013 Hits: 2187

    ARGENTINA | Iran accused of regionwide subversion. On 30 May, Alberto Nisman, lead federal prosecutor in the case against those accused of the 1994 bombing of the Amia Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, had filed a 500-page indictment accusing Iran of mounting a hemisphere-wide network of ‘sleeper’ intelligence and action cells to ‘commit, foster and sponsor terrorist acts in furtherance of its policy of exporting its revolution.’  He has built his case, he said in a press conference, on an analysis of evidence and court proceedings from Argentina, Latin America, Europe and the US where Iranian intelligence agents have been convicted.

    Nisman says that cells have been established in the US, Guyana, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Chile, Colombia, Guyana, Trinidad & Tobago and Suriname. He identifies Moshen Rabbani, the former Iranian cultural attaché in Buenos Aires accused of masterminding the Amia bombing, as the coordinator of Iranian penetration in South America, and particularly in Guyana ‘through his disciple Abdul Kadir’ (the former legislator and mayor of Linden now serving a life sentence in the US for his part in the 2007 plot to bomb the JFK airport, revealed by a ‘sting’ operation).

    He also claims that a number of high-ranking Iranian officials were involved in the plot: former foreign affairs minister and current presidential candidate, Ali Akbar Velayati, former head of the Revolutionary Guard and current presidential candidate, Mohsen Rezaei, defence minister, Ahmad Vahidi, former president, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former intelligence chief, Alia Fallahian, and former ambassador to Argentina, Hadi Soleimanpour. Inevitably, the list overlaps that of the alleged participants on the Amia bombing.

    The government of President Cristina Fernández, which has entered an agreement with Iran for a joint review of the investigation into the Amia bombing, has so far not commented on Nisman’s allegations. The US-based Simon Wiesenthal Centre says the new allegations should lead to the cancellation of the agreement.

    PARAGUAY-BRAZIL | Comando Vermelho ‘cell’ disrupted. On 21 May Paraguay’s antidrugs secretariat, Senad, announced that five members of the Brazilian drug-trafficking gang Comando Vermelho (CV) had been arrested in raids on eight places in Bella Vista Norte, in the border department of Amambay. The operation, codenamed Soberanía, had been conducted by Senad agents with the support of the Paraguayan army and Brazil’s federal police, an offshoot of the bilateral antidrugs cooperation complemented on the Brazilian side of the border by the massive Ágata and Sentinela combined military-police operations (see page 10).

    The raids yielded a cache of weapons which included military-issue rifles, a bullet-proofed Porsche and four vans, as well as small amounts of cocaine, crack and cannabis. One of those arrested is Brazilian; the rest are brasiguayos, Paraguayan nationals of Brazilian extraction. They have been described as suspected CV regional bosses and ‘enforcers’.

    The CV has been present in border departments of Paraguay (Amambay, Candindeyú and Concepción, heartland of cannabis cultivation) for several years, and has been spreading its influence, at the expense of local trafficking gangs, since it has been evicted from several of its bases in Rio’s favelas. One of the organisation’s top leaders was arrested in Paraguay in October 2011 after the Brazilian police raided the Complexo do Alemão favelas.

    Once the biggest drug gang in Brazil, the CV continues to be run from inside prisons. Senad believes it has become responsible for most of the intergang violence, drug-trafficking and gunrunning in border areas.

  • Delta helps Gol repay loan

    LatinNews 25 September 2020 Hits: 751

    Gol Líneas Aéreas Inteligentes, one of Brazil’s top budget airlines, has managed to repay a critical US$300m loan with some help from the US carrier Delta Airlines.

    Airlines around the world are struggling to survive the impact of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Latin America’s two largest carriers, Latam Airlines and Avianca, remain in Chapter 11 bankruptcy. Worries over Gol’s ability to ride the storm were heightened because the airline faced a 31 August deadline to repay a US$300m loan contracted with unidentified investors back in 2015. At the time US airline Delta, in a strategic alliance with Gol, acted as guarantor of the debt. The alliance ended earlier this year with Delta instead entering a joint venture with Latam, but the debt guarantee remained in place.

    On 1 September Gol said it had managed to repay the debt. A leaked Delta memo obtained by news agency Reuters said that as part of the refinancing the US airline had worked with Gol to “replace the existing loan guarantee with a smaller loan secured with incremental collateral”. The memo also said the deal reduced Delta’s own financial exposure, while giving Gol more time to adjust to the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic. Separately, Gol’s chief financial officer, Richard Lark, said the company now had no significant debt maturities until 2024, reflecting “the company’s commitment to strengthening its balance sheet over the last four years”.  It had ended August with around R$5.7bn (US$1bn) in liquid assets, including R$2.1bn (US$386m) in cash and receivables.

    IATA says no take-off yet

    The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has criticised Latin American governments for delays in reopening air travel routes and accused them of suffocating the recovery with bureaucracy and red tape. Peter Cerda, IATA regional vice president for the Americas, said that six months after the start of the pandemic, 90% of airline routes remain grounded. IATA has highlighted its concerns over Argentina where Latam Argentina has ceased operations and three international carriers (Air New Zealand, Emirates, and Qatar Airways) have said they are permanently dropping the country from their destinations. 

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    Anna Grace 08 June 2023 Hits: 3250

    ARGENTINA | Yuan currency swap. Argentina’s economy minister Sergio Massa returned from a week-long visit to China on 2 June having won some respite for the beleaguered domestic economy in the form of a rollover of the 130bn yuan (US$18.4bn) currency swap agreement between the two central banks for another three years. Crucially, this also doubled the portion of the swap freely accessible to Argentina from 35bn to 70bn yuan.

    Over a year after Argentina joined China’s ‘Belt and Road Initiative’ (BRI), the two countries also agreed to deepen cooperation on major infrastructure projects in transport, energy, the economy, and trade. Massa highlighted various projects in the pipeline, such as proposed investments in lithium mining by Chinese companies totalling over US$4bn. China’s trade minister Wang Wentao said his government welcomed Argentine exports and expected an “open, fair, and bias-free business environment in Argentina for building a high-quality economic relationship”.

    Massa is also trying to win support from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to renegotiate the terms of its US$44bn debt programme given the present situation, exacerbated by a severe drought [WR-23-16], to secure an early release of disbursements of US$11bn due before the end of the year.           Sources close to Massa say this may be completed by July. US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Western Hemisphere Affairs Juan González said on 1 June that he hoped for “positive dialogue” between Argentina and the IMF.  

    With net foreign currency reserves hovering around zero Argentina’s economic condition remains fragile. Both Beijing and Washington may face further appeals for short-term help.

  • URUGUAY: Still booming

    LatinNews 31 August 2011 Hits: 618

    The economy barely appears to be slowing down. In June the year-on-year growth in industrial output was 3.5% (2.6%, if the refinery and the UPM pulp mill are excluded).

    Although this is a big fall on May’s figures when industrial output rose by 5% year-on-year, taking the second quarter as a whole, industrial output was around 4.2% higher than in the same period of 2010 (again excluding the refinery and UPM, which are by far the biggest industrial units in the country and thus have a disproportionate effect on the index as a whole). Quarter-on-quarter industrial growth was 1%, in line with the annual figure.

    The performance of the country’s export industries vary; some are running into local difficulties, others are doing well. Meatpackers are suffering from the lack of meat which in turn is a result of a drought 18 months ago which prompted farmers to send stock to slaughter early. Another problem is the financial difficulties of a big textile company, Paylana, which is looking for foreign investors (probably from the US and Argentina) to bail itself out. Paylana’s problems have had a major effect on textile exports. These two problems have been offset by strong performances from the dairy sector, led by Conaprole, and the recovered rice industry, which is benefiting from this year’s record harvest.

    Consumer demand still seems strong because import of consumer goods is still rising at a 20% annual clip and demand household credit remains sturdy. Clear evidence of this is the higher demand for new cars. In the second quarter of 2011 sales of new cars (all imported) were up by 32%, bringing sales in the first half of 2011 to 23,800. This year will likely see a new record set for sales of new cars.

    In July some of this demand appeared to be sated as new car sales were only 5% up year-on-year at 4,120. This meant that for the first seven months, sales of new cars were up by 30% on 2010 at 27,938, according to figures from the Asociación de Concesionarios de Marcas Automotores (Ascoma).

    Local economists guess that GDP growth in the second quarter will be 1.5%, quarter-on-quarter, which points to GDP growth for the year of about 6%.

    Inflation: In July consumer prices rose by 0.75%, more than twice the monthly rate of the three previous months, bringing the 12 month rate to 8.3%.

    The peso: The turmoil in international financial markets in August first pushed the peso up to Ur$18 to the dollar before pushing it back the other way to Ur$19. Since the beginning of 2011 the peso has appreciated by about 5% against the dollar, much the same as the Real.

  • RASTREANDO TENDENCIAS

    LatinNews 12 September 2011 Hits: 212

    BRASIL | Millonarios. Brasil ha creado 8.700 nuevos millonarios, a una tasa de 24 por día en 2010, de acuerdo con un informe publicado el 22 de junio por Merrill Lynch y Capgemini. El país ahora tiene 155.400 millonarios (definidos como tales aquellos con más de US$1,0m disponibles para invertir) subiendo 5,9% sobre 2009. Globalmente, Brasil ahora ocupa el lugar 11vo por su número de millonarios, encima de India, otra poderosa economía emergente; y un poco por debajo de Italia.
    Además, los millonarios latinoamericanos enfrentaron la recesión global mucho mejor que sus pares de otras regiones. De acuerdo con el informe, la riqueza combinada de la región creció 18,1% entre 2007 y 2010, superando la tasa de crecimiento en Asia (14,1%), que ha sobrepasado a Europa como la región con más millonarios después de América del Norte.
    El informe también destaca que América Latina tiene “la capacidad de un crecimiento sustentable” en el número local de individuos de alta riqueza neta, dada una base baja. De acuerdo con el banco Standard Chartered con base en el Reino Unido, en general en América Latina hay menos de 500.000 millonarios y 40% de ellos proviene de Brasil.

    BRASIL | Royalties petroleros. Los principales estados productores de petróleo, Río de Janeiro y Espírito Santo, junto con São Paulo, están preparando una propuesta para ser sometida al resto de los estados del país que otorgaría a todos los estados acceso inmediato a los ingresos generados por la industria petrolera nacional.
    La propuesta, desarrollada por los gobernadores de tres estados, prevé la creación de un fondo de desarrollo regional en el cual la Unión podría contribuir 30%-50% de los recursos financieros de los royalties del petróleo, participaciones especiales, y bonos bajo el actual marco regulador del petróleo.
    Los fondos financiarían a los estados y municipalidades, en particular aquellas en el menos desarrollado nordeste. De esta manera los estados no productores podrían tener acceso a una mayor proporción de los ingresos petroleros.
    De acuerdo con el gobernador de Espírito Santo, Renato Casagrande, este fondo especial funcionaría por cuatro o cinco años, después de lo cual los nuevos depósitos de aguas profundas, que operarán bajo un nuevo esquema regulador, asignando al gobierno federal una mayor proporción de los ingresos totales, entrarán en producción. Casagrande dijo que el objetivo es cerrar la brecha actual y “proveer a quienes necesitan financiación inmediata.”
    En 2010, el ex presidente Lula da Silva (2003-2010) vetó un proyecto de ley aprobado por el congreso que proponía una división igual de los royalties entre todos los 27 estados, sin reconocer apropiadamente las grandes pérdidas financieras que una reforma de ese tipo conllevaría para los productores tradicionales de petróleo.
    La nueva propuesta de los gobernadores será sometida a la Presidenta Dilma Rousseff esta semana. La semana siguiente los tres gobernadores se reunirán con una delegación de gobernadores del nordeste para discutir la cuestión. Los royalties petroleros que proveen a la Unión tuvieron un valor estimado de R$10bn (US$6bn) en 2010.

    BRASIL | MPX. La compañía brasileña de energía MPX aprobó la cuestión de los bonos convertibles a un valor potencial de R$1,37bn (US$861m) en su última reunión general anual.
    La firma se prepara a emitir 21.735.744 bonos por un valor de R$63 (US$9,64) cada uno con un rendimiento anual de 4%, expirando en 2014. Los bonos pueden convertirse en acciones de voto en cualquier momento a un precio fijo de R$43 por acción.
    La capitalización es para incluir una inversión de R$600m en el Banco nacional de desarrollo de Brasil, a través de BNDESPar; R$200 de Gávea Investimentos; y otros R$200m del propietario mayoritario de MPX y el hombre más rico de Brasil, Eike Batista.
    Los fondos reunidos reforzarán la estructura de capital de la compañía y le permitirá implementar sus programas de inversiones. Entre ellos, planes de exploración minera de carbón en Colombia.
    Recientemente, una organización japonesa, Itochu Corporation, compró 20% de participación en las operaciones mineras colombianas de Drummond. Itochu explicó que espera totalmente que Japón se orientará a plantas de energía alimentadas a carbón a fin de elevar la capacidad de generación que perdió luego del reciente desastre en las plantas nucleares de Fukushima.

  • MICHOACAN: State election threatens to be hard fought and violent

    LatinNews 03 November 2011 Hits: 413

    The gubernatorial election in Michoacán on 13 November is close. Each of the three main national parties, the Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), the Partido Acción Nacional (PAN) and the Partido de la Revlución Democrática (PRD), which currently rules the western state, has a chance of winning the governorship. What may determine the result is how violent the state is in the run-up to the election. The greater the violence the more likely a change of government.

    The election in Michoacán is the last major electoral test before the presidential and congressional elections next July.

    The election is particularly interesting because Michoacán is President Felipe Calderón Hinojosa’s home state and his sister, Luisa María (known as Cocoa), is running as the PAN’s candidate. The state will also elect mayors and local deputies on 13 November. If Luisa María wins, the candidacy of Josefina Vázquez Mota, for the PAN’s presidential nomination, is likely to be boosted. Vázquez Mota is not, however, President Calderón’s preferred candidate for his party’s presidential nomination: rather backing Ernesto Cordero.

    Michoacán has not flourished under the current PRD administration. It has one of the highest public debts, lowest educational attainments, poorest GDP and employment growth of any Mexican state. The state government argues that this is because of the deployment of federal troops and marines to fight drug traffickers. Michoacán was the first state into which President Calderón sent the armed forces on taking office in 2006.

    Since the campaign formally started at the beginning of September at least 80 people have been killed by gangsters in the state, raising the year’s total to 286 (on 28 October). This is fewer than the 586 who perished in 2006, prompting Calderón’s decision to send in the troops, but up on the 259 who were killed by gangsters in the whole of 2010. The figures come from Reforma’s Ejecutómetro.

    The death toll rose precipitately in the last week of October when at least 14 people were killed (a dozen had their throats cut) on 28 October.

    The violence has affected the parties’ campaigning. All are taking security measures and restricting the impromptu walkabouts of their candidates.

    Opinion polls: End October opinion polls for the election in Michoacán showed the PRD’s candidate, Silvano Aureoles, running a poor third behind Luisa María Calderón of the PAN.

    Jalisco: The success of the Panamerican games, which concluded on 30 October,  has yet to prompt Emilio González , the governor of the state of Jalisco, to announce that he will run for the PAN’s nomination for the presidency.

    The games were a success on every level and gave the rest of Mexico a “feel good” boost. They were not interrupted by violence and were smoothly organised and culminated in a magnificent closing ceremony in Guadalajara.

    Mexico, as a competitor, also did surprisingly well, coming fourth in the medal table behind the US, Cuba and Brazil.

    Politically, the games could be significant because were quietly and efficiently policed, mostly by volunteers.

  • TRACKING TRENDS

    LatinNews 31 May 2012 Hits: 1967

    PERU | Growing fiscal surplus. Peru’s central bank (BCRP) revealed on 27 May that the country posted a fiscal surplus of 7% of GDP in the first quarter of 2012, one percentage point higher than the surplus registered in the same period last year. The BCRP explained it came as a consequence of higher government revenue, which increased by 0.4% in the period, and lower non-financial government spending, which decreased by 0.3%. This pushed up the government’s public savings by as much as 1.1 percentage points in the first quarter.

        While fiscal balances tend to be higher at the start of the year when governments have a full budget as most of the spending is yet to be allocated, Peru has been running a fiscal surplus in recent years thanks to its sustained economic growth. The government led by President Ollanta Humala is intent on continuing this trend, and has forecast a fiscal surplus of 1% of GDP by year’s end compared with the 0.8% registered in 2011.

        The government plans to achieve this by gradually decreasing its level of investment spending in the economy to allow private sector investment to pick up the slack. It seems that this strategy is working as the BCRP reported that net investments in the first quarter of 2012 were 28% of GDP, 2.5 percentage points higher than in the same period in 2011. According to the BCRP, “this is explained by an increase in both private sector investment and public sector investment”. This will be good news for Peru’s economy ministry which last month stated that while its official forecast is for the economy to grow by 6% this year, the figure could be even higher if there is an “important acceleration in private investment”.

    COLOMBIA | Awaiting OECD decision. The finance minister, Juan Carlos Echeverry, has revealed that the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is currently evaluating Colombia’s formal request to join. Echeverry explained that last year President Juan Manuel Santos submitted the formal request in a letter addressed to the OECD secretary general, José Angel Gurría, and that now the organisation is in “the process of evaluating it; and whether there is support from other countries”.

        According to Echeverry, although no clear schedule has been set, Colombia is confident its application will be successful. He said OECD membership would provide Colombia with “access to some of the best practices in the world” when it comes to monitoring tax systems and government spending.

        Echeverry also pointed out that Colombia could provide the organisation with some of its positive experiences in implementing revolutionary policies such as its ‘stoplight law’, which stops departmental and municipal governments from obtaining further credit once they have exceeded a debt limit, or its reforms to the distribution of oil and mining royalties in the country. In this way, Echeverry argued that membership of the OECD could result in a “type of cross-fertilisation [process] that could really help Colombia”.

    COLOMBIA | Charcoal assets sale. On 28 May Brazilian mining giant, Vale, announced that it had agreed the sale of its thermal charcoal operations in Colombia to Colombian Natural Resources (CNR) for US$407m. Colombia is one of the world’s top charcoal producers with 85.8m tonnes produced last year and in recent years it has attracted a lot of international interest due to the increase in demand for the fossil fuel in Asian markets.

        CNR is controlled by US investment bank, Goldman Sachs, and it is believed that its bid exceeded that of various other big international companies that were interested in the assets such as Glencore, Pacific Coal and Drummond. However, in a short statement to São Paulo’s stock exchange, Vale confirmed that it had accepted CNR’s offer and the deal will now be analysed by Colombian regulators.

        Vale’s coal assets in Colombia, which produce an estimated 4.5m tonnes a year, consist of three mines and a railway system in the department of Cesar; and a port services company which operates along Colombia’s Atlantic coast. It acquired them back in 2009 from local firm, Cementos Argos, for US$350m. However in its statement, Vale explained that the sale was part of a strategy to concentrate on its core iron business.        

    • BOA pushes for Spanish route

    On 24 May Bolivia’s state-owned airline, Boliviana de Aviación (BOA) revealed that it is in the process of obtaining permits to service airports in Spain. BOA general manager, Ronald Casso, revealed that the company has already been in contact with Spanish authorities and contracted legal representatives in Spain to help it with the process. BOA’s announcement comes as Bolivia’s largest airline, AeroSur, is facing certain bankruptcy and has been forced to stop all its flights including its lucrative service to Madrid. The Bolivian government has refused to bailout the privately owned AeroSur which aroused speculation that its goal is for Bolivia’s airline industry to be dominated by a state-owned firm once more